Winner’s effort maximization in large contests

We investigate the temporal structure that maximizes the winner’s effort in large homogeneous contests. We find that the winner’s effort ranges from a lower bound of 0 to an upper bound of one third of the value of the prize, depending on the temporal structure; the upper (lower) bound is approached with an infinite number of players playing sequentially (simultaneously) in the first periods (period). Nevertheless, when the number of players is large but finite, we show that winner’s effort is maximized when all players play sequentially except in the very last period and that, within the family of such optimal temporal structures, more players play simultaneously in the very last period than sequentially in all other periods. Furthermore, out of all players, the percentage of those playing simultaneously in the very last period goes to 100% as the number of players grows larger and larger.     

Pension return assumptions and shareholder-employee risk-shifting

Firm managers of defined-benefit (DB) pension plan sponsors reveal their primary motives — risk-shifting or risk-management — through their assumed expected rates of return (ERRs) on the plan assets. Managers with risk-shifting motives choose high ERRs to exploit flexible internal financing from employees via pension underfunding. Those with risk-management motives choose low ERRs to reduce future cash-flow uncertainty by improving the pension funding status. We examine if ERRs predict the firms’ future cash-flow allocation between pension funding and corporate investments, in a Japanese sample that mitigates the selection bias concern for US DB plan sponsors. Using dynamic panel regressions that control for lagged dependent variables, firms’ business prospects, and unobserved fixed effects, we show that higher ERRs precede higher capital investments, R&D expenses, and net pension obligations while revealing managerial aggression, especially among firms with high external financing costs. Higher ERRs predict higher market-to-book ratios for the firms with larger R&Ds and/or underfunding, suggesting that the risk-shifting channel of internal financing with high ERRs can help alleviate underinvestment problems.     

Forecasting stock returns with large dimensional factor models

We study equity premium out-of-sample predictability by extracting the information contained in a high number of macroeconomic predictors via large dimensional factor models. We compare the well-known factor model with a static representation of the common components with the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model, which accounts for time series dependence in the common components. Using statistical and economic evaluation criteria, we empirically show that the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model helps predicting the equity premium. Exploiting the link between business cycle and return predictability, we find accurate predictions also by combining rolling and recursive forecasts in real-time.     

“大千山”下的旅游资源整合研究

旅游资源是旅游目的地借以吸引旅游者的最重要的因素,也是旅游开发的条件之一。从构建“大千山”视角出发,对千山旅游资源的整合与开发进行探讨,以促进鞍山旅游事业的快速发展。     

“大千山”视角下的旅游资源整合研究

旅游资源是旅游目的地借以吸引旅游者的最重要的因素,也是旅游开发的条件之一。从构建"大千山"视角出发,对千山旅游资源的整合与开发进行探讨,以促进鞍山旅游事业的快速发展。     

Mining the past to determine the future: Problems and possibilities

Technological advances mean that vast data sets are increasingly common. Such data sets provide us with unparallelled opportunities for modelling and predicting the likely outcome of future events. However, such data sets may also bring with them new challenges and difficulties. An awareness of these, and of the weaknesses as well as the possibilities of these large data sets, is necessary if useful forecasts are to be made. This paper looks at some of these difficulties, using illustrations with applications from various areas.     

《反假冒贸易协定》检讨:前进还是倒退?

《反假冒贸易协定》目的在于超越《与贸易有关的知识产权协定》的规定,建立新的知识产权国际保护标准。然而,《反假冒贸易协定》制定过程中所采取的秘密的协商程序侵害了公众的知情权,违背了透明度原则。同时,由发达国家主导的谈判进程由于缺乏发展中国家的参与,导致了《反假冒贸易协定》在内容安排和制度设计上严重忽视了发展中国家的利益,破坏了知识产权国际保护的利益平衡。《反假冒贸易协定》以复边协定方式提高知识产权国际保护标准的立法方式是对由世界贸易组织和世界知识产权组织所确立的多边体制的一种倒退,会给知识产权国际保护体制增加更多的不确定因素。     

A large neighborhood search heuristic to establish an optimal ad-hoc hubbing strategy in the wake of a large-scale airport outage

Abrupt airport outages can cause diversions and fuel-critical situations for flights, leading to costly passenger misconnections. We develop a large neighborhood search heuristic to optimize the rerouting of flights bound for a disrupted airport to a hub airport that is not disrupted, with the goal of accommodating passengers on existing flights departing the non-disrupted hub. The objective of the heuristic is to identify and reroute flights to the ad-hoc hub(s) – non-disrupted hub airport(s) – that minimize the sum of passenger travel time and wait time. We minimize the passenger cost as the sum of passenger travel time to the diversion airport and wait time for a connecting flight at the ad-hoc hub airport, subject to on-board fuel and diversion airport capacity constraints. We use the heuristic to determine how a coordinated traffic management strategy could have diverted flights immediately following a real-world airport outage.     

Are consumers sensitive to large retailers' sustainable practices? A semiotic analysis in the French context

This paper seeks to discover consumer perceptions related to the adoption of sustainable transport practices by the French large retail industry. Using 20 semi-structured interviews and the semiotic square method, this research sheds light on a set of structured postures of consumers' perceptions according to a semantic axis: conjunction vs. disjunction. The recourse to a socio-semiotic reading here favours a deeper comprehension of the question of consumers' trust in large retailers. It proposes a typology of four distinct virtual strategies responding to the diverse consumer perceptions brought to light: persuasion, rejection, suspicion, and alignment. This leads to a discussion of the strategies offered by different large retailers to meet their consumers' perceptions and expectations. Lastly, the results outline the importance of deploying targeted communication and of aligning sustainable transport practices in accordance with the identified consumer postures.     

Inward investment and endogenous development. The convergence of the strategies of large firms and territories?

Inward investment is often understood as an inadequate instrument for self-sustained growth and as being responsible for the insufficient development of peripheral areas. Globalization and increasing competition within the markets, however, changed the firms' and regions' adjustment environment, and led to the convergence of spatial strategies of the large innovative firms and the development strategies of regional and local governments. This process contributes toward the integration of the external firms within local productive systems and, therefore, large innovative firms can play a relevant role in endogenous development processes. Although the convergence of strategies is not a phenomenon that can be generalized for all types of firms and territories, a new line of action opens up that permits improved productive restructuring and economic development, even in less favoured and peripheral regions.