The effects of reference point, knowledge, and risk propensity on the evaluation of financial products

Evaluating and choosing a financial product often requires a trade-off between risk and returns on investment, as a riskier product may yield a higher return. We examine the effect of different reference points (i.e., a riskier reference vs. a safer reference) on the evaluation of a financial product when attributes are explicitly traded off during the evaluation. Our findings suggest that a safer reference increases the attractiveness of the focal product under evaluation, while a riskier reference point does not affect that evaluation. The safer reference point appears to facilitate the risk-seeking tendency in financial decision-making. Further, two types of consumer knowledge, namely, objective and subjective, can moderate the effect of the reference point. Subjective knowledge negatively affects attribute-based objective evaluations, promoting instead the use of external reference information. A discrepancy between the two types of knowledge (i.e., over-confidence), in particular, can cause a more biased evaluation.     

投资商需注意的公路特许经营相关法律探讨

当前我国公路特许经营存在法律规范体系的不完善是我国公路特许经营过程出现大量问题的一个重要原因。在现实中，相关法律的缺失使得我国很多地方采取的是“先特许后规制”的做法，直接导致了一些合同再协商中双方的机会主义行为。投资商在进入前需多方面了解公路特许经营的相关法律并全面衡量法律风险。     

主权债务风险跨国溢出研究——来自频域的新证据

本文从国家间主权债务风险溢出的持续期角度出发,采用基于广义方差分解谱表示的BK溢出指数方法,首次从频域视角对短期和长期下的主权债务风险跨国溢出效应进行研究。研究发现:第一,短期和长期下的主权债务风险跨国溢出效应均较为显著,并且时域下的总溢出主要由短期的风险溢出主导。第二,14个国家的短期和长期风险输出水平呈线性关系,但对于风险输入,不同类型国家出现分化并形成两个聚类,新兴市场国家的短期风险输入水平远高于长期,其具有较强的“短期脆弱性”。第三,风险输出国的自身风险越大,对他国的长期溢出水平越高,风险输入国的自身风险越大,接收他国的短期溢出水平越高,并且两两国家间的进出口规模、金融市场一体化水平和经济周期协同性与其长期风险溢出水平呈正相关关系,而与其短期风险溢出水平的关系并不显著。第四,短期和长期的主权债务风险溢出网络都呈现明显的区域聚集特征,并且各国在短期溢出网络中主要与同区域以及经济金融环境相似的国家连接,在长期溢出网络中则通过经贸关系将连接范围扩大至不同区域甚至经济金融环境差异较大的国家。     

Cheap money and risk taking: Opacity versus fundamental risk

We explore the effect of interest rates on risk taking and find that it depends on the type of risk involved. In a Bayesian setting, investments can be risky either because payoff-relevant signals are noisy or because the dispersion of the prior is high. While both types of risk contribute symmetrically to the overall riskiness of an investment project, we show that changes in interest rates affect risk taking in these two types of risk in opposite directions. This makes the net effect of interest rates on risk taking—as measured by the average riskiness of financed projects—necessarily ambiguous and dependent on the sources of risk.     

个人信用风险评价系统的统计量表法

本文围绕信用风险统计量表构建的评价测算系统,概要阐述其构造方法与系统运行机理,对其中基本数据结构与算法体系作出明确描述,并对系统开发设计要点给予解析说明。     

Risk,illiquidity or marketability: What matters for the discounts on private equity placements?

Using a clean sample of private equity placements over the period of 1999 to 2012, we examine the determinants of the discounts on private placements. Classifying various determinants into three categories, namely risk, illiquidity, and marketability, we show that risk and marketability are significant determinants of the discount on private placements over the entire sample period. However, we identify a structural break in the relation between the discount on private placements with illiquidity and, to a lesser degree, marketability. Specifically, we find that liquidity is a more important determinant during the pre-2003 period, but marketability becomes a more important determinant during the post-2003 period. We attribute the structural break to substantial changes in market microstructure during our sample period. Lower transaction costs make illiquidity less of a concern for investors, whereas more active trading by investors calls for a higher discount for the lack of marketability.     

Semiparametric Estimation for Non-Ruin Probabilities

We consider the classical risk model with unknown claim size distribution F and unknown Poisson arrival rate u . Given a sample of claims from F and a sample of interarrival times for these claims, we construct an estimator for the function Z ( u ), which gives the probability of non-ruin in that model for initial surplus u . We obtain strong consistency and asymptotic normality for that estimator for a large class of claim distributions F . Confidence bounds for Z ( u ) based on the bootstrap are also given and illustrated by some numerical examples.     

企业视角下人才流动动因研究

当前从企业角度分析人才流动动因的研究较少，且样本异质性不足。使用Price-Mueller雇员离职模型原理构建人才流动影响因素，在增强样本异质性条件下，采用有序和多分类离散Logistic计量分析模型，从企业视角定量研究其不同性质、结构形式、行业、规模、发展阶段的人才流动性风险概率和动因。结果显示：民营/私营企业、信息产业技能型人才流动风险较大，人才流动具有主营收入和人员的规模效应；各分类条件下流动影响动因差异显著，一般人才和技能型人才较多关注薪酬福利和社会保障，科研和管理型人才更注重培训、学习、晋升机会和企业文化、制度等，同时不少人才逐渐将工作和家庭生活质量与环境作为其流动主要动因，人才流动新特征逐渐显现。     

Airline daily fare differentiation in a medium-size travel market

This paper examines variation in airline fares for trips in a medium-size travel market. It develops a conceptual model of fares offered, and uses daily information about fare, plane and flight characteristics, and trip characteristics easily available on the internet. Based on this information it estimates a two-way fixed effects model of airline fares. The results show large differences in fares among the airlines, large variation in daily fares offered, and provide evidence of fare differentiation in the travel market analyzed.     

AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF SUPPLY CHAIN PERFORMANCE ALONG SEVERAL DIMENSIONS OF RISK

This research operationalizes several supply chain risk sources and investigates their relationships with supply chain performance. The responses of 760 executives from firms operating in Germany reveal that demand side and supply side risks do have a negative impact on performance whereas regulatory, legal and bureaucratic risks, infrastructure risks, as well as catastrophic risks do not. The analysis and results augment previous research regarding the impact of supply chain risks on the operational performance of firms and shareholder value and provide a detailed analysis of supply chain risk sources as contextual variables in strategic decision‐making.