电子商务的风险管理与审计研究

电子商务尽管现在处于低潮期，但是作为重要的变革力量，它仍然是2l世纪的一个必然趋势。另外，电子商务发展受阻的一个重要原因就是电子商务的安全问题，这一问题影响了消费的决策，也极大地改变了企业的整个风险结构。本从外部审计与内部审计两个角度分析了审计可以在应对电子商务风险中发挥的重要作用。从外部审计来看，数据完整性与机密性是网站审计与认证的重要方面，从内部审计来看，审计应该在包括了电子商务风险的全面风险管理框架内发挥重要的作用。     

The negative trade-off between risk and incentives: Evidence from the american whaling industry

This paper analyzes the trade-off between risk and incentives in the share contracts of the American whaling industry. Using a newly collected panel of 5378 individuals who sailed on more than 1000 whaling voyages from 1855–68, the response of sailors’ compensation to an increase in risk is estimated. The risks used to identify this response resulted from the commerce-raiding naval vessels of the Confederacy during the Civil War. As the Confederate cruisers sailed primarily in the Atlantic, and therefore posed far less of a threat to whaling voyages to other oceans, a quasi-experimental approach focusing on the differences between Atlantic voyages compared to others is implemented. The results are consistent with a negative trade-off between risk and incentives in the industry’s contracts. Moreover, evidence is found of selection among less risk-averse sailors and merchants into riskier voyages during the war.     

Decomposition of Fraud‐Risk Assessments and Auditors' Sensitivity to Fraud Cues*

Practitioners and regulators are concerned that when auditors perceive management's attitude or character as indicative of low fraud risk, they are not sufficiently sensitive to high levels of incentive or opportunity risks in their overall fraud‐risk assessments. In this study, we examine whether a fraud‐triangle decomposition of fraud‐risk assessments (that is, separately assessing attitude, opportunity, and incentive risks prior to assessing overall fraud risk) increases auditors' sensitivity to opportunity and incentive cues when perceptions of management's attitude suggest low fraud risk. In an experiment with 52 practicing audit managers, we find that auditors who decompose fraud‐risk assessments are more sensitive to opportunity and incentive cues when making their overall assessments than auditors who simply make an overall fraud‐risk assessment. However, this increased sensitivity to opportunity and incentive cues appears to happen only when those cues suggest low fraud risk. When opportunity and incentive cues suggest high fraud risk, auditors are equally sensitive to those cues whether they use a decomposition or a holistic approach. We discuss and examine potential explanations for this finding.     

Game-theoretic properties of Final-Offer Arbitration

Final-Offer Arbitration (FOA) is a dispute settlement procedure in which an arbitrator chooses one side's final position as the resolution. Game-theoretic models of FOA in two-sided interest disputes are reviewed, especially models of the disputants' final offer choices under uncertainty about the arbitrator's preferences. The extent to which the Brams-Merrill Theorem (1986) reveals optimal strategic behavior under FOA, and the implications for efficiency and equity, are assessed. Analysis of a model not satisfying the hypotheses of the Theorem suggests that, for some arbitrators, FOA can have an undesirable tendency. Another game model is used to address the question of how disputants' differential risk-aversion is reflected in their strategic behavior, and in the fairness of FOA outcomes. This calculation clarifies some apparently contradictory empirical evidence about FOA.     

A framework for the analysis of firm risk communication

In this paper, we propose a framework for the analysis of risk communication and an index to measure the quality of risk disclosure. Mainstream literature on voluntary disclosure has emphasized that quantity can be used as a sound proxy for quality. We contend that, in the analysis of the disclosure of risks made by public companies, attention has to be paid not only to how much is disclosed but also to what is disclosed and how.We apply the framework to a sample of nonfinancial companies listed in the ordinary market on the Italian Stock Exchange. To verify that the framework and synthetic index are not influenced by the two factors recognized in the literature as the most powerful drivers of disclosure behavior for listed companies, we use an OLS model. The regression shows that the index of disclosure quantity is not influenced either by size or industry. Thus, the synthetic measure can be used to rank the quality of the disclosure of risks.     

Analysing Perceived Downside Risk: the Component Value‐at‐Risk Framework

Multinational companies face increasing risks arising from external risk factors, e.g. exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices, which they have learned to hedge using derivatives. However, despite increasing disclosure requirements, a firm's net risk profile may not be transparent to shareholders. We develop the ‘Component Value‐at‐Risk (VaR)’ framework for companies to identify the multi‐dimensional downside risk profile as perceived by shareholders. This framework allows for decomposing downside risk into components that are attributable to each of the underlying risk factors. The firm can compare this perceived VaR, including its composition and dynamics, to an internal VaR based on net exposures as it is known to the company. Any differences may lead to surprises at times of earnings announcements and thus constitute a litigation threat to the firm. It may reduce this information asymmetry through targeted communication efforts.     

关于证券市场投资者风险偏好的实证研究

根据显现偏好理论,投资者的投资行为显现了其内在的风险偏好。在本文中,采用均衡分析方法,以中国证券市场中的指数序列为样本,综合期望收益、方差,自相关系数等统计量,准确反映证券组合的投资价值,揭示市场中投资者作为一个整体所具有的风险偏好和投资组合无差异曲线的形式。     

BOT方式中项目投资者的风险管理

对基础设施、特别是经营性基础设施的融资市场化，是我国投融资改革的方向。作为项目融资的方式之一，BOT越来越广泛的得到应用，并从最初只适用于外商投资项目，到适用于包括民营资本投资在内的各种基础设施项目。但由于基础设施的特点和BOT方式的复杂性，投资者存在较大的风险。如何识别、控制这些风险，以获得项目的成功，对BOT项目的投资者来说至关重要。从项目投资者的角度分析了BOT项目可能存在的主要风险及应采取的防范措施。     

退休计划中养老年金购买决策的建模与分析

随着人类寿命的不断延长,社会个体面临越来越大的长寿风险,养老年金是规避长寿风险的有效工具。本文讨论个体退休计划中有关养老年金购买的重要决策问题,构建了一个能规避长寿风险的多期消费与投资决策模型框架,该框架把最优年金购买决策和传统的消费与投资选择问题有机地结合起来,以求达到规避长寿风险并获得消费和遗产的最大效用的双重目的。本文最后展示了特定参数设置下的计算结果以说明特定的社会个体应该如何构建能规避长寿风险的消费和投资策略,并分析了寿命的不确定性等因素对个体年金计划的影响。