Farmers’ perception of effective drought policy implementation: A case study of 2009–2010 drought in Yunnan province,China

Using a qualitative social research method at the local administrative level, this paper provides insight into the policy process in China and farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of policies implemented to deal with drought. Two villages in rural South-West Yunnan were purposefully selected for the study. The research started with the general assumption that China has a strong top-down hierarchal approach to policy processes and that funding dispersal is prioritised by the central government. However, the study found that funding proposals are prioritised for selection in a bottom-up, participatory manner from the local level. The study also found that farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of policy implementation were directly related to their past experience. Among the nine indicators used to measure the effectiveness of policy implementation at the local level, the farmers in the study area perceived access to roads as highly effective; water use efficiency projects, market demand, human mobility for jobs, and government funds as moderately effective; drought knowledge, community participation in planning, and governance structures as least effective; and the role of leadership as not effective. The study found that farmers’ adaptation at the local level is oriented towards short-term market rewards and income diversification. Farmers’ local-level adaptation is guided by government priorities and driven by their perception of tangible benefits. To ensure the effectiveness of policy implementation, long-term adaptation strategies, such as awareness raising, capacity building, watershed management, and source conservation need to be strengthened at the local level.     

Coping with the risk of internet connectivity in hotels: Perspectives from American consumers traveling internationally

A reliable and secure Internet connection may represent the only viable solution for international travelers to complete communication tasks in hotels (e.g., talking with loved ones at home, engaging in work-related activities, accessing restricted resources). Yet, the current cyber-environment accessible by connecting a mobile device to the Internet is characterized by a certain degree of risk, to which consumers generally respond via coping mechanisms. Based on data from a sample of 1017 American consumers who traveled internationally, this study validated a conceptual model that explains consumers' intentions to cope with the risk of connecting their mobile devices to hotel networks in order to access the Internet. The study recognizes consumers’ risk-benefit calculative mechanisms that influence coping intentions, and the roles of knowledge, habit, and convenience orientation in influencing the benefit-risk dyad.     

Evaluating the risk premium in the U.S.A. natural gas market: evidence from low-price regime

In recent years, the U.S.A. natural gas market has seen enormous changes. The expectations of abundant supply of shale gas and the slow U.S.A. economic recovery have pushed gas prices below US$ 4 MMBtu. Although shale gas is a new promising source of unconventional energy, investors face uncertain investment plans. In this study, we investigate the risk premium by comparing behaviour before and after the change point in agents risk perception. Unlike traditional empirical research on risk premium, we use the parametric, two-factor model of Schwartz and Smith (2000) to evaluate the implied risk premium term structure from futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). We compare our findings with other empirical results and find that the change point lies at the beginning of the low-price regime. When we compare periods before and after the change point, we observe that the risk premium changed, not only in sign, but also in magnitude.     

Risk and ethical investment: Empirical evidence from Dow Jones Islamic indexes

This paper contributes to the literature on the impact of the Shari’ah filtering criteria on the risk of Dow Jones Islamic indexes relative to their conventional counterparts. We show that Islamic and conventional indexes are affected by the same extreme events which can bias the estimation of the risk, especially the period of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008 and its aftermath which is characterized by a very high level of volatility. Then, we examine whether the Islamic indexes are more risky than the conventional indexes using different risk measures. We also analyze the performance of both indexes from various risk-adjusted performance measures. Overall, the Islamic indexes seem to be more risky than their conventional counterparts as well as exhibit a higher performance on the full period (1996–2013). The sample period is further divided into low volatility period and high volatility period based on the detection of structural breaks in the volatility. The results also show that both indexes have been affected by variance changes. We show that most of the Islamic indexes have higher level of risk than the conventional indexes, whatever the sub-periods. Consequently, this finding means that the Islamic indexes are riskier than the non-Islamic indexes. We also find that in most cases the Islamic indexes either outperform the non-Islamic indexes or there is no significant difference in performance between both indexes. These findings can be explained as a consequence of less diversification in Islamic indexes, leading to higher concentration risk in some sectors, such as basic material, industrial and technology firms. Further, we find some differences of risk and performance between the jurisdictions.     

Reducing perceived health risk to attract hotel customers in the COVID-19 pandemic era: Focused on technology innovation for social distancing and cleanliness

As an essential risk-reduction strategy, technology innovation is likely to play a key role in the hotel industry’s recovery from the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. However, its impact on customer decision-making behavior is unknown. Focusing on technology innovation for reducing guest interaction with employees and enhancing cleanliness, the purpose of this research was to examine the impact of expected interaction and expected cleanliness on perceived health risk and hotel booking intention. Three experimental studies were conducted using online consumer samples. The studies found that low levels of expected interaction through technology-mediated systems lead to low levels of perceived health risk. Perceived health risk mediates the relationship between expected interaction and hotel booking intention. In addition, high levels of expected cleanliness through advanced cleaning technologies moderate the impacts of expected interaction on perceived health risk. Importantly, the proposed perceived risk mechanism was effective in post-pandemic scenarios. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Stock market volatility: friend or foe?

Although a good deal of research effort has been allocated to understanding the time-series volatility of stock returns – as both market (or systematic) volatility and idiosyncratic (or non-systematic) volatility – the relationship of such volatility with cross-sectional volatility or dispersion of outcomes is sparse. Nevertheless, the quest to understand one must involve the quest to understand the other. In this paper, we investigate the dispersion of returns in relation to inter-temporal volatility, as well as the dynamic of dispersion of returns in generating a portfolio’s return outcome. We find that the level of such dispersion is highly significant for portfolio performance and the notion of risk.     

Cybersecurity: Risk management framework and investment cost analysis

As organizations accelerate digital transformation with mobile devices, cloud services, social media, and Internet of Things services, cybersecurity has become a key priority in enterprise risk management. While improving cybersecurity leads to higher levels of customer trust and increased revenue opportunities, rapidly evolving data protection and privacy regulations have complicated cybersecurity management. Against the backdrop of rapidly rising cyberbreaches and the emergence of novel cybersecurity technologies such as machine learning and artificial intelligence, this article introduces a cyber risk management framework, discusses a cyber risk assessment process, and illustrates a continuous improvement of cybersecurity performance and cyberinvestment cost analysis with a real-world cybersecurity example.     

基于房地产市场的我国系统性金融风险测度与预警研究

本文阐释了基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险形成机制,据此建立了分阶段、跨部门的房地产市场的系统性金融风险网络模型,并运用2006-2017年16家上市银行数据,分析和测度了我国房价大幅下跌所引发的系统性金融风险水平和结构,构建了基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险预警指标并进行测算。研究发现:在房价下跌30%的压力情景下,我国金融体系的潜在总损失总体呈级数式上升,年均增长22.70%;基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险值(SR)呈现先上升后波动下降的总体趋势;系统性金融风险(SR)的脆弱性指标(FLI)整体呈现波浪式振荡变化,且与房地产贷款/权益整体呈反向变动,系统性金融风险(SR)的传染性指标(CTI)在2012-2017年呈持续下降趋势,且与金融市场压力指数、金融机构间资产占总资产比重呈现出高度的一致性变化趋势。最后,基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险预警指标(SRWI)值呈收敛式振荡走势,表明基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险总体可控且呈收敛式下降。     

金融同业活动与实体企业经营风险——来自地区层面同业存单业务的证据

本文研究了地区层面金融同业活动对实体企业经营风险的影响。基于各省份金融机构开启同业存单业务的研究表明,地区层面金融同业活动显著提升了当地上市企业股价大幅下跌的风险。进一步研究表明,随着同业存单业务的发展,当地上市企业债务融资成本和风险水平有所上升,而业绩表现和市场价值有所下降。上述发现表明,企业融资链条变长后,信贷市场道德风险上升,部分企业因风险偏好增强导致经营风险上升,更容易突然出现负面事件而导致股价大幅下跌。本文的发现揭示了金融同业活动存在监管规避的可能性及其影响实体企业的潜在路径,凸显了完善金融监管以更好服务实体经济发展的重要现实意义。     

中国能源海外投资风险管理实证研究——以南苏丹石油投资为例

中国“21世纪海上丝绸之路”是全球政治、贸易新格局下改革开放的伟大构想,其核心价值在于通道价值和战略安全。能源战略安全是中国资本输出优先目标选择之一,而风险管理是中国能源海外投资亟待解决的问题。通过模糊综合评价法对南苏丹进行风险实证检验,着重建立风险评估相对科学的指标体系和定量评价方法以及防范风险政策框架。