Credibilistic risk aversion

In the probabilistic risk aversion approach, risks are presumed as random variables with known probability distributions. However, in some practical cases, for example, due to the absence of historical data, the inherent uncertain characteristic of risks or different subject judgements from the decision-makers, risks may be hard or not appropriate to be estimated with probability distributions. Therefore, the traditional probabilistic risk aversion theory is ineffective. Thus, in order to deal with these cases, we suggest measuring these kinds of risks as fuzzy variables, and accordingly to present an alternative risk aversion approach by employing credibility theory. In the present paper, first, the definition of credibilistic risk premium proposed by Georgescu and Kinnunen [Fuzzy Inf. Eng., 2013, 5, 399–416] is revised by taking the initial wealth into consideration, and then a general method to compute the credibilistic risk premium is provided. Secondly, regarding the risks represented with the commonly used LR fuzzy intervals, a simple calculation formula of the local credibilistic risk premium is put forward. Finally, in a global sense, several equivalent propositions for comparative risk aversion under the credibility measurement are provided. Illustrated examples are presented to show the applicability of the theoretical findings.     

How locus of control shapes intention to reuse mobile apps for making hotel reservations: Evidence from chinese consumers

This study unveils the cognitive mechanism that locus of control (LOC) dimensions (internal control, chance control, and control by powerful others) predict intention to reuse mobile apps for making hotel reservations. The predictions are assumed through the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) anchors and perceived risk. Drawn from an online survey with 457 Chinese participants, results show direct positive predictions of intention to reuse from UTAUT anchors including performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, and facilitating conditions. Perceived risk also negatively predicts intention. Effort expectancy mediates the links between internal/chance control and intention, whereas perceived risk mediates only the latter link. Facilitating conditions mediate the relationship between control by powerful others and intention. This study contributes to existing research by distinguishing the mechanisms that underpin LOC dimensions and technology re-adoption. Practitioners are recommended to improve booking apps by addressing the concerns of users with different LOC.     

The influence of auditor narcissism and moral disengagement on risk assessments of a narcissistic client CFO

Global capital markets rely heavily on independent and skeptical auditors as gatekeepers to provide assurance that corporate financial reports are free of material fraud. The rise of narcissism among the ranks of both client and audit professionals challenge this gatekeeper function. In addition, auditor moral disengagement may undermine auditor skepticism, further eroding public confidence in the integrity of financial reporting and the audit process. We conduct a quasi-experiment with 118 auditors from three international audit firms. In a simulated interview with a client CFO, we examine whether auditors underestimate risks of fraudulent financial statements due to the interactive effects of (1) client narcissism (manipulated verbally and nonverbally) and (2) auditor narcissism. We also examine the influence of auditor moral disengagement on client risk assessments. Results indicate that CFO verbal and nonverbal narcissism significantly influenced auditors’ assessment of management-related client risk. Moreover, auditor narcissism was found to interactively influence client risk inferences such that auditors higher in narcissism exhibited narcissistic tolerance (lower risk assessments) when the hypothetical CFO displayed high verbal narcissism. Auditor moral disengagement was negatively associated with client risk assessments. We discuss the implication of these findings on future audit judgment research, audit firm policy and training on maintaining auditor skepticism, and the audit oversight role of standard-setters.     

Sovereign risk and belief-driven fluctuations in the euro area

Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is calibrated to the euro area as of mid-2012. We show that a combination of sovereign risk in one region and strongly procyclical fiscal policy at the aggregate level exacerbates the risk of belief-driven deflationary downturns. The model provides an argument in favor of coordinated, asymmetric fiscal stances as a way to prevent self-fulfilling debt crises.     

金融衍生产品对上市公司风险管理影响实证研究

论文选取有色金属矿产行业以及能源交通运输行业229家上市公司作为样本，以上市公司是否使用衍生产品为解释变量，同时引用一系列控制变量，通过实证分析上市公司使用衍生产品是否会有效降低公司风险。实证过程涉及参数检验、非参数检验、相关性分析和回归分析，实证结果显示我国上市公司使用衍生产品会降低公司风险，这与西方主流的财务管理理论相一致而与我国学者以前的研究相反，由此推测我国上市公司运用衍生产品的能力逐渐娴熟。     

Sources of business fluctuations: Financial or technology shocks?

Despite the widespread belief that technology shocks are the main source of business fluctuations, recent empirical studies indicate that in the absence of financial frictions, a shock to the marginal efficiency of investment is the main source and is closely related to financial conditions for investment. We incorporate a financial accelerator mechanism and two types of financial shocks to the external finance premium and net worth in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment, the investment-good price markup, and the rates of neutral and investment-specific technological changes. This model is estimated using eleven US time series that include data on loan, net worth, the loan rate, and the relative price of investment. Our estimation results show that the (non-stationary) neutral and investment-specific technology shocks primarily drive output and investment fluctuations, while the external finance premium shock plays an important role for investment fluctuations. This financial shock induced substantial falls and subsequent sharp hikes in the external finance premium and caused boom–bust cycles over the past two decades.     

Pure meat – Public perceptions of risk reduction strategies in meat production

Experience has shown that both the assessment and implementation of new technologies in food production are challenged by negative assessments of the technologies by the public. This article seeks to deepen our understanding of the concerns that may underlie negative attitudes to various kinds of risk reduction strategy in meat production, with the aim of distinguishing between forms of risk reduction in terms of their acceptability. The paper reports the result of a focus-group study. Six focus groups with Danish citizens (N: 5–9) were conducted during May 2006. The design of the groups took a bottom-up approach and included elements of meat quality, meat safety and risk reduction strategies. The study shows the dilemma risk reduction presents to members of the public. On the one hand, people want safe meat; on the other, the study showed that with the exception of hygiene practices, people generally have an aversion to risk reduction strategies. Some variation was found, however, in the rejection of the strategies. Thus, more acceptable strategies are characterised by a low degree of technological interference, and by being close to the consumer’s experience in everyday life and/or familiar to the participants’ picture of meat production. It is also important that the strategy does not alter the quality of the end-product (meat) in an unfavourable way. The implications of the results and the inherent dilemma for meat safety policy formation are discussed.     

Floor-level premiums in private housing: the case of condominiums in Singapore

Using a sample consists of 3367 actual condominium sales transacted in resale market from May 2012 to April 2015 from the Singapore Urban and Redevelopment Authority, a hedonic pricing model is used to investigate for the presence of floor-level premiums in the private housing market, condominium, in District 23 of Singapore. Unit size, types of land tenure and the distance to the nearest mass rapid transit (MRT) station are also used as other independent variables. The estimated coefficient of each of these independent variables is statistically significant. Each of these independent variables also has positive estimated coefficient, suggesting that they have positive effects on condominium resale prices. Main findings are (a) there is a presence of floor-level premium; (b) the condominiums with a distance more than 400 m to the MRT station get higher resale prices; and (c) there is an increasing effect of floor level on condominium price.     

The going public decision and the structure of equity markets

The industries in which listed firms are concentrated in less developed equity markets are not random, nor entirely explained by the underlying composition of production. Listed firms and market capitalization are disproportionately concentrated in industries with low beta (measured with their beta with the market portfolio in the U.S.). We document a strong positive relationship between the industry-weighted country beta and the degree of market development across countries. Recent IPO activity confirms the result since new listings have higher betas than the average firm already in the market.     

Landslide risk perception survey in Angra dos Reis (Rio de Janeiro,southeastern Brazil): A contribution to support planning of non structural measures

The increasing magnitude and frequency of landslide-related disasters exposes weaknesses in disaster risk reduction (DRR) policy. One of the underlying reasons is that DRR policies tend to focus only on the physical aspects of the problem (i.e. mass movement processes) while neglecting the level of vulnerability of exposed populations to landslide threats, which affects the types and magnitude of adverse consequences. This neglect is a typical symptom of the remoteness that can exist between public administrators and local communities and undermines the implementation of participatory risk management. Certain dimensions of vulnerability depend on how communities relate to the issue of disasters based on their intuitive or rational judgment, i.e. their perception of risk. This paper seeks to shed light on the need for an understanding of risk perception based on the findings from a survey of residents in the city of Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to be taken into account in aiming at a more efficient landslide risk management policy. The survey was carried out through semi-structured face-to-face interviews with residents of three typical hillside communities in this municipality. In general, the study found that residents will often weigh landslide risks against other threats and opportunities existing where they live. It also found that community members find it difficult to see themselves as agents of change in the environment where they live and in mitigating landslide risks, and that better communication is needed between the government agencies involved in risk management and local residents.