The Chinese experience: The impact of financial restatements on firm value and its implications on the investigatory practices of regulators

We examine the relationship between restatements of prior period financial results and firm value in China. This relationship is relevant to the millions of global investors who purchase Chinese equity securities because Chinese regulatory authorities must focus on the restatement events that, in their judgment, most warrant investigation. We recommend that they focus their attention on restatement announcements (and the firms that announce them) that possess the characteristics that most impact firm value.Prior studies of the American equity markets found evidence of a relationship between the nature of the restatement announcements and firm value, as well as evidence that core account adjustments and high-magnitude adjustments affect firm value more than noncore account adjustments and low-magnitude adjustments. However, based on a sample of Chinese listed firms that made corporate announcements that appeared in the Asian press between 2003 and 2011, we only find mixed evidence in the Chinese equity markets in support of the former relationship, and no evidence at all in support of the latter relationship.In other words, restatement announcements in China do not impact firm value to the same extent, and in the same manner, as restatement announcements in America. Chinese regulators must thus develop policies that are unique to the Chinese markets in order to effectively prioritize their oversight activities on firms that issue restatement announcements.What factors should be considered by Chinese regulators? We identify a collection of corporate governance variables, as well as a smaller collection of financial variables, that are significantly associated with decreases in firm value. We also develop a set of regression analyses that utilize these variables to explain a significant portion of the variability of firm value during the sample period. Interestingly, however, we find no evidence that the growth patterns of the firms are significantly associated with changes in firm value.Using this evidence, we recommend the development of a model of regulatory guidance that is customized for the unique characteristics of the Chinese equity markets. We believe that this model can help Chinese authorities focus their attention on specific restatement announcements that most impact firm value.     

Testing for financial contagion based on a nonparametric measure of the cross‐market correlation

When contagion is defined as a significant increase in market comovement after a shock to one country, we propose a test for financial contagion based on a nonparametric measure of the cross-market correlation. Monte Carlo simulation studies show that our test has reasonable size and good power to detect financial contagion, and that Forbes and Rigobon's test (2002) is relatively conservative, indicating that their test tends not to find evidence of contagion when it does exist. Applying our test to investigate contagion from the 1997 East Asian crisis and the 2007 Subprime crisis, we find that there existed international financial contagion from the two financial crises.     

上海国际金融中心建设与长三角一体化：基于实体经济与金融业协同发展的思考

上海国际金融中心建设与长江三角洲区域一体化发展都是国家战略,两者的发展具有十分重要的战略意义和示范作用。金融本身不创造价值,其收益来自实体经济,其作用在于提高资源配置效率,实体经济与金融业协同发展,能够将实体经济与金融业相互争夺利益的"零和"游戏局面,转变为互利共赢关系。扎实的实体经济是金融中心建设的基础,实体经济的发展可以完善金融中心的功能,由实体经济带动的金融中心更加持久稳定,在长三角一体化过程中,实体经济与金融业协同发展能更好发挥规模经济,能构建更加完善稳定的产业链,发挥产业间的互利效应,发挥产业内的集聚效应。建议在上海国际金融中心建设以及长三角一体化过程中,以实体经济与金融业协同发展为本,以制造业与金融业协同为先,肩负起产业和区域经济稳定器功能,成立长三角基础设施投资银行。     

Bubble into reallocation: How bubbles improve capital allocation in China

This paper develops a theoretical framework to shed lights on the relations between the segmented financial market and the housing bubble in China. In our framework, capital misallocation across firms plays a central role. The segmented financial market causes discrimination against private enterprises and favoritism to state-owned firms. This biased financial system not only gives rise to capital misallocation across firms but also significantly pushes down the equilibrium interest rate in the formal financial market. The overly low interest rate in the formal financial market causes a rational bubble in a dynamically efficient economy. More importantly, the bubble improves capital allocation across firms by crowding out inefficient investment in the state-owned sector. Despite the role of improving capital allocation, bubbles may still reduce welfare by crowding out aggregate capital.     

Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets

Studies of financial market informational efficiency have proven burdensome in practice, because it is difficult to pinpoint when news breaks and is known by some or all the participants. We overcome this by designing a framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets. We demonstrate this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when the first goal is scored in a match as major news that breaks cleanly. There are pre-match and in-play mispricing and inefficiency in these markets, explained by reverse favourite-longshot bias (favourite bias). The mispricing tends to increase when the major news is a surprise, such as a goal scored by a longshot team late in a match, with the market underestimating their chances of going on to win These results suggest that, even in prediction markets with large crowds of participants trading state-contingent claims, significant informational inefficiency and behavioural biases can be reflected in prices.     

Do real estate investors trade on momentum?

Real estate markets are known to be less-than-efficient for many reasons, but what roles short-term trading plays are unclear. Do short-term investors bring additional risk to the market and cause prices to deviate from fundamental values? Based on an extensive dataset of property transactions and a policy shock that substantially raised the cost of short-term trading in Hong Kong, we estimate ‘real estate risk’ with and without short-term trading based on return predictability, return volatility, and price dispersion. Our results show that as short-term investors exit the market, market returns are less predictable and less volatile, while prices are less dispersed cross-sectionally. Consistent with herding models in behavioral finance, the findings suggest that short-term investors are momentum traders who do not enhance price efficiency.     

企业环境信息披露影响因素实证分析:2010~2011年A股重污染行业上市公司观察

以2010～2011年A股重污染行业上市公司作为研究对象,从产品市场竞争、公司治理角度考察了企业环境信息披露的影响因素。结果显示：公司治理结构的合理安排能够对提升企业环境信息披露质量产生一定的积极作用,但是产品市场竞争与公司治理机制之间的关系尚不明确。本文的研究结论意味着,在我国当前的制度背景下,要提高企业环境信息披露水平,保护利益相关者利益,有必要继续完善上市公司治理结构;同时,本研究也说明产品市场竞争并不能解释重污染行业企业环境信息披露的动机。     

社保基金与资本市场互动关系探索

在界定社保基金基本概念的基础上,深入剖析社保基金与资本市场的互动关系,揭示制约二者互动的主要因素,并提出相应的对策建议。认为,制约我国社保基金与资本市场良性互动的主要因素是社保基金缺乏专业的经营管理机构以及有效的监管机制;而且,资本市场不够成熟,投资风险大。因此,促进我国社保基金与资本市场良性互动的根本措施是推动制度和金融创新。     

公司治理结构特征与困境公司恢复——基于中国上市公司的实证研究

目前学者们对公司财务困境的研究主要集中在事前的困境预测上,而对公司陷入财务困境后如何恢复研究较少。本文选取2005—2009年国内被ST的上市公司为研究样本,将研究样本分为逐渐走出财务困境的公司（一类公司）和一直处于财务困境中的公司（二类公司）,从董事会特征、股权结构以及管理层持股这三个方面来比较分析这两类公司在陷入财务困境之后的公司治理结构差异对困境恢复的影响。研究结果表明,公司处于不同的财务情况下,大股东们对公司绩效的影响是不一样的。当公司逐渐陷入财务困境的过程中,大股东们对公司绩效没有显著性的影响;而在公司逐渐摆脱财务的过程中,大股东们对公司绩效有显著的正面影响,此时的公司治理关键在于股权集中度,大股东在公司摆脱财务困境中起到了重要作用。     

基于AHP法高校财务风险评价体系研究

随着高等教育事业的蓬勃发展,高校资金投入产出量的不断加大,财务风险逐渐凸显,主要表现在：贷款规模盲目扩大引发负债风险,校办企业经营不善产生投资风险,内控制度管理薄弱导致运营风险高等。文章通过层次分析法,分析现阶段高校普遍存在的新的风险,建立风险预警体制,找出影响高校财务风险的关键因素,并针对性地提出风险规避措施。