基于灰色关联的我国金融风险评价体系研究

文章结合我国经济运行的实际情况,构建了一个完整的金融风险评价体系,并对2008年危机前后我国金融风险状况进行实证检验。结果表明,危机前我国金融体系综合评价偏离最优参考数列严重,而2010年关联程度最大。依据检验结果提出了抑制通胀、积极协调人民币升值幅度等政策性建议。     

On the individual optimality of economic integration

Which countries find it optimal to form an economic union? We emphasize the risk-sharing benefits of economic integration. Consider an endowment world economy model, where international financial markets are incomplete and contracts not enforceable. A union solves both frictions among member countries. We uncover conditions on initial incomes and net foreign assets of potential union members such that forming a union is welfare-improving over standing alone in the world economy. Consistently with evidence on economic integration, unions in our model occur (i) relatively infrequently, and (ii) emerge more likely among homogeneous countries, and (iii) rich countries.     

How does a pay-as-you-go system affect asset returns and the equity premium?

When applying a differences-in-differences approach, equity returns and the equity premium are both estimated to be more than four percentage points higher after the introduction of a pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) system. In a realistically calibrated model, the PAYGO system is also found to increase the returns and the premium, although the effects are smaller than in the data. Intuitively, the system lowers asset prices, which in turn increases the importance of dividend risk. Since only equity is subject to dividend risk, equity returns become more volatile relative to bond returns.     

The rising skill premium and deunionization

During the past 50 years, the US economy has seen a rapid decline in labor union membership and a substantial rise in wage inequality. Since labor unions compress wages between skilled and unskilled workers, a rising skill premium encourages skilled workers to withdraw from the union. If this withdrawal is accompanied by a fall in the productivity of unskilled workers, firms become reluctant to hire the relatively expensive union workers, reinforcing the decline in the unionization rate. Evaluating this hypothesis, we find that the rise in the skill premium explains about 40% of the decline in the unionization rate.     

风险社会下大学生就业陷阱的治理路径探析

就业,是民生之本。在当前以市场为导向的就业体制中,严峻的就业形势和大学生就业预期的不确定性,使得"大学生就业陷阱"的风险几乎是随处可见。因此必须构建一个"政府、高校、学生"三方合力的治理路径:政府要完善审核监管制度、高校要加强就业安全教育引导、大学生要增强陷阱自我防范意识。     

家用电器与电子产品质量风险分析

家用电器与电子产品已成为现代生活必需品,其产品质量问题不容忽视。本文首先阐述了该领域的行业现状,指出行业内存在的普遍问题。进而对产品质量存在的主要风险、风险形成原因进行详细分析,并对质量风险级别进行研判。最后提出提高产品质量,降低产品风险的应对方法。本文可为相关检验检测人员、生产厂家、消费者提供参考。     

The relationship with REITs and bank loans: Capital structure perspectives

This paper discusses a research strategy which determines the optimum capital structure strategy and sets a reasonable required return of two-dimensional mortgages for borrowers and lenders with trade-off theory. We derived the optimum capital structure strategy of REITs and assess the mortgage risk premiums for lender. The results indicate that the REITs should maximize the value themselves by adjusting the optimum loan-to-value, make the most efficient use of the money. The lenders should seek borrowers who can pay mortgage interest continuously. At the same time, by maximizing mortgage premiums, they can set strategic objectives.     

Improving the relevance of risk factor disclosure in corporate annual reports

This research develops a model for assessing the quality of risk disclosures and applies the proposed model to four companies in the food production and processing sector. We contribute to the literature by extending prior work on risk disclosure quality using a longitudinal approach to assess the quality of risk reporting. While previous studies have described disclosure practices, this paper adopts a normative approach to disclosure. By suggesting a way of improving risk reporting disclosures, the paper provides guidance for current and future company managers. In line with previous research, this paper identifies certain problems with existing risk disclosures. Results suggest that company managers prefer providing disclosures that are symbolic rather than substantive. We argue that institutional factors and proprietary costs contribute towards and can explain this behaviour. In suggesting a way forward we highlight the role that stakeholders including managers, users, regulators and auditors can play in improving the quality of risk reporting. Flexibility in reporting could be maintained by adopting a properly monitored ‘comply or explain’ approach.     

贸易摩擦、宏观经济波动与经济开放程度的选择

本文构建一个包含关税冲击以及外汇风险溢价的两国开放经济DSGE模型,创新地揭示了关税冲击造成实际汇率波动的“直接效应”与“间接效应”,刻画了关税变动、贸易条件与实际汇率之间的动态关系与作用机制。我们深入分析了不同经济开放程度下贸易摩擦造成的宏观经济波动以及经济福利损失。模拟结果表明,在一定贸易开放程度下,外国加收关税一方面会导致本国贸易条件恶化,引发出口及产出下降;另一方面会导致本国汇率贬值,引发出口及产出增长。关税冲击发生后短期中汇率贬值效应占优,本国产出会出现小幅上升,随后贸易条件恶化效应逐步显现,产出持续下降。福利分析结果表明,本国适度提升贸易开放度,虽然经济福利损失会小幅上升,但福利损失增加幅度小于外国,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对优势;如果本国过度提高贸易开放度,则会导致本国福利损失大幅增加,并且大于外国福利损失增幅,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对劣势。因此,应适度逐步有序地提升贸易开放度。此外,本国适度推进资本账户开放的政策能够改善贸易条件,促进本国经济增长。     

金融同业活动与实体企业经营风险——来自地区层面同业存单业务的证据

本文研究了地区层面金融同业活动对实体企业经营风险的影响。基于各省份金融机构开启同业存单业务的研究表明,地区层面金融同业活动显著提升了当地上市企业股价大幅下跌的风险。进一步研究表明,随着同业存单业务的发展,当地上市企业债务融资成本和风险水平有所上升,而业绩表现和市场价值有所下降。上述发现表明,企业融资链条变长后,信贷市场道德风险上升,部分企业因风险偏好增强导致经营风险上升,更容易突然出现负面事件而导致股价大幅下跌。本文的发现揭示了金融同业活动存在监管规避的可能性及其影响实体企业的潜在路径,凸显了完善金融监管以更好服务实体经济发展的重要现实意义。