Analysing Perceived Downside Risk: the Component Value‐at‐Risk Framework

Multinational companies face increasing risks arising from external risk factors, e.g. exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices, which they have learned to hedge using derivatives. However, despite increasing disclosure requirements, a firm's net risk profile may not be transparent to shareholders. We develop the ‘Component Value‐at‐Risk (VaR)’ framework for companies to identify the multi‐dimensional downside risk profile as perceived by shareholders. This framework allows for decomposing downside risk into components that are attributable to each of the underlying risk factors. The firm can compare this perceived VaR, including its composition and dynamics, to an internal VaR based on net exposures as it is known to the company. Any differences may lead to surprises at times of earnings announcements and thus constitute a litigation threat to the firm. It may reduce this information asymmetry through targeted communication efforts.     

Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle reconsidered

Benartzi and Thaler [The Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (1995) 73–92] offer a quasi-rational explanation for the equity premium puzzle. We reconsider their methodology and, making a simple modification to it, find that their analysis is not robust.     

DEFAULT RISK AND DIVERSIFICATION: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIONS

Recent advances in the theory of credit risk allow the use of standard term structure machinery for default risk modeling and estimation. The empirical literature in this area often interprets the drift adjustments of the default intensity's diffusion state variables as the only default risk premium. We show that this interpretation implies a restriction on the form of possible default risk premia, which can be justified through exact and approximate notions of "diversifiable default risk." The equivalence between the empirical and martingale default intensities that follows from diversifiable default risk greatly facilitates the pricing and management of credit risk. We emphasize that this is not an equivalence in distribution, and illustrate its importance using credit spread dynamics estimated in Duffee (1999) . We also argue that the assumption of diversifiability is implicitly used in certain existing models of mortgage-backed securities.     

关于证券市场投资者风险偏好的实证研究

根据显现偏好理论,投资者的投资行为显现了其内在的风险偏好。在本文中,采用均衡分析方法,以中国证券市场中的指数序列为样本,综合期望收益、方差,自相关系数等统计量,准确反映证券组合的投资价值,揭示市场中投资者作为一个整体所具有的风险偏好和投资组合无差异曲线的形式。     

BOT方式中项目投资者的风险管理

对基础设施、特别是经营性基础设施的融资市场化，是我国投融资改革的方向。作为项目融资的方式之一，BOT越来越广泛的得到应用，并从最初只适用于外商投资项目，到适用于包括民营资本投资在内的各种基础设施项目。但由于基础设施的特点和BOT方式的复杂性，投资者存在较大的风险。如何识别、控制这些风险，以获得项目的成功，对BOT项目的投资者来说至关重要。从项目投资者的角度分析了BOT项目可能存在的主要风险及应采取的防范措施。     

基于顾客导向的物流企业风险预警

文中通过回顾企业风险预警管理相关文献,分析了物流企业风险形成主要影响因素,并结合物流企业运营特征,建立基于顾客导向的物流企业预警指标体系,运用灰关联分析方法评价物流企业顾客满意度,对物流企业的风险进行预警。     

THEORIES OF CHOICE UNDER IGNORANCE AND UNCERTAINTY

Abstract. In this paper, Knight's distinction between risk and uncertainty, and its significance for economic analysis are examined. The paper consists of a survey of some recent developments on the theory of choice under uncertainty and some applications of these theories to problems for which Bayesian Decision Theory has not proved entirely satisfactory. Two problems are examined in detail. The first is that of finance and insurance and the second is that of risktaking behaviour with special emphasis on lotteries.     

论企业竞争风险

本文探讨了市场经济条件下企业竞争风险的内涵、生成机理及其竞争风险管理的基本原理。     

Risk-based classification of supplier relationships

The management and exploitation of external resources has increased and become a new source of business success. This has given rise to various new risks and therefore increased the need for collaborative risk management and learning. The objective of this paper is to explore the differences in risk management and learning across supplier relationships classified through network risks. The paper provides a theoretical review of supplier relationships and risk management, as well as a survey-based empirical study conducted in one case company's supply network. A set of network risks and risk-management measures is developed by means of factor analysis, and a supplier classification by means of cluster analysis. According to the results, the exploitation of collaborative risk management and learning is highest among the most strategic supplier relationships. A classification typology based on suppliers’ opinions helps both parties in the relationship and enables the efficient exploitation of mutual risk management with collaborative learning as one of its keystones.     

利率风险与债务期限结构的正反馈效应分析

本文在总结以前学者有关债务期限结构分析的基础上,提出了债务期限结构与利率波动之间可能存在正反馈机制。通过对经筛选的我国上市企业面板数据的实证分析,发现银行间同业拆借利率可以较好地反映企业债务期限结构的变化。而分行业的实证分析则表明,利率波动加剧会使绝大多数行业的短期债务比例降低,呈现显著负相关关系。但现阶段我国的利率形成受企业债务期限结构变化的影响不明显,长短期的面板Granger因果检验无法通过。最后,本文从利率风险及利率期限结构的角度对我国上市公司特殊的债务结构给出了新的解释。