如何治理逃税:一个基于风险的概率模型

税收是经济的手段和社会的手段,但更多的是出于社会均衡发展的目的;税收是利他主义的,逃税则是利己主义的;边际逃税倾向与收入高低有明显的关系,逃税的风险也与其收益成正比,逃税被查处并受到惩罚的概率是政策的函数.收入公平合理性问题与税负公平合理同样是重要的治理因缘,治理逃税就成为一个全球性的课题.     

股指期货推出后对股票市场的影响及其风险控制

我国证券市场经过十余年的发展,已经初具规模,机构投资者迅速增加,但是尚缺乏一种有效的风险规避机制,影响了资本市场的健康发展。于是市场对发展股指期货的要求日益增强,我国发展股指期货的条件逐渐成熟,相关条例和交易规则已经建立,以沪深300为标的指数的股指期货即将推出。股指期货推出后将对股票市场产生重大影响,其中的风险和不利影响也不容忽视。     

论因伪造和变造票据而错误付款的风险负担

对因伪造、变造而票据错误付款的损失应由何人负担，各国立法不尽相同。最高人民法院关于审理票据纠纷案件有关规定就票据伪造变造的风险承担做出了规定，但失之偏颇。对于如何完善我国票据伪造风险负担制度，应结合外国立法、国际公约的有关规定。     

Modelling demand for lotto using a novel method of correcting for endogeneity

Modelling lottery sales as a function of the mean, standard deviation and skewness of the probability distribution of returns potentially gives insights into how the design of a game could be modified to maximise net revenue. But use of OLS is problematic because the level of sales itself affects values of the moments (and insufficient instruments are available for IV regression). We draw on the concept of a rational expectations equilibrium, developing a new regression model which corrects for endogeneity where the causal impact of the dependent variable on the right-hand side variables is deterministic. We apply the model to data on lotto sales from Spain. Using the Spanish data, we show that results provide more reliable guidance to lottery agencies because accounting for endogeneity leads to significantly different results from OLS and these results have superior performance in out-of-sample forecasting of sales. More generally, results prove consistent with the Friedman-Savage explanation of why people buy lottery tickets and with evidence from racetrack data that ‘bettors love skewness’.     

Risk,uncertainty, and leverage

Using mostly theoretical models and traditional risk/uncertainty measures (VIX index, panic, precaution, scary bad news, etc.), the current literature tries to clarify the risk/uncertainty-deleveraging pattern. The findings are not sufficient to explain the dynamic empirical relationship between modern risk/uncertainty indicators and leverage. We fill this gap in the literature by using US quarterly data, from 1985:1 to 2018:4, Granger causality tests, and a structural vector autoregression model. We find that commercial bank leverage rises when geopolitical risk and macroeconomic, policy, and equity uncertainty increase. Client-based business relationships of banks and high government borrowing from banks during crises periods are responsible for this relationship. We find that the leverage of broker-dealers and shadow banks declines when Chicago risk and macroeconomic, policy, financial, and equity uncertainty increase. We argue that the vulnerability of broker-dealers and shadow banks to the risk/uncertainty of the entire market system is responsible for this relationship.     

IT集成项目的风险评价与控制

本文就 IT集成项目的风险问题进行了系统研究和探讨 ,其内容包括 IT集成项目的特点、风险的产生与特征、预测和评价、防范和控制等。     

Are more risk averse agents more optimistic? Insights from a rational expectations model

We analyse a model of partially revealing, rational expectations equilibrium with diverse information, endogenous beliefs formation and uncertain distribution of risk aversion. More risk averse agents are then more optimistic. Such a positive correlation is important for collective decision analysis.     

世界主要医疗保障体系比较——对中国“医改”的启示

建立成功的医疗保障体系是一个世界难题,也是我国目前所面临的重大发展问题。为了更好地探索医疗保障体系的实质和便于比较世界上主要医疗体系的特点,本文分析了四种医疗保障风险分担机制,进而根据其特征将主要发达国家的医疗保障体系分为三类。通过分析这三类医疗保障体系的卫生费用构成并与中国的进行比较,得出针对中国医疗保障体系改革和发展的相应启示。     

股市暴涨暴跌的界定及比较——以中国、美国、英国、日本股市为例

本文运用经验分布函数对中、美、英、日四国股市的暴涨暴跌进行了界定,并对四国股市暴涨暴跌的表现进行了比较分析。相比其它三国,中国股市在过去15年间成长性最强,暴涨暴跌的幅度最大,表现出较强的"政策驱动型"特征。美、英、日股市的暴涨暴跌呈现出明显的"市场和事件驱动型"特征。英国和美国股市波动呈现出较强的同步性,但日本股市波动较为独特。政策建议上,各国应通力合作,以应对全球系统性风险对股市的影响;中国政府应加强股市的市场化建设,同时谨慎开放资本市场。     

Cost-effective compensation to avoid carbon emissions from forest loss: An approach to consider price-quantity effects and risk-aversion

Analyses were carried out on financial compensation to avoid loss of tropical forests and related carbon (C) emissions when marginal financial yield declined for land-use options with extended areas, and when a risk-averting perspective (modeled according to financial theory around the capital asset pricing model) is assumed. The approach in this study was to consider natural forest, forest plantation, pasture, and cropland simultaneously to investigate how an optimized land-use distribution may reduce the amount of compensation necessary to avoid C emissions from forest loss.The financial compensations derived were as high as US$ 176 per hectare per year when comparing natural forests only with the most profitable alternative (croplands). However, compensation decreased to US$ 124 for risk-neutral decision-makers, who would strive for optimized land-use allocation, and to only US$ 47 per hectare per year for risk-avoiders, who would look to maximize the reward-to-variability ratio. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the compensation under risk-aversion increased much less than under risk-ignoring when increased productivity of agricultural land-use or growing demand for agricultural products was simulated. It was concluded that considering appropriate diversification strategies and the well documented human behavior to avoid risks is an important step in developing cost-effective compensation policies.