Seasonality patterns in dry bulk shipping spot and time charter freight rates

This paper investigates the nature of seasonality (deterministic and/or stochastic) in dry bulk freight rates, and measures and compares it across freight rates of different vessel sizes (Capesize, Panamax and Handysize), contract duration (spot, 1-year and 3-year time charters) and market conditions (peaks and troughs). Although, there is no evidence of stochastic seasonality, deterministic seasonality in freight rates is found to be varying from −18.2% to 15.3% in individual months within a year. Spot rates for larger vessels exhibit higher seasonal fluctuations compared to smaller vessels, although differences in seasonal fluctuations between sectors are eliminated as the contract duration increases. Also, for each vessel size, the seasonality declines as the contract duration rises. Asymmetries in seasonal fluctuations in freight rates over different market conditions are attributed to the high and low elasticities of supply expected under the respective market conditions. The results have implications for tactical shipping operations such as timing of dry-docking, chartering strategies and switching between freight markets.     

Estimating contract indexation in a Financial Accelerator Model

This paper addresses the positive implications of indexing risky debt to observable aggregate conditions. These issues are pursued within the context of the celebrated financial accelerator model of Bernanke et al. (1999). The principal conclusions include: (1) the estimated level of indexation is significant, (2) the business cycle properties of the model are significantly affected by this degree of indexation, (3) the importance of investment shocks in the business cycle depends upon the estimated level of indexation, and (4) although the data prefers the financial model with indexation over the frictionless model, they have remarkably similar business cycle properties for non-financial exogenous shocks.     

Risky business: How social psychology can help improve corporate risk management

Drawing on research in management theory, risk analysis, and the social sciences, this installment of Business Law & Ethics Corner promotes diversity of thought in corporate governance as not only beneficial to business growth and creativity, but also imperative to managing risk successfully. The article begins with a review of four major worldviews and the risk preferences of each. Next, it examines psychological processes that guide human decision making and greatly influence risk perception. The article then applies these worldviews and psychological phenomena to the case of risk management. It offers a critique of current risk management practices, drawing on evidence from the 2007–2008 financial crisis. The article concludes by promoting increased diversity of worldviews in corporate governance as a way to prevent the same risk blindness that led to the Great Recession.     

新疆乌昌地区城市休闲旅游市场开发研究

本文首先简述了城市休闲旅游的概念和一般特征,进而通过文献综合和市场调查,全面分析了乌昌地区城市休闲旅游的供需特征,并从市场培育和项目开发等方面提出一些对策建议。     

Urban vs. rural destinations: Residents’ perceptions,community participation and support for tourism development

This paper investigates and compares the effects of residents' perceptions of the impacts of tourism on community participation and support for tourism development across urban and rural world heritage sites (WHSs). Partial least squares – structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), has been employed to perform the analysis. The results reveal significant differences between the effects of residents' perceptions and community participation on support for tourism development in urban and rural destinations. However, the findings did not support any differences between the effects of positive perceptions on community participation, and the indirect effects of negative perceptions on support for tourism development. This study makes a significant theoretical contribution to the urban and rural tourism and residents’ perceptions literature by comparing rural and urban WHSs residents. Furthermore, this study has a number of practical implications for the local authorities of rural and urban WHSs.     

从中、日企业的成长环境看全球金融危机对两国企业的影响

试图从政治经济、社会文化以及企业内部运作机制的差异使全球金融危机对中日两国企业不同程度的影响进行比较,以期为中国企业顺利度过危机提供借鉴。     

金融诈骗犯罪的新型特征与定罪模式的思考

本文根据近年来我国金融诈骗犯罪的新型特征,结合我国金融诈骗罪的定罪模式特点,对其中的缺陷进行了分析,并提出了改进的建议。     

Spatial Interaction,Spatial Multipliers and Hospital Competition

The hospital competition literature shows that estimates of the effect of local market structure (concentration) on pricing (competition) are sensitive to geographic market definition. Our spatial lag model approach effects smoothing of the explanatory variables across the discrete market boundaries, resulting in robust estimates of the impact of market structure on hospital pricing, which can be used to estimate the full effect of changes in prices inclusive of spillovers that cascade through the neighboring hospital markets. The full amount, generated by the spatial multiplier effect, is a robust estimate of the impacts of market factors on hospital competition. We contrast ordinary least squares and spatial lag estimates to demonstrate the importance of robust estimation in analysis of hospital market competition. In markets where concentration is relatively high before a proposed merger, we demonstrate that Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) can lead to the wrong policy conclusion while the more conservative lag estimates do not.     

化解金融危机全球要共同稳定货币

2008年的全球金融危机标志着一个时代的终结,引起了人们的广泛思索。无论发达国家还是发展中国家,都在努力寻求化解危机的办法。浮动汇率制度解决不了金融稳定问题,或许多元化的货币政策是解决问题的方法之一。     

Analyzing economic market interactions as conflicts: New concepts to assess market-based policy instruments

Complementing market-based policy instruments with conflict analysis approaches provides a wider understanding of market situations and allows to identify minimal requirements regarding needs, power and conflict dynamics. If these are not met, a market cannot be successfully introduced or a liberalization process implemented. Conflict analysis offers a language better suited to the concerns of people negatively affected by new markets. Applying this language helps to counterbalance the predominance of economic concepts. This fosters mutual understanding and enhances the prospect for successful implementation of market-based policies. We illustrate the potential of conflict analysis with examples from water privatization and labeling.