New tips from TIPS: Identifying inflation expectations and the risk premia of break-even inflation

This paper decomposes the break-even inflation rates derived from inflation-indexed bonds into inflation risk premia, liquidity risk premia, and inflation expectations. I estimate a common factor model with autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) errors that extracts co-movements from twenty-two monthly and quarterly indicators to identify these three components. The results indicate that the sharp declines in the 10-year and 5-year break-even inflation rates in 2009 reflect a substantial increase in liquidity risk rather than a decrease in inflation expectations. Break-even inflation rates underestimate inflation expectations over nearly the entire sample due to the liquidity risk premia carried by the inflation indexed bond yields. Also, the model-implied inflation expectations show better forecast performance for the average annual inflation rates than raw break-even inflation rates, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Surveys of Consumers inflation forecasts.     

Disorder in the Risk Order

Abstract

This paper studies the difference in global equity portfolios allocated by the criterion of minimizing the risk by using two different risk measures, the standard deviation and the conditional value at risk. An empirical analysis is performed on a comprehensive stock exchange database. The main hypothesis of the present work is that the choice of risk measure has crucial importance in portfolio optimisation, especially in those situations when the stock markets are extremely volatile and the return distributions are non-normal. The rationale behind establishing minimum-risk portfolios is to keep track of the highest possible risk reduction benefits from international diversification.     

The spillover effects of biofuel policy on participation in the conservation reserve program

This paper studies the spillover effects of rising biofuel production on participation in the Conservation Reserve Program. Landowner participation decisions are modeled using a real options framework. We develop a land use decision model that captures biofuel-driven structural changes in market demand and derive threshold conditions that trigger participation in the program. We then quantify the impacts of biofuel production on participation at both the national and state levels using Monte Carlo simulations. The model is also used to analyze how changes in the persistence of the biofuel production boom and in the volatility of farming returns affect conservation participation decisions. Policy implications of the results are discussed.     

Errors, robustness, and the fourth quadrant

The paper presents evidence that econometric techniques based on variance–L² norm–are flawed and do not replicate. The result is un-computability of the role of tail events. The paper proposes a methodology to calibrate decisions to the degree (and computability) of forecast error. It classifies decision payoffs in two types: simple (true/false or binary) and complex (higher moments); and randomness into type-1 (thin tails) and type-2 (true fat tails), and shows the errors for the estimation of small probability payoffs for type 2 randomness. The fourth quadrant is where payoffs are complex with type-2 randomness. We propose solutions to mitigate the effect of the fourth quadrant, based on the nature of complex systems.     

退休计划中养老年金购买决策的建模与分析

随着人类寿命的不断延长,社会个体面临越来越大的长寿风险,养老年金是规避长寿风险的有效工具。本文讨论个体退休计划中有关养老年金购买的重要决策问题,构建了一个能规避长寿风险的多期消费与投资决策模型框架,该框架把最优年金购买决策和传统的消费与投资选择问题有机地结合起来,以求达到规避长寿风险并获得消费和遗产的最大效用的双重目的。本文最后展示了特定参数设置下的计算结果以说明特定的社会个体应该如何构建能规避长寿风险的消费和投资策略,并分析了寿命的不确定性等因素对个体年金计划的影响。     

Indifference pricing with uncertainty averse preferences

We consider the indifference valuation of an uncertain monetary payoff from the perspective of an uncertainty averse decision maker. We study how the indifference valuation depends on the decision maker’s attitudes toward uncertainty. We obtain a characterization of comparative uncertainty aversion and various characterizations of increasing, decreasing, and constant uncertainty aversion.     

基于对冲基金的投资组合新架构研究

本文在分析传统的投资对冲基金组合架构存在不足的基础上,提出了新的资产组合构架模型,并通过美国市场的数据论证了对冲基金为何不是一个纯粹超额收益的制造者而更多是一个风险溢价的提供者以及将对冲基金与传统资产有机整合到一起的好处,为投资者优化资产投资组合提供了新的方法。     

基于顾客导向的物流企业风险预警

文中通过回顾企业风险预警管理相关文献,分析了物流企业风险形成主要影响因素,并结合物流企业运营特征,建立基于顾客导向的物流企业预警指标体系,运用灰关联分析方法评价物流企业顾客满意度,对物流企业的风险进行预警。     

Cross-sectional earnings risk and occupational sorting: The role of risk attitudes

This paper investigates to what extent individuals' risk preferences are correlated with the cross-sectional earnings risk of their occupation. We exploit data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, which contains a direct survey question about willingness to take risks that has been shown to be a behaviorally valid measure of risk aversion. As a measure of earnings risk, we use the cross-sectional variation in earnings that is left unexplained by human capital variables in Mincerian wage regressions. Our evidence shows that individuals with low willingness to take risks are more likely to work in occupations with low earnings risk. This pattern is found regardless of the level of occupation categories, region, gender and labor market experience.     

做市商制度对我国新三板市场的影响

场外交易市场建设初期,做市商制度在各国家及地区得到普遍应用。随着市场规模的扩大,交易制度逐步演变为混合性做市商制度。2014年我国新三板市场引入做市商制度,通过对市场整体以及协议转让、做市转让两类股票样本进行比较,文章认为在政策推动、市场主体积极参与等因素作用下,新三板市场整体规模、流动性均得到快速提高,做市商制度在流动性改善、价值发现等方面具有重要作用,挂牌公司具有较强的差异性对分层管理提出了现实需求。提高流动性仍然是新三板市场的重要任务之一,文章认为需要从制度、需求、供给、监管四个方面进行采取积极措施。