Who said large banks don’t experience scale economies? Evidence from a risk-return-driven cost function

The Great Recession focused attention on large financial institutions and systemic risk. We investigate whether large size provides any cost advantages to the economy and, if so, whether these cost advantages are due to technological scale economies or too-big-to-fail subsidies. Estimating scale economies is made more complex by risk-taking. Better diversification resulting from larger scale generates scale economies but also incentives to take more risk. When this additional risk-taking adds to cost, it can obscure the underlying scale economies and engender misleading econometric estimates of them. Using data pre- and post-crisis, we estimate scale economies using two production models. The standard model ignores endogenous risk-taking and finds little evidence of scale economies. The model accounting for managerial risk preferences and endogenous risk-taking finds large scale economies, which are not driven by too-big-to-fail considerations. We evaluate the costs and competitive implications of breaking up the largest banks into smaller banks.     

GUEST EDITORIAL: Cutting corners in chemical risk limitation

The first genetically modified crops and foods to be approved for commercial use in the European Union have prompted intense controversy. Food retailers and processors have been forced to take up the concerns voiced by their customers. New networks of groups have formed to oppose the technology. In response to these pressures, regulators who approved the products have had to reconsider questions they had previously dismissed or officially resolved. Governments have devised more precautionary measures of various kinds. For example, they have increased the burden of evidence for demonstrating safety, have broadened the practical definition of the ‘adverse effects’ which must be prevented, and have devised marketstage precautions for such effects. These extra measures manage the risk debate as well as any risks. In such ways, the technocratic model of European harmonization is being challenged and superseded. This may allow differences in national practices to be viewed as valuable expert resources for a different harmonization model, rather than as deviations from a universal rational norm. Regulatory conflicts offer precautionary opportunities, which could lead to more flexible and democratic procedures. Theoretical perspectives – on risk, uncertainty, precaution, European integration, expertise and the internal market – help illuminate these possibilities.     

Firm's resilience to supply chain disruptions: Scale development and empirical examination

This paper expands our understanding of factors that contribute to development of firm resilience to supply chain disruptions. In doing so, we operationalize firm resilience to understand how supply chain disruption orientated firms can develop resilience to supply chain disruptions. We find that supply chain disruption orientation alone is not enough for a firm to develop resilience. Supply chain disruption oriented firms require the ability to reconfigure resources or have a risk management resource infrastructure to develop resilience. The way in which supply chain disruption oriented firms develop resilience through resource reconfiguration or risk management infrastructure depends on the context of the disruption as high impact or low impact. In a high impact disruption context, resource reconfiguration fully mediates the relationship between supply chain disruption orientation and firm resilience. In a low impact disruption context, supply chain disruption orientation and risk management infrastructure have a synergistic effect on developing firm resilience.     

The importance of the volatility risk premium for volatility forecasting

In this paper, we study the role of the volatility risk premium for the forecasting performance of implied volatility. We introduce a non-parametric and parsimonious approach to adjust the model-free implied volatility for the volatility risk premium and implement this methodology using more than 20 years of options and futures data on three major energy markets. Using regression models and statistical loss functions, we find compelling evidence to suggest that the risk premium adjusted implied volatility significantly outperforms other models, including its unadjusted counterpart. Our main finding holds for different choices of volatility estimators and competing time-series models, underlying the robustness of our results.     

Student abilities during the expansion of US education

The US experienced two dramatic changes in the structure of education in a 50 year period. The first was a large expansion of educational attainment; the second, an increase in test score gaps between college-bound and non-college-bound students. This paper documents the impact of these two trends on the composition of school groups by ability and the importance of these composition effects for wages. The main finding is that there is a growing gap between the abilities of high school and college-educated workers that accounts for one-half of the college wage premium for recent cohorts and for the entire rise of the college wage premium between the 1910 and 1960 birth cohorts.     

组织人力资本投资风险及原因的新探讨

组织人力资本投资存在高风险已成为共识,因此各种类型的组织为提升竞争力而进行人力资本投资需要充分考虑投资风险问题。如何规避风险成为各类组织投资时关注的焦点,但是必须要搞清楚人力资本投资风险产生原因才能有针对性的提出风险规避的对策。过去对人力资本投资风险产生原因的研究,多数是从人力资本载体的不确定性、投资收益的长期性和间接性的角度进行的。本文则从员工个人人力资本与组织人力资本存在区别的角度,剖析组织人力资本投资风险产生的原因,认为组织人力资本投资风险产生原因是多种因素的综合,其核心是人力资本的不可控性和人力资本个体的机会主义行为倾向,夹层是组织中存在可以钻空子的机会,外围是社会及组织中缺乏对机会主义行为的制约机制所造成的。这一分析有利于组织深入研究规避人力资本投资风险的对策,为组织人力资本投资风险决策提供科学依据。     

Equilibrium compound distributions and stop-loss moments

A convolution representation is derived for the equilibrium or integrated tail distribution associated with a compound distribution. This result allows for the derivation of reliability properties of compound distributions, as well as an explicit analytic representation for the stop-loss premium, of interest in connection with insurance claims modelling. This result is extended to higher order equilibrium distributions, or equivalently to higher stop-loss moments. Special cases where the counting distribution is mixed Poisson or discrete phase-type are considered in some detail. An approach to handle more general counting distributions is also outlined.     

Liquidity and Returns to Target Shareholders in the Market for Corporate Control: Evidence from the US Markets

In this paper we analyze how stock market liquidity affects the abnormal return to target firms in mergers and tender offers. We predict that target firms with poorer stock market liquidity receive larger announcement day abnormal returns based on the following considerations. First, target firms with poorer stock market liquidity receive greater liquidity improvements after a merger or tender offer. Second, deals that involve less liquid targets are less anticipated and/or more likely to be completed. Third, less liquid stocks have more diverse reservation prices across shareholders and thus require a higher takeover return. Consistent with these expectations, we show that abnormal returns to target firms’ shareholders are significantly and positively related to the difference in liquidity (measured by the bid‐ask spread) between acquirers and targets as well as the magnitude of target firms’ liquidity improvement.     

Optimal proportional reinsurance with a loss-dependent premium principle

ABSTRACT

Empirical studies suggest that many insurance companies recontract with their clients on premiums by extrapolating past losses: a client is offered a decrease in premium if the monetary amounts of his claims do not exceed some prespecified quantities, otherwise, an increase in premium. In this paper, we formulate the empirical studies and investigate optimal reinsurance problems of a risk-averse insurer by introducing a loss-dependent premium principle, which uses a weighted average of history losses and the expectation of future losses to replace the expectation in the expected premium principle. This premium principle satisfies the bonus-malus and smoothes the insurer's wealth. Explicit expressions for the optimal reinsurance strategies and value functions are derived. If the reinsurer applies the loss-dependent premium principle to continuously adjust his premium, we show that the insurer always needs less reinsurance when he also adopts this premium principle than when he adopts the expected premium principle.     

Efficient and accurate quadratic approximation methods for pricing Asian strike options

This study is on valuing Asian strike options and presents efficient and accurate quadratic approximation methods that work extremely well, both with regard to the volatility of a wide range of underlying assets, and longer average time windows. We demonstrate that most of the well-known quadratic approximation methods used in the literature for pricing Asian strike options are special cases of our model, with the numerical results demonstrating that our method significantly outperforms the other quadratic approximation methods examined here. Using our method for the calculation of hundreds of Asian strike options, the pricing errors (in terms of the root mean square errors) are reasonably small. Compared with the Monte Carlo benchmark method, our method is shown to be rapid and accurate. We further extend our method to the valuing of quanto forward-starting Asian strike options, with the pricing accuracy of these options being largely the same as the pricing of plain vanilla Asian strike options.