地方政府财政支农支出与农村居民消费——来自中国29个省市面板数据的经验证据

本文在消费者最优消费路径选择的基本框架下,构建了一个政府财政支农与农村居民消费的动态最优化模型,理论分析表明:地方政府财政支农支出的增加,对于农村居民消费水平的提高具有促进作用。基于1995-2008年的省际面板数据,采用工具变量GMM方法对该结论进行的实证检验发现:在通过多工具变量克服变量内生性之后,地方政府财政支农支出对农村居民消费具有显著的促进作用,地方政府财政支农支出每增加1%,我国农村居民消费将增加0.1367%;进一步的因素分解显示,地方政府财政支农支出对农村居民消费的平均贡献度为8.72%,且有逐年增大的趋势。此外,财政支农支出对农村居民消费的影响存在区域差异性,即财政支农支出对我国中西部地区农村居民消费的影响程度大于东部地区。     

农村工业化还能走多远?

基于1987年到2008年28个省的面板数据,本文发现:无论是以就业人数还是以总产值来度量,乡镇企业规模的扩大都显著地缩小了城乡收入差距。通过雇佣农村富余劳动力以及生产的工业品在城乡间的自由流动,乡镇企业的发展抵补了一部分由于劳动力流动限制而造成的社会福利的损失。然而,本文更为重要的发现是:与其利润率的变化趋势一致,乡镇企业缩小城乡收入差距的年度作用递减;并且,在1998年之后,其作用的估计值在零附近一个很小的区域内摆动。这说明城乡间的产品流动对于生产要素流动不充分的补偿作用可能已经发挥到了极致——在我国高度竞争的工业品市场上,位于农村的工业企业是没有优势的,因为它们缺乏城市工业的规模经济与集聚效应。本文的政策含义是:只有改革现有户籍制度、加强劳动力在城乡间的流动、培育完善的要素市场,而非继续鼓励农村工业化,才能进一步缩小城乡收入差距,并最终消除城乡二元结构。     

The economic and environmental performances of rural districts in Italy: Are competitiveness and sustainability compatible targets?

This paper analyses the economic performances of the rural system and the level of land sensitivity to degradation in Italy. Three indicators (district value added, share of agriculture on total product, and a composite index of land sensitivity) were used to classify 784 Italian local districts into eight performance classes. Four classes share a combination of high environmental quality (in terms of land degradation), high (or low) economic performances, and high (or low) productivity of the primary sector. The remaining four are characterised by a combination of low (and declining) environmental quality, high (or low) economic performances, and high (or low) productivity of the primary sector. The eight classes were grouped into four ‘environmental quality’ types and four ‘target performance’ categories to discriminate among high- and low-performance districts by considering twelve additional variables within a Discriminant Function Analysis (DFA). 148 high environmental performance districts (18% of total) were identified mainly across the Alps and Apennine while 314 districts (41%) were classified in the lowest performance class and concentrated in flat areas of southern Italy. The districts with high environmental performances were characterised, on average, by medium to low district value added, moderately low economic weight of the primary sector, and tourism specialisation. Districts with high economic performances and low environmental performances were characterised by high sensitivity to LD, low district value added, high share of agriculture in total product, and the lowest productivity of labour in all economic sectors. In these districts the risk of entering a downward spiral of rural poverty and environmental degradation is potentially high.     

社会资本、扶贫政策与贫困家庭福利——基于贵州贫困地区农村家户调查的分层线性回归分析

根据社会资本分层、数据嵌套的特征,采用分层线性模型,利用贵州省贫困地区农村家户的调查数据,分析不同层级的社会资本影响包括扶贫政策在内的中间变量、进而对家庭福利产生的不同效应及其交互作用。研究表明,在物质资本和人力资本都比较贫瘠的农村贫困地区,社会资本在一定程度上发挥了"穷人资本"的功能,其减轻贫困、改善家庭福利的作用不仅显著,而且还存在进一步发挥的空间。     

Participation index: a measure to identify rural transport disadvantage?

This paper develops a composite participation index (PI) to identify patterns of transport disadvantage in space and time. It is operationalised using 157 weekly activity-travel diaries data collected from three case study areas in rural Northern Ireland. A review of activity space and travel behaviour research found that six dimensional indicators of activity spaces were typically used including the number of unique locations visited, distance travelled, area of activity spaces, frequency of activity participation, types of activity participated in, and duration of participation in order to identify transport disadvantage. A combined measure using six individual indices were developed based on the six dimensional indicators of activity spaces, by taking into account the relativity of the measures for weekdays, weekends, and for a week. Factor analyses were conducted to derive weights of these indices to form the PI measure. Multivariate analysis using general linear models of the different indicators/indices identified new patterns of transport disadvantage. The research found that: indicator based measures and index based measures are complement each other; interactions between different factors generated new patterns of transport disadvantage; and that these patterns vary in space and time. The analysis also indicates that the transport needs of different disadvantaged groups are varied.     

“三农”政策执行过程系统研究——基于经济社会属性分析

＂经济人＂理念常被用于解释经济现象中的利己行为,但是无论对于政府还是农民,社会性也是不可忽视的一个方面。在＂三农＂政策执行过程中,＂经济人＂和＂社会人＂属性共同对政策执行结果造成了影响,通过保定市的调查结果,验证了这一结论。     

农村多种养老保险整合提升的思路研究——以福建省泉州市为例

当前农村社会养老保险要覆盖的群体更加的细化,如何做到"分门别类"以满足不同群体的诉求与实施有效的统筹,是当前农村社会养老保险制度改革的重点和难点.本文以泉州市为例,抓住实现新型农保与被征地农民养老保险、农村养老保险的衔接这些关键问题,积极探索目前农村并存的多种养老保险的整合和提升.     

新型农村社会养老保险制度探析

新型农村社会养老保险制度的试点推行,标志着中国农村养老保障制度体系建设向前迈出了一大步。然而,新型农村社会养老保险制度还存在着制度运行的任意性和不稳定性、基金运行渠道和统筹层次限制了基金的保值增值能力、基金管理模式效率不高,补贴机制存在不稳定性等诸多问题。因此,建议:加快新型农村社会养老保险制度的立法保障;对个人账户养老金部分实行市场化管理;提高基金运营层次,拓宽投资渠道,合理划分中央和地方财政的责任,加大对中西部地区的财政支持等,以构建新型农村社会养老保险制度的长效运行机制。     

缩小广西城乡居民收入差距的实证研究和对策建议

文章通过剖析广西城乡居民收入差距现状,从收入构成视角分析城乡居民收入差距的成因,提出了缩小城乡居民收入差距的对策。     

农村公共产品供给的多元化体制构建

现行的农村公共产品供给制度安排的基本框架是“供给主导型”体制,在这种体制下,农村公共产品供给存在供给总量不足、供给结构失衡、供给绩效低下等问题。针对农村公共产品供给所存在种种问题,提出要构建“需求主导型”的多元化供给体制,而多元化供给体制的建立应是在相应机制的协调下多主体合作推动的结果。另外,又从机制设计的角度提出构建多元化供给体制的创新措施,并提出了相应的对策建议。