Keep up with the winners: Experimental evidence on risk taking,asset integration,and peer effects

The paper reports the result of an experimental game on asset integration and risk taking. We find some evidence that winnings in earlier rounds affect risk taking in subsequent rounds, but no evidence that real life wealth outside the experiment affects risk taking. Controlling for past winnings, participants receiving a low endowment in a round engage in more risk taking. We test a ‘keeping-up-with-the-Joneses’ hypothesis and find that subjects seek to keep up with winners, though not necessarily with average earnings. Overall, the evidence suggests that risk taking tracks a reference point affected by social comparisons.     

Revisiting the risk-return relation in the Chinese stock market: Decomposition of risk premium and volatility feedback effect

The empirical results of the risk-return relationship are mixed for both mature and merging markets. In this paper, we develop a new volatility model to revisit the risk-return relation of the aggregate stock market index by extending the Realized GARCH model of Hansen et al. (2012) with the Wang and Yang (2013) framework, in which the overall risk-return relation is decomposed into a risk premium and a volatility feedback effect. An empirical analysis of three major Chinese stock indices reveals positive risk premium and negative volatility feedback effect, and those findings are stable across different markets and sub-samples. However, their relative magnitudes differ between markets and varies through time.     

Behavioral determinants of supply chain integration and coexistence

Economic theory considers physical production characteristics and related property rights as key determinants of the organization of an industry. Yet, we frequently observe coexisting governance modes within industries and firms, even when the transaction attributes of a commodity are homogenous. We test whether risk and time preferences, price expectations, and trust in supply chain types can explain variations and coexistence in governance. Specifically, we experimentally elicit economic preferences of forest managers in the Swiss wood sector. We find that all behavioral dimensions are related to the choice of sales channel. Most importantly, trust and expectations are key determinants in transferring property rights, while risk aversion, patience, and ownership structure explain the existence of plural forms at the firm level.     

How much is the gap?—Efficient jump risk-adjusted valuation of leveraged certificates

This paper develops a novel and highly efficient numerical algorithm for the gap risk-adjusted valuation of leveraged certificates. The existing literature relies on Monte Carlo simulations, which are not fast enough to be used in a market-making environment. This is because issuers need to compute thousands of price updates per second. By valuing leveraged certificates as multi-window barrier options, we explicitly model random jumps that occur at known times, such as between the exchange closing and re-opening. Our algorithm combines the one-day transition probability with Simpson’s numerical integration rule. This yields a backward induction scheme which requires a significantly coarser spatial and time grid than finite-difference methods. We confirm its robustness and accuracy through Monte Carlo simulations.     

Risk sentiment and firms’ liquidity in the French market

This paper investigates the impact of risk sentiment on market liquidity by using panel data. We use six risk word lists; uncertain, weak model, negative, legal, opportunity, and environmental & social responsibility word lists to measure the risk sentiment. Concerning the liquidity proxies, we use three measures, quoted spread, effective spread, and adverse selection component. The results indicate that an intensive risk tone and uncertain information in annual reports lead to decreased liquidity. In addition we find that risk sentiment variable impacts the liquidity but not vice versa.     

A study on risk retention regulation in asset securitization process

We study the impacts of the recently proposed risk retention regulation for asset securitization, i.e. the issuer has to retain a certain proportion of securitized assets. We also consider the frequently discussed measure to require the issuer disclose certain information of the securitized assets. In a dynamic model with asymmetric information between a risk-averse originating bank and a continuum of risk-averse investors, we find that it is impossible for a flat-rate retention requirement to be optimal for all asset types. Although both risk retention and information disclosure regulations are effective in reducing investors’ informational loss, neither can unconditionally enhance social welfare upon the unregulated case. For both measures, there are associated regulatory cost: risk retention regulation aggravates adverse selection problem because it undermines the channel of informational revelation by the choice of securitization intensity, and information disclosure requirement incurs a signalling cost by distorting banks’ securitization intensity in sending signals. Under an appropriate set of conditions we find that information disclosure requirement complements risk retention regulation when investors are sufficiently risk averse.     

Does risk sharing increase with risk aversion and risk when commitment is limited?

I consider a risk-sharing game with limited commitment, and study how the discount factor above which perfect risk sharing is self-enforcing in the long run depends on agents׳ risk aversion and the riskiness of their endowment. When agents face no aggregate risk, a mean-preserving spread may destroy the sustainability of perfect risk sharing if each agent׳s endowment may take more than three values. With aggregate risk the same can happen with only two possible endowment realizations. With respect to risk aversion the intuitive comparative statics result holds without aggregate risk, but it holds only under strong assumptions in the presence of aggregate risk. In simple settings with two endowment values I also show that the threshold discount factor co-moves with popular measures of risk sharing.     

人口老龄化背景下的中国养老保险风险分析

伴随着我国人口老龄化的不断加速,社会保障尤其是养老保险领域的压力也随之加大,我国当前的养老保险体系也存在着一些现实问题与不足之处。而这都将导致在养老保险体系中固有的筹资、基金投资运营风险上升,同时也将出现制度与政策等新的风险。文章认为,需加强风险管理,不断完善养老保险制度,才能积极应对风险与收益的平衡。     

Contained crisis and socialized risk: Unconventional monetary policy by the Bank of Japan in the 1890s

In the 1880s, Japan experienced its first stock investment boom, which was highly leveraged by the banking sector. In 1890, its first financial crisis occurred and triggered a de-leveraging process. With a high lower bound of the conventional interest rate intervention under the fixed exchange rate regime, the Bank of Japan decided to implement a massive securities purchases first time among major industrial economies and continued this unconventional policy until the early 1900s. We examine how the unconventional intervention for a decade affected the stock prices and the trade volumes, and show that the upward distortion in market pricing was considerable and that the equity-risk premium accordingly dropped, which meant socialization of the risk associated with the industrial investment.     

Tales from tails: On the empirical distributions of forecasting errors and their implication to risk

When evaluating the performances of time series extrapolation methods, both researchers and practitioners typically focus on the average or median performance according to some specific error metric, such as the absolute error or the absolute percentage error. However, from a risk-assessment point of view, it is far more important to evaluate the distributions of such errors, and especially their tails. For instance, a lack of normality and symmetry in error distributions can have significant implications for decision making, such as in stock control. Moreover, frequently these distributions can only be constructed empirically, as they may be the result of a computationally-intensive non-parametric approach, such as an artificial neural network. This study proposes an approach for evaluating the empirical distributions of forecasting methods and uses it to assess eleven popular time series extrapolation approaches across two different datasets (M3 and ForeDeCk). The results highlight some very interesting tales from the tails.