我国企业财务决策分析框架的构建

本文提出建立适应我国资本市场化条件下的企业财务决策分析框架问题,主要包括价值极大化目标问题、无风险利率的形成机制及测算、市场风险的定价、权益资本风险溢价、试算财务报表的编制、自由现金流量测算以及股权资本价值测算等.     

动态资本资产定价理论评述

本文主要讨论了动态资产定价理论的产生和发展.默顿和布里登使用贝尔曼开创的动态规划方法和伊藤随机分析技术,重新考察在由随机过程驱动的不确定环境下,个人如何连续地做出消费/投资决策,使得终身效用最大化.无须单期框架中的严格假定,他们也获得了连续时间跨期资源配置的一般均衡模型--时际资产定价模型(ICAPM)以及消费资产定价模型(CCAPM).这些工作开启了连续时间金融方法论的新时代.     

Growth, crisis and change in the insurance industry: a retrospect

The insurance industry currently finds itself in a revolutionary situation characterized, in part, by the impact of new direct marketing techniques, facilitated by new technologies; by corporate restructuring and the creation of international mega-corporations; and by the accelerating globalization of the industry. This article surveys recent research on insurance history with the aim of placing these developments in their long-run context. Three areas are examined for evidence of continuities and discontinuities with the past: namely, the impact of technology, the interaction between markets and organizational change, and the globalization of insurance and its relationship to economic growth.     

商业银行表外业务风险管理及信息披露

商业银行的表外业务一直以低风险、低成本、高利润成为各国银行业竞争的焦点。我国银行业如何在金融市场逐步放开的情况下 ,在同国外银行的竞争中立于不败之地 ,表外业务的发展状况、风险管理程度及信息披露的完善程度将发挥非常重要的作用。     

财政赤字的风险损益分析

财政赤字风险将引起收入分配不公 ,降低资本的效率和减少储蓄 ,危害物价稳定 ,引起各经济主体对赤字的路径依赖并损害经济增长的质量和可持续性。但财政赤字也会带来经济增长和经济结构优化的风险收益。评价和选择财政赤字政策时 ,必须比较赤字的风险收益和风险损失 ,以获取财政赤字风险净收益最大化。     

论市场所有权

本文作者首次在国内外提出了市场所有权理论，作者认为，过去我们对企业微观产权（包括有形产权和无形产权）研究较多，而忽视了对这些微观产权赖以存在的基础和实现条件－－市场产权的研究。实际上，市场本身也有一个产权界定及其制度安排问题，本文在界定产权概念的内涵，本质与功能的基础上，认为市场产权由狭义市场所有权，市场使用权（经营权），市场占有权和市场收益权等四个要素构成，认为市场产权具有五个方面的基本特征；市场所有权的稀缺性，市场所有权的准资本属性；市场所有权的排他性；市场经营权的可转让性；市场所有权收益的可计量性等，市场产权具有三种基本形式；市场国家所有制；市场区域共享制；市场全球共享制等，虽然市场市场产权天生具有国家排他性，归一国政府所有，但市场经营可以转让，各种贸易战的实质是争夺市场经营权，控制权和收益权，区域经济一体化和经济全球化是市场经营经营权的有限互换和交叉分享。     

QFII制与中国证券市场

随着中国融入世界经济的前进步伐，我国证券市场将迟早向国际资本开放。在目前人民币没有实现自由兑换及外汇管制的条件下，作为过渡措施的QFII制度将引入中国证券市场。本就QFII制度作了初步介绍，对该制度在中国证券市场推行的意义、引入条件及其可能带来的风险进行了初步的分析。     

The minimum variance hedge and the bankruptcy risk of the firm

In this paper, we analyze the influence of hedging with forward contracts on the firm's probability of bankruptcy (POB). The minimization of this probability can serve as a substitute for the maximization of shareholders' wealth. It is shown that the popular minimum variance hedge is generally neither necessary nor sufficient for the minimization of the firm's POB. Moreover, our model suggests a correction of the widespread view that a reduction in the variance of the future value of the firm is inevitably accompanied by a reduction in its default risk. We derive an analytical solution for the variance-minimizing hedge ratio of a firm exposed to both input and output price uncertainty that takes into account the issue of correlation. Based on this solution, we provide a graphical analysis to prove our claim that there is a fundamental difference between hedging policies focused on bankruptcy risk and those following conventional wisdom even if positive correlation constitutes a “natural” hedge.     

The Global Determinants of Direct Office Real Estate Returns

We investigate the determinants of direct office real estate returns by analyzing rents, capital appraisals, and total returns. A recently compiled global database of major cities in Asia, Europe, and the United States provides a unique opportunity to give a macro-view on the effects of economic growth and supply and demand factors on nominal real estate returns. The global database provides quarterly observations from 1986 to 1999. To address the smoothness problem of appraisal-based price data and regulated rents, we employ the Generalized Method of Moments to estimate a dynamic panel-data model. The model allows us to combine the cross-sectional and time-series dimension in our quarterly data. We find that gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment, vacancy rate, and the available stock all have an effect on real estate returns.     

反商业贿赂与政府采购机制的完善

政府采购已成为财政支出的重要组成部分.巨大的利润空间给政府采购带来了商业贿赂的风险.运用成本-收益理论、政府规制俘获理论和公平理论,分析其产生的根源及可能带来的后果,可采取相应措施消除政府采购中商业贿赂因子的现实途径.