Accounting for optimism and pessimism in expected utility

We provide a preference foundation for decision under risk resulting in a model where probability weighting is linear as long as the corresponding probabilities are not extreme (i.e., 0 or 1). This way, most of the elegance and mathematical tractability of expected utility is maintained and also much of its normative foundation. Yet, the new model can accommodate the extreme sensitivity towards changes from 0 to almost impossible and from almost certain to 1 that has widely been documented in the experimental literature. The model can be viewed as “expected utility with the best and worst in mind” as suggested by Chateauneuf, Eichberger and Grant (Chateauneuf, Alain, Eichberger, Jürgen, Grant, Simon, 2007. Choice under uncertainty with the best and worst in mind: NEO-Additive capacities. Journal of Economic Theory 137, 538–567) or, following our preference foundation, interpreted as “expected utility with consistent optimism and pessimism”.     

应急物资公路运输路径优化模型的建立及求解

对应急物资运输时效性和可靠性两方面因素进行了数学描述,在分别对两个指标进行了无量纲化处理后建立了线性加权和效用函数模型,在具体算例中又将效用函数变形为关于λ的线性函数,最后通过坐标系作图将分析结果更直观地表达出来,以供应急物资调度人员根据其具体情况要求更方便快捷地选择应急物资公路运输的最优路径。     

Maxmin expected utility with additivity on unambiguous events

This paper provides a model of beliefs representation in which ambiguity and unambiguity are endogenously distinguished in the maxmin expected utility model of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989). Specifically, I first extend it by getting a representation of beliefs such that the probabilistic beliefs over each ambiguous event are represented by a nondegenerate interval, while the ones over each unambiguous event are represented by a number. I then suggest a behavioral definition of ambiguity. It provides a choice theoretical foundation for the Knightian distinction between ambiguity and unambiguity.     

我国城市地下管线综合管廊建设前景展望

综合管廊将各类公用管线集约化地敷设在同一条隧道内并进行集中管理,形成一种现代化、集约化的城市基础设施。本文结合我国城市地下管线综合管廊建设的实际,提出我国建设综合管廊的制约瓶颈和各方的争议焦点,并结合实例,探讨分析了BOT和PPP模式在共同沟投融资模式中的可行性,同时提出立法的必要性,相信随着各项体系的不断完善,综合管廊必将会在我国呈现快速健康发展的趋势。     

CO—CO型家族企业继承人选择分析

我国民营企业以家族企业为主要形式,但由于家族企业的复杂性,很难有突破。文章假设了一种具有广泛现实基础的CO-CO家族继承人选择模式,从经济学角度分析家族企业继承过程中的影响因素,并提出了构建家族企业选出恰当人选的环境氛围的建议。     

A strict expected multi-utility theorem

This paper integrates two key approaches to the representation of incomplete preferences over lotteries. The main result strengthens the conclusion of the expected multi-utility theorem in Dubra, Maccheroni, and Ok (2004) by ensuring that all utility indices involved are Aumann utilities (i.e., yield a strictly increasing expectation). The advantages of the method are demonstrated by parametrizing maximal elements and by providing a novel characterization of Aumann utilities.     

Kuhn’s Theorem for extensive form Ellsberg games

We propose the notions of mixed and behavioral Ellsberg strategies for extensive form games and prove that these strategies are outcome-equivalent if and only if mixed Ellsberg strategies satisfy a certain rectangularity condition. In addition, we show that not only the profile of Ellsberg strategies must be appropriately chosen but also the extensive form must satisfy further restrictions beyond those implied by perfect recall in order to ensure that each player will respect his ex ante strategy choice with the evolution of play.     

公众效用约束视角下强化国家审计的治理逻辑及其制度供给

社会公众参与国家治理日益成为国家治理体系的重要组成部分。在政治经济学框架下将社会公众参与国家治理的过程与功能提炼为公众效用约束,并通过构建一个简洁的地方政府公共支出结构选择模型阐明公众效用约束机制。结合公众效用软约束下中国地方发展型政府行为的经济影响以及直接构建公众效用约束机制面临的问题,从理论上解释了中央政府强化国家审计的治理逻辑。中国特色社会主义国家审计制度供给可以从审计方法流程、审计业务体系、审计结果运用等方面进行完善,全面评估效用结果、深度契合效用目标与有效实施问责约束,实现公众效用约束机制的间接构造,成为公共权力治理的“内部—经常性激励约束机制”,从而可以更好地适应当前发展阶段和体制背景下国家治理的需要。     

The Measurement of Consumption Efficiency Considering the Discrete Choice of Consumers

In this study we propose a mathematical definition of the consumption efficiency of multi-attribute products in the price–quality space. A new model, the discrete Range Adjusted Measure (RAM) model, is suggested as an empirical tool to measure the level of consumption efficiency. We further discuss the effect of consumption efficiency on the innovation incentive. Empirical work is made for the mobile phone market. We expect that the consumption efficiency concept will contribute to the extension of the traditional framework of production efficiency analysis on the one hand and to the understanding of the nature of innovation in a technology-intensive market on the other hand.JEL Classification: C67, D11, D12, D21     

Statistical Decision Problems and Bayesian Nonparametric Methods

This paper considers parametric statistical decision problems conducted within a Bayesian nonparametric context. Our work was motivated by the realisation that typical parametric model selection procedures are essentially incoherent. We argue that one solution to this problem is to use a flexible enough model in the first place, a model that will not be checked no matter what data arrive. Ideally, one would use a nonparametric model to describe all the uncertainty about the density function generating the data. However, parametric models are the preferred choice for many statisticians, despite the incoherence involved in model checking, incoherence that is quite often ignored for pragmatic reasons. In this paper we show how coherent parametric inference can be carried out via decision theory and Bayesian nonparametrics. None of the ingredients discussed here are new, but our main point only becomes evident when one sees all priors—even parametric ones—as measures on sets of densities as opposed to measures on finite-dimensional parameter spaces.