Keynes, uncertainty and interest rates

Uncertainty plays an important role in The General Theory, particularlyin the theory of interest rates. Keynes did not provide a theoryof uncertainty, but he did make some enlightening remarks aboutthe direction he thought such a theory should take. I arguethat some modern innovations in the theory of probability allowus to build a theory which captures these Keynesian insights.If this is the right theory, however, uncertainty cannot carryits weight in Keynes's arguments. This does not mean that theconclusions of these arguments are necessarily mistaken; intheir best formulation they may succeed with merely an appealto risk.     

IT集成项目的风险评价与控制

本文就 IT集成项目的风险问题进行了系统研究和探讨 ,其内容包括 IT集成项目的特点、风险的产生与特征、预测和评价、防范和控制等。     

新兴加转轨条件下中国证券公司的风险成因及监控

证券业是一个高风险行业 ,防范和化解风险是证券公司和监管机构的永恒主题。随着我国证券市场的蓬勃发展和逐渐规范 ,证券公司风险监控已经成为一项长期的重大任务。中国目前正处于新兴加转轨过程中 ,证券公司主要面临哪些风险 ?是如何形成的 ?在特定约束条件下怎样提高监控效率 ?围绕这些问题 ,本文首先对中国证券公司的风险及其成因进行分析 ,接着从实践的角度指出风险监控的现实约束 ,最后提出内外部风险监控协调与平衡的基本架构。     

基于CAPM的中国股市羊群行为研究——兼与宋军、吴冲锋先生商榷

本文首先对宋军和吴冲锋的《基于股价分散度的金融市场羊群行为研究》一文进行了分析 ,指出其在分析方法和论证逻辑两方面存在的问题。随后 ,本文以资本资产定价模型 (CAPM)为基础 ,建立了一个更为灵敏的羊群行为检验模型 ,并据此对我国股市进行了实证检验。研究结果表明 :在政策干预频繁和信息不对称严重的市场环境下 ,我国股市存在一定程度的羊群行为 ,并导致系统风险在总风险中占有较大比例     

Uncertainty and sustainability in the management of rangelands

We analyze a dynamic and stochastic ecological-economic model of grazing management in semi-arid rangelands. The ecosystem is driven by stochastic precipitation. A risk averse farmer chooses a grazing management strategy under uncertainty such as to maximize expected utility from farming income. Grazing management strategies are rules about which share of the rangeland is given rest depending on the actual rainfall in that year. In a first step we determine a myopic farmer's optimal grazing management strategy and show that a risk averse farmer chooses a strategy such as to obtain insurance from the ecosystem: the optimal strategy reduces income variability, but yields less mean income than possible. In a second step we analyze the long-run ecological and economic impact of different strategies. We conclude that a myopic farmer, if he is sufficiently risk averse, will choose a sustainable grazing management strategy, even if he does not take into account long-term ecological and economic benefits of conservative strategies.     

智力劳动的分配决定效应及模型

随着知识的积累与科技的进步 ,智力密集型劳动已经替代体力密集型劳动成为价值的最主要源泉。智力劳动的特征使得凝结在产品中的劳动含量与智力投资呈正相关 ,进而与其所形成的智力劳动力价值呈正向相关。因此 ,提高智力劳动力价值在分配决定机制中的权重 ,相对于现行以工龄为主体的工资决定体制而言 ,更能体现按“能”付酬原则 ,更能体现生产力的进步对分配的决定作用。以简单劳动力价值确定最低工资水平 ,然后依据每一阶次的智力劳动力价值差别确定工资水平差别 ,更能推动智力投资与劳动力资源的合理配置。以智力劳动力价值为基础的工资分配制度 ,可界定为一个基于贴现理论的微观静态分配模型。     

Risk-taking incentives of executive stock options and the asset substitution problem

Various theoretical models show that managerial compensation schemes can reduce the distortionary effects of financial leverage. There is mixed evidence as to whether highly levered firms offer less stock‐based compensation, a common prediction of such models. Both the theoretical and empirical research, however, have overlooked the leverage provided by executive stock options. In principle, adjusting the exercise prices of executive stock options can mitigate the risk incentive effects of financial leverage. We show that the near‐universal practice of setting option exercise prices near the prevailing stock price at the date of grant effectively undoes most of the effects of financial leverage. In a large cross‐sectional sample of Canadian option‐granting firms, we find evidence that executives' incentives to take equity risk are negatively rather than positively related to the leverage of their employers.     

存在风险条件下的资本市场投资预期收益模型研究

风险是指预期收益的不确定性,是指在将来一段时间内遭受损失的可能性.进行资本市场投资,必然存在风险.资本市场投资风险就是投资预期结果(预期收益损失)的不确定性,有投资风险,就会有投资者对其进行的预期.本文建立了存在风险条件下的资本市场投资预期收益模型,并由此得出了不同投资者的预期收益--风险偏好的不同投资选择.     

我国企业财务决策分析框架的构建

本文提出建立适应我国资本市场化条件下的企业财务决策分析框架问题,主要包括价值极大化目标问题、无风险利率的形成机制及测算、市场风险的定价、权益资本风险溢价、试算财务报表的编制、自由现金流量测算以及股权资本价值测算等.     

动态资本资产定价理论评述

本文主要讨论了动态资产定价理论的产生和发展.默顿和布里登使用贝尔曼开创的动态规划方法和伊藤随机分析技术,重新考察在由随机过程驱动的不确定环境下,个人如何连续地做出消费/投资决策,使得终身效用最大化.无须单期框架中的严格假定,他们也获得了连续时间跨期资源配置的一般均衡模型--时际资产定价模型(ICAPM)以及消费资产定价模型(CCAPM).这些工作开启了连续时间金融方法论的新时代.