基于West模型的房地产泡沫的实证研究--以北京、上海、深圳为例

本文简要回顾了关于房地产泡沫的研究框架,在West模型的基础上,运用房地产合理价格是租金资本化的原理,对北京、上海和深圳的房地产市场是否存在泡沫作了实证检验.结果表明:北京住宅市场、上海住宅市场以及深圳写字楼市场在样本期内的检验结果拒绝原假设,即市场存在着泡沫现象;北京写字楼市场、上海写字楼市场和深圳住宅市场检验结果为接受原假设,即不能判断市场存在泡沫现象.本文提出了一些政策建议.     

农户地租契约选择的经济逻辑:预期效用抑或损失规避

随着收入水平和社会保障水平的提高,农户的经济决策动机逐渐从风险(成本)最低转变为收益最大。但是,地租契约的不完全性等因素,可能使农户在选择地租契约时,需要在收益(租金)的可靠性和收益最大化之间进行权衡。文章理论分析表明,农户在选择地租契约时,其经济逻辑是损失规避而非预期效用理论。进而,文章利用中国家庭金融2015年调查数据,通过probit、IVprobit和似无相关回归模型检验了这一理论假说。研究结果显示,租金水平越高,农户越倾向于选择固定地租契约;消除内生性后的边际效应显示,租金提高每万元,农户选择固定租金契约的概率提高28.3%。机制分析发现,土地流转契约期限的增加会强化租金对农地转出户选择固定租金契约的影响。运用工具变量估计、交叉项和费舍尔组合检验三种方法进行稳健性检验后,该结论仍然成立。进一步的异质性分析结果表明,租金对固定地租契约的促进效应,在低收入农户中相对更高;在低收入农户中,契约期限不具有调节作用。研究结果为地租领域农户财产性收入的增加与政策预期的不一致,提供了理论解释与经验证据。基于此,文章提出为使农户通过地租获得更多的财产性收入,需要进一步完善农地流转契约治理机制等政策建议。     

公共租赁住房成本租金与定价研究

完善公共租赁住房定价机制是保持公共租赁住房建设与管理可持续发展的重要内容。本文在实地调研杭州、湖州、嘉兴、绍兴、台州、丽水等地区公共租赁住房开发成本状况的基础上,选取了较有代表性的几个地区,对公共租赁住房的成本租金进行了测算,并通过比较公共租赁住房租金定价的国际经验,对浙江省公共租赁住房的租金定价提出了建议。     

Rent-seeking in an emerging market: A DSGE approach

Due to the fact that rent-seeking is by definition an unobservable variable, measuring its size and evolution over the business cycle can be a daunting challenge. In this article, by embedding rent-seeking behavior in an otherwise standard open-economy DSGE model, we are able to derive a quarterly time series of this variable (expressed as a percentage deviation from the trend) for an emerging economy such as Brazil. The estimated series, spanning the period 2002Q1?2017Q4, shows a strong positive correlation with the “Commodity Super Cycle” of the 2000 decade and falls as a result of some political scandals and their ensuing investigations, among other driving forces. We also rely on the same model to assess how several shocks hitting the economy affect both rent-seeking and the relevant macroeconomic variables in our model. Barring monetary expansions, increased exports and higher income transfers to households, expansionary shocks are associated with lower rent-seeking activity. Factoring in these two sets of results, the upshot is that rent-seeking behavior shows a pattern of procyclicality in the Brazilian economy.     

The dynamics of within-group and between-group interaction

The article strengthens and provides a dynamic extension of the theory on collective rent seeking and private provision of a public good. Each individual agent within each group chooses in continuous or discrete time a continuous or discrete effort level. The combined effort within each group provides within-group public goods which are used as an input in the between-group n-group competition for an external prize. Intergroup mobility and intergroup warfare are allowed for. Each group and each individual agent within each group get a fraction of the prize based on a linear combination of equity and relative effort. A model/algorithm is developed generating analytical results and simulations illustrating how the interaction within and between groups proceeds through time.     

Rent control with rationing by search costs: A note

This note derives the long-run implications of rent controls when rent-controlled apartments are implicitly rationed to tenants who are more efficient in searching for apartments in the controlled sector. Rent controls are shown to involve transfers that essentially are from some to other tenants, as well as dead-weight losses due to higher search costs that are borne by tenants. Key to this analysis is the condition that, at the margin, rent plus the higher cost of search for a rent-controlled apartment must equal rent in the noncontrolled sector.     

Evidence and explanation for the Tariff-lobbying paradox: endogenous Tariffs fall as protectionist lobbying rises

Recent empirical evidence suggests that U.S. protectionist lobbying expenditures rose while U.S. trade barrier fell. We find that the same result holds in our panel data sample from 28 countries between 1995 and 2011. We find two economic drivers cause the paradox between increasing protectionist lobbying and decreasing trade barrier. First, trade barriers decline as country capital-labour ratio endowments rise because of the rising political and economic power of capital that lobbies for free-trade. Second, factor intensities in production become more similar as factor-intensity convergence. This flattens the production possibility curve between exportable and import-competing production so that changes increased magnification in both factor rewards. In our panel, the magnification parameters are twice as high for capital as for labour (8.6 vs. 5.1). And, the elasticity of the capital return with respect to country capital-labour factor endowment ratios (.59) is nearly twice those of labour (.22). Increased magnification causes thus labour’s increased lobbying for protection to be more than offset by increased capital lobbying against protection. In short, while an increasing labour lobbies for protection as countries advance, combined tariff and non-tariff protection (OTRI) decline significantly as advanced countries get richer. This explains the tariff-protectionist-lobbying paradox.     

人力资源管理强度对科技企业知识型员工创新绩效的影响

基于控制理论和程序公平理论,从反馈寻求行为与程序公平感视角探索人力资源管理强度对科技企业知识型员工影响的“黑箱”机制。通过对475名科技企业知识型员工的样本数据进行层次回归分析,证实人力资源管理强度对员工创新绩效有显著正向影响,反馈寻求行为在人力资源管理强度对员工创新绩效影响中具有中介效应,程序公平感在反馈寻求行为对员工创新绩效影响中具有正向调节效应。结论有利于丰富人力资源管理强度对科技企业知识型员工创新绩效作用机制相关研究,可为提升科技企业知识型员工创新绩效提供启示。     

对外直接投资与贸易品技术结构提升:韩国的经验及启示

本文基于韩国近20年来的经验数据分析证实,韩国通过对外直接投资实现了要素的全球优化配置,从而为贸易品技术结构提升创造了条件。