项目管理软件系统的功能、分类和发展趋势

目前项目管理软件系统如雨后春笋般涌现出来，一方面使软件有更大的选择空间，另一方面也给软件的选择带来了困难。基于这一原因，章分析了目前项目管理软件的系统的功能、分类及其发展趋势，以利于需求选择项目管理软件系统。     

Managers’ segment disclosure choices under IFRS 8: EU evidence

We examine the impact of proprietary and agency cost motives on segment disclosure quality and quantity and how the adoption of the principle IFRS 8 affects this impact. By using hand-collected data, our results show that proprietary and agency costs play a relevant role in determining the quality and quantity of segment disclosure. We find that proprietary costs are a particularly relevant reason for providing lower segment disclosure quality post-IFRS 8. Our results also suggest that firms’ segment disclosure choice is dependent on disclosure dimension. These results contribute to the ongoing debate regarding IFRS 8 and have valuable implications for accounting regulators.     

Expected exponential utility maximization of insurers with a Linear Gaussian stochastic factor model

In this paper, we consider the problem of optimal investment by an insurer. The wealth of the insurer is described by a Cramér–Lundberg process. The insurer invests in a market consisting of a bank account and m risky assets. The mean returns and volatilities of the risky assets depend linearly on economic factors that are formulated as the solutions of linear stochastic differential equations. Moreover, the insurer preferences are exponential. With this setting, a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation that is derived via a dynamic programming approach has an explicit solution found by solving the matrix Riccati equation. Hence, the optimal strategy can be constructed explicitly. Finally, we present some numerical results related to the value function and the ruin probability using the optimal strategy.     

Sociology,risk and the environment: a material-semiotic approach

Abstract

Sociology has made significant contributions to the conceptualisation of risk and critique of technical risk analysis. It has, however, unintentionally reinforced the division of labour between the natural/technical and social sciences in risk analysis. This paper argues that the problem with conceptualisations of risk is not a misplaced emphasis on calculation. Rather, it is that we have not adequately dealt with ontological distinctions implicit in both sociological and technical work on risk between material or objective risks and our socially mediated understandings and interpretations of those risks. While acknowledging that risks are simultaneously social and technical, sociologists have not, in practice, provided the conceptual and methodological tools to apprehend risk in a less dualistic manner. This limits our ability both to analyse actors and processes outside the social domain and to explore the recursive relationships between risk calculus, social action and the material outcomes of risk. In response, this paper develops a material-semiotic conceptualisation of risk and provides an assessment of its relevance to more sociologically informed risk governance. It introduces the ideas of co-constitution, emergent entities and enactment as instruments for reconciling the material and social worlds in a sociological study of risk. It further illustrates the application of a material-semiotic approach using these concepts in the nuclear industry. In deconstructing social–material dualisms in the sociology of risk, this paper argues that a material-semiotic conceptualisation of risk enables both technical and social perspectives on risk not only to coexist but to collaborate, widening the scope for interdisciplinary research.     

Learning minimum variance discrete hedging directly from the market

Option hedging is a critical risk management problem in finance. In the Black–Scholes model, it has been recognized that computing a hedging position from the sensitivity of the calibrated model option value function is inadequate in minimizing variance of the option hedge risk, as it fails to capture the model parameter dependence on the underlying price (see e.g. Coleman et al., J. Risk, 2001, 5(6), 63–89; Hull and White, J. Bank. Finance, 2017, 82, 180–190). In this paper, we demonstrate that this issue can exist generally when determining hedging position from the sensitivity of the option function, either calibrated from a parametric model from current option prices or estimated nonparametricaly from historical option prices. Consequently, the sensitivity of the estimated model option function typically does not minimize variance of the hedge risk, even instantaneously. We propose a data-driven approach to directly learn a hedging function from the market data by minimizing variance of the local hedge risk. Using the S&P 500 index daily option data for more than a decade ending in August 2015, we show that the proposed method outperforms the parametric minimum variance hedging method proposed in Hull and White [J. Bank. Finance, 2017, 82, 180–190], as well as minimum variance hedging corrective techniques based on stochastic volatility or local volatility models. Furthermore, we show that the proposed approach achieves significant gain over the implied BS delta hedging for weekly and monthly hedging.     

Non-coercive influence: Scale development and validation based on resource and relational paradigms

To overcome competition in an increasingly network dependent market, retailers are required to influence upstream channel partners while sustaining relationships. However, the contemporary supply chain literature has not sufficiently leveraged the resource and relational paradigms to examine influence. Grounded on resource dependency theory and commitment-trust theory paradigms, this study describes conceptualization and operationalization of a 12-item scale for measuring non-coercive influence on upstream channel partners in retail supply chain management (R-SCM) context. The study is based on responses from 547 retail professionals in India obtained over four successive surveys. Psychometric properties were assessed using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The proposed scale demonstrates construct validity. Invariance-testing carried out over 4-levels of increasingly demanding equivalence confirmed cross-validation. Nomological validity of the scale was tested by evaluating association with suppliers’ intention to cooperate. The results indicate existence of three dimensions of non-coercive influence: collaborative intent, market intelligence dissemination, and operational support. Retailers can use the scale to assess their personnel's non-coercive influence behavior over suppliers.     

Forecasting U.S. money growth using economic uncertainty measures and regularisation techniques

This paper examines the out-of-sample forecasting properties of six different economic uncertainty variables for the growth of the real M2 and real M4 Divisia money series for the U.S. using monthly data. The core contention is that information on economic uncertainty improves the forecasting accuracy. We estimate vector autoregressive models using the iterated rolling-window forecasting scheme, in combination with modern regularisation techniques from the field of machine learning. Applying the Hansen-Lunde-Nason model confidence set approach under two different loss functions reveals strong evidence that uncertainty variables that are related to financial markets, the state of the macroeconomy or economic policy provide additional informational content when forecasting monetary dynamics. The use of regularisation techniques improves the forecast accuracy substantially.     

高速公路运营管理机构设置存在问题研究

高速公路具有与普通公路不同的运行特征 ,具有较强的社会效益和经济效益。文章论述了高速公路运营管理机构设置的必要性 ,我国高速公路管理机构设置的存在问题及解决对策     

Scaledt分布、杠杆效应和上证综指的VaR风险

与正态分布相比,上证指数收益率的经验分布具有尖峰厚尾特征,但用Scaled t-分布比正态分布可以更好地拟合上证指数收益率的经验分布。本文以Scaled t-分布假设下的GJR模型为基础,测量了上证指数收益率波动性的杠杆效应,即信息对波动性的不对称影响：并根据GJR模型应用Monte Carlo模拟方法,测定上证指数日收益率和持有期收益率的风险价值（VaR）。根据GJR模型提供的结果,上证指数30天、60天和90天持有期收益率的风险值分别为12．1％、17．8％、22．0％。用GJR模型比均值-方差模型和历史模拟方法计算的5％显著性水平VaR值更接近实际收益率。     

刍议团队管理三要素

本文论述的“团队管理”,不是仅着眼于“团队管理”的某一方面,而是从整体上把握“团队管理”的内涵,把“团队管理”真正看成一个有机的系统。本文先论述团队组织产生的具体背景原因,并把“形成团队的三要素”归纳为：物质的激励机制、向心力、挑战性的目标,再以此分析为基础,对“团队精神”、“行政组织”、“国有企业改革”等理论问题进行初步的探讨、归纳,力求准确而全面地揭贡“团队管理”的本质,为解决实践中出现的问题提供了一个新思路。