EXTREME VALUE THEORY IN FINANCE: A SURVEY

Extreme value theory is concerned with the study of the asymptotic distribution of extreme events, that is to say events which are rare in frequency and huge in magnitude with respect to the majority of observations. Statistical methods derived from it have been employed increasingly in finance, especially for risk measurement. This paper surveys some of those main applications, namely for testing different distributional assumptions for the data, for Value‐at‐Risk and Expected Shortfall calculations, for asset allocation under safety‐first type constraints, and for the study of contagion and dependence across markets under conditions of stress.     

金融发展对科技创新影响的实证研究--基于北京市和上海市的比较分析

文章采用1991-2012年北京市和上海市的时间序列数据对金融发展与科技创新之间的关系进行实证研究。首先介绍北京市和上海市金融发展和科技创新的现状,其次构建模型进行协整分析检验,并采用格兰杰因果检验方法来说明金融发展对科技创新的影响,研究结果表明：北京市的金融发展能够促进科技创新,而科技创新并不能反过来促进金融发展,两者之间是单向因果关系;上海市金融发展与科技创新之间是双向因果关系,金融发展促进科技创新,科技创新也能反过来促进金融发展。最后提出优化发展环境,促进金融发展,营造金融生态环境,加快金融改革创新等相关建议。     

二阶自回归效应有限时间最优相对保费稳健性

在汽车保险奖惩系统相对保费研究中,需要考虑随机效应的动态异质性。在假设随机效应是一个二阶自回归随机序列的条件下,李俊海、赵振英、常沙沙(2011)给出了有限时间下最优相对保费计算公式,但是没有研究该公式的稳健性。在相同条件下,可以证明该文保费公式的稳健性。     

Subsampling the distribution of diverging statistics with applications to finance

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution of statistics diverging at either known or unknown rates when the underlying time series is strictly stationary and strong mixing. Based on our results we provide a detailed discussion of how to estimate extreme order statistics with dependent data and present two applications to assessing financial market risk. Our method performs well in estimating Value at Risk and provides a superior alternative to Hill's estimator in operationalizing Safety First portfolio selection.     

Selective hedging with market views and risk limits: the case of Hydro-Quebec

This study presents how Hydro-Quebec manages its short-term financial risks. The quantitative hedging model is articulated over forward and volatility premia and constrained by a yearly risk limit provided by the firm's Finance Committee. The hedging solutions provide the optimal linear hedging parameters and option strike levels. The second part of the paper is devoted to a theoretical analysis of the sensitivity of the optimal solutions to changes in the premia, by means of the general implicit function theorem.     

Risk spillover analysis across worldwide ESG stock markets: New evidence from the frequency-domain

With the increasing global awareness of green environmental protection, the international environmental, social, and governance (ESG) stock markets are developing rapidly together with rising risk linkages across worldwide markets. Therefore, this study explores the risk spillover characteristics of international ESG stock markets in the time and frequency domains and constructs a risk linkage network to further explore the risk contagion mechanism. The results show that in most cases, the developed North American market is the core of outward risk spillover in international ESG stock markets. The entire system presents a small-world structure, and the internal regions display different risk spillover characteristics. Moreover, international ESG markets generally have strong time–frequency spillover and medium-frequency (a month to a year) spillover. In contrast, the high- (a day to a month) and low-frequency (more than one year) spillovers are located at relatively low levels, but they will rise significantly under sudden financial events. The empirical results expand the ESG stock market's theoretical framework and provide a reference for investors and market regulators to reduce the investment risk of ESG.     

The Fama-French model for estimating the cost of equity capital: The impact of real options of investment projects

We use the classic and modified Fama-French models to estimate the cost of capital of stock portfolios listed on selected markets. We compare four highly developed markets (US, EU, Japanese and global) and the Polish market as an alternative investment opportunity and a CEE emerging market. The performance of the applied procedures for estimating the cost of capital for company projects is examined and cost of capital is assessed with and without real option adjustment. We adjust the portfolios’ returns using the firms’ book-to-market ratios and idiosyncratic volatility as option proxies. The variability of cost of capital is evaluated using bootstrap methods. Our study shows a clear difference between bootstrapped distributions of cost of capital for the tested developed market and the Polish market portfolios. Wider confidence intervals of the estimated cost of capital of the studied Polish portfolios may result from political motivations in managing state-controlled companies. Our findings also indicate a clear difference between the cost of capital for tested portfolios with and without option adjustment. The widths of the estimated confidence intervals increase after option adjustment. The highest/lowest values of the cost of capital both with and without option adjustment are found for the US/Japanese market portfolios.     

New tips from TIPS: Identifying inflation expectations and the risk premia of break-even inflation

This paper decomposes the break-even inflation rates derived from inflation-indexed bonds into inflation risk premia, liquidity risk premia, and inflation expectations. I estimate a common factor model with autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) errors that extracts co-movements from twenty-two monthly and quarterly indicators to identify these three components. The results indicate that the sharp declines in the 10-year and 5-year break-even inflation rates in 2009 reflect a substantial increase in liquidity risk rather than a decrease in inflation expectations. Break-even inflation rates underestimate inflation expectations over nearly the entire sample due to the liquidity risk premia carried by the inflation indexed bond yields. Also, the model-implied inflation expectations show better forecast performance for the average annual inflation rates than raw break-even inflation rates, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Surveys of Consumers inflation forecasts.     

Disorder in the Risk Order

Abstract

This paper studies the difference in global equity portfolios allocated by the criterion of minimizing the risk by using two different risk measures, the standard deviation and the conditional value at risk. An empirical analysis is performed on a comprehensive stock exchange database. The main hypothesis of the present work is that the choice of risk measure has crucial importance in portfolio optimisation, especially in those situations when the stock markets are extremely volatile and the return distributions are non-normal. The rationale behind establishing minimum-risk portfolios is to keep track of the highest possible risk reduction benefits from international diversification.     

The spillover effects of biofuel policy on participation in the conservation reserve program

This paper studies the spillover effects of rising biofuel production on participation in the Conservation Reserve Program. Landowner participation decisions are modeled using a real options framework. We develop a land use decision model that captures biofuel-driven structural changes in market demand and derive threshold conditions that trigger participation in the program. We then quantify the impacts of biofuel production on participation at both the national and state levels using Monte Carlo simulations. The model is also used to analyze how changes in the persistence of the biofuel production boom and in the volatility of farming returns affect conservation participation decisions. Policy implications of the results are discussed.