Financial crisis and persistence: evidence from sticky expectations consumption growth model

We estimate the degree of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth for the U.S. considering the effects of the Great Recession. The behavior of stickiness estimate in the crisis is somewhat as the U-shaped pattern. Our findings imply that during the crisis consumers’ attentiveness to aggregate information has slightly increased, thereby reducing the persistence of aggregate consumption growth. However, the reduction in persistence is transitory. Since 1980, the U.S. faced five recessions and in most of them the degree of stickiness declined, albeit temporarily.     

信息约束下的金融监管与银行声誉

如何在信息不对称的约束条件下降低金融风险、提高监管绩效,是金融监管中的一项重要课题.本文分析了信息结构对于监管的重要性,认为声誉机制的建立可以降低银行与监管部门之间信息不对称的程度和风险发生的概率,并运用KMFW模型,分析了不对称信息下银行声誉机制减少违规动机的过程,指出应该注重激励相容的制度安排,将外部监管与自律有机结合起来,促使银行自发选择接受监管且减少进行高风险投资的动机,这是信息不对称条件下提高监管效率的重要策略.结合我国实情,本文提出可通过银行风险评级、建立可置信的惩罚机制、完善银行内部治理机构、改进监管人员激励约束机制、构建和完善金融监管信息系统等措施,建立健全银行声誉机制,以进一步改善监管绩效.     

中部地区金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

在“中部崛起”这一号召之下，中部金融业的发展如何能更有效地为其经济增长起到支撑作用显得尤为重要。本文运用回归分析和格兰杰因果检验法对我国中部地区六省1995-2004年金融发展与经济增长的关系进行实证研究，探求二者之间的因果关系，并在此基础上给出相应政策建议。这一研究对中部地区形成科学而有效的发展战略，实现经济振兴是有益的。     

浅谈金融创新与金融风险管理

中国金融业已全面对外开放,中资银行要与外资银行展开全面的合作与竞争,金融业必须加大金融创新的力度.当前金融创新呈现出新的趋势和特点:金融监管的自由化与国际化、金融业务多元化、金融交易电子化、金融产品复杂化、金融服务个性化及金融机构同质化.在金融创新同时,也产生了新的金融风险,要加强对金融风险的管理,保证金融稳定,促进金融创新,提高中国金融业的国际竞争力.     

基层财政解困:一个财政体制变迁的分析框架

基层财政困难已影响到部分地方经济发展与社会稳定,是迫切需要解决的问题.基层财政陷入困境的最直接根源是财政体制不规范,事权与财权高度不对称.解困的根本出路在于规范政府间财政关系,进行财政体制创新.但财政体制变迁不能局限于边际微调,须考虑政府财政级次问题.本文提出推行"省管县"体制与撤消乡镇级政府两项改革,将政府层级由五级简化为三级,对应形成三级财政.并以这三级财政为架构,重新设计财政体制,合理配置政府间事权财权,以推动基层财政彻底解困.     

Asian Currency Crisis and the International Monetary Fund, 10 Years Later: Overview*

This paper is an overview of the Asian currency crisis in Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea in 1997–1998, with an emphasis on the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It provides a detailed account of the development of the crisis and analyses and evaluates the content of IMF advice and its consequences. The size of the IMF package for each of these three countries is judged to have been too small. This paper also has a comparative perspective; the Mexican crisis is reviewed as a precursor to the Asian crisis to see what the IMF learned, and how it prepared, for future crises. The causes of the crises and IMF conditionality for the post‐Asian crisis countries, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina, are also compared to the Asian crisis countries. By agreeing to maintain a fixed exchange rate, for example, the IMF is judged to have been “softer” in its approach to the post‐Asian crisis countries.     

我国金融安全评价体系及应用研究

准确评价我国金融安全,对于维护我国金融体系的稳定,有着重大而深远的影响。在阐述金融安全评价指标选取原则的基础上,构建了我国金融安全评价体系,该评价体系由国家宏观经济安全、金融机构安全和外部金融安全三个子系统构成,通过层次分析法确定各子系统及评价指标的权重,并运用功效系数法对我国1998-2004年的金融安全作出综合评价,力求对我国金融安全态势做出准确的判断,为预防、救助和处置措施提供科学依据。     

欠发达地区民间借贷的对策研究

近几年民间借贷案件数量不断上升,金融风险问题增多。从民间借贷风险防范的视角,以欠发达地区安徽省某地级市为例,介绍了欠发达地区民间借贷的现状,剖析了民间借贷存在的风险问题,如投资渠道不够畅通、民间借贷市场发展不规范、群众诚信意识不强、群众风险意识薄弱,提出风险防范建议,如加强政府对正规金融的支持、加强金融监管、加强诚信机制建设、增强民众金融素养。     

新农村金融:理论、成因及中国相关制度安排——基于建设社会主义新农村视角

发展农村经济、建设社会主义新农村离不开农村金融的支持,我国现存农村金融体制的种种缺陷已经成为阻碍农村进步的绊脚石。本文对我国农村金融体制进行考察,对其农村金融组织体系及配套的扶持政策进行评介,找出我国农村金融的不足,提出与社会主义新农村建设相适应的农村金融体制改革路径选择。主要结论有:我国农村金融体制改革,要发挥市场机制的导向作用,建立农村资金良性循环机制;政府应该承担主导作用,建立多层次、全方位的农村金融体制等。     

How to invest over the life cycle: Insights from theory

We analyse the state of the art in the field of life cycle portfolio choice, a recent strand of the literature on intertemporal portfolio selection. Life cycle models are designed to identify optimal savings and portfolio policies over the lifetime of investors. They can help to improve pension schemes by showing how these could be specifically tailored to the individual employee’s circumstances to overcome the ‘one-size-fits-all’ philosophy still prevailing in parts of the mandatory retirement savings system. To facilitate comparison, we first describe set-up, solution method and characteristic results for a basic model and then derive a general framework to classify existing contributions. We highlight the models’ strengths and weaknesses and assess their ability to resolve existing portfolio puzzles. Lessons from the literature are summarized and promising areas for further research identified. JEL classifications G11, D14, D91, H55