The future of foresight professionals: Results from a global Delphi study

How will foresight practice evolve into the next decade and beyond? How might its supply and demand factors self-organize? In 2012 a real-time Delphi study, entitled, “The Certification of Professional Futurists 2030,” was conducted among 142 experts from 29 countries to debate the forces that might diminish or enhance futures work. The study consisted of 14 projections out to the year 2030, ranging from whether the global futures field might “employ a viable form of certification for professional futurists,” to whether it might “share a common accepted understanding of futures assumptions, theory, methods, knowledge, and ethics.” Panelists identified themselves with various futures associations. This article presents the findings, including where there is dissent and consensus in the futures field over the likelihood, impact and desirability of the professionalization of its practice. Further scale development using factor analysis, ordered by the theory of competitive advantage, produced a scenario model of three market forces: assimilation, academicisation, or certification. The third force of professional certification by 2030 was deemed least likely and less desirable. This wide ranging survey therefore offers the futures field a common conversation protocol to rethink how it might redesign its value chain and differentiate itself against other professions.     

From data analysis to storytelling in scenario building. A semiotic approach to purpose-dependent writing of stories

Scenario building is one of the activities that companies frequently carry out in order to understand and communicate aspects or strategies about the future. Methodologies related to scenario building include, in one way or another, two phases, one oriented to the research of data and analysis, and the storytelling focused on communication. This paper identifies the transition from one phase to the other as a cause of loss of consistency and information that can jeopardize the whole process. It also develops a framework to build narratives or stories from the data obtained in the first phase, turning to diverse semiotic concepts in order to bridge this transition. This methodology is illustrated with an example obtained from Telefonica technology scenarios.     

企业经济业务重分类及其控制和审计研究

本文通过对经济业务分类和审计方法的演变分析,尤其是针对现在国内外流行的"业务循环"经济业务分类方法与根据业务循环,开展内部控制测试与审计中存在的重复和遗漏之不足,提出了崭新的企业经济业务新的分类标准,主张将企业全部经济业务分成广义购进、广义销售、货币收付和资料生成四大类型,然后研究在新的分类下每类业务的控制与审计重点,以达到消除目前在控制与审计活动中存在大量重复作业,节约审计资源,降低审计成本,提高审计质量与效率之目的。     

我国生物质发电产业的现状及存在问题

生物质发电是一种环境友好的可再生能源利用模式,在我国拥有广阔的发展前景。随着《中华人民共和国可再生能源法》的颁布,近年来生物质发电产业发展迅速,总装机容量实现翻番,但企业经营状况并不好,由于成本、技术、政策等多方面原因出现了大面积亏损局面,致使其发展陷入瓶颈。首先对当前生物质发电相关的法律政策体系进行系统介绍,然后结合生物质产业现状分析其存在的问题,并提出相关政策建议。     

基于模拟退火算法的智能天线广播波束权值生成方法

文章采用模拟退火与随机搜索相结合的优化算法,给出了智能天线广播波束赋形中特定形状广播波束所对应的权值生成方法。依据智能天线系统扇区覆盖模式的要求,并结合智能天线的阵列结构,利用模拟退火与随机搜索相结合的优化算法可得到每个阵元所需设置的幅度和相位权值。该方法适用于特殊广播波束的情况,对智能天线技术的应用具有重要意义。     

总图三维模型创建及与PDMS接口设计探讨

针对目前发电厂设计中前期工作、投标和总包项目的高要求和高标准,从工程"建立和完善发电工程设计系统、构建完整的多专业、二维、三维数据贯通设计平台"的角度出发,探讨和创新了电厂三维总图CAD设计及PDMS接口的贯通,为电厂的三维精细化设计及施工图阶段的图纸设计提供了可参考的平台。     

Suspending disbelief: Influencing engagement in scenarios of forest futures

Scenario analysis is an approach to long-term planning that informs decision-making in contexts of highly uncertain future conditions. Scenario-based studies are rapidly growing in popularity, yet many aspects of the method are not fully understood. Participants' willingness to suspend disbelief in possible futures is an integral component of scenario-based studies, essential for considering alternative future scenarios, yet little is known about the factors that affect it. Participation in a scenario project does not necessarily imply willingness or ability to suspend disbelief; participants may not suspend disbelief simply upon request. However, the scenario literature says little about the aspects of scenario-based studies that influence suspension of disbelief.This article explores the factors that influenced the suspension of disbelief in one scenario exercise about the future of Canada's forests. Participants differed in their abilities to suspend disbelief in the scenarios in part because of their past experiences and expertise in particular areas, and their assessments of probable and desired future outcomes. Elements of the project design and implementation influenced participants' abilities to engage the scenarios. The results have implications for those interested in using scenarios for helping people and communities envision possible - and sustainable - futures.     

基于异质性特征的新生代农民工培训研究

正确把握新生代农民工群体的异质性特征是提升其培训效果的前提。当前新生代农民工培训中存在的问题,既包括整个农民工群体培训的一般性问题,还包括新生代农民工群体培训的特殊性问题。新生代农民工培训的特殊性问题,源于将所有农民工看作一个同质的群体,集中表现为培训的针对性不足。本文论述了新生代农民工的异质性特征,并在此基础上分析了这一群体培训存在的特殊性问题,提出了具有针对性的差异化培训管理方略。     

中国生物质能发电的费用分摊机制

研究中国生物质能发电费用分摊机制,对于促进可再生能源产业乃至低碳能源产业发展具有重大政策指导意义。本文将现有的生物质能发电费用分摊机制分为费用来源、费用支付和配额交易三个环节分别进行解读,并对我国自2006年以来的六个生物质能发电补贴方案的执行情况进行了系统整理,发现当前的费用分摊机制已经无法满足生物质能发电产业发展的需要。同时,在对生物质能发电费用分摊机制的三个环节的研究中,发现现行的生物质能发电费用分摊机制存在费用来源太少、支付机制不合理、配额交易机制不清晰等问题。以上问题有违《可再生能源法》中规定的有利于促进可再生能源发电利用和经济合理原则。本文针对这些问题提出了相应的对策建议:拓宽征收电价附加资金的渠道,明确电价附加收入的调配方式,规范配额证的交易秩序。     

可再生能源绿色证书政策的理论研究

可再生能源发电具有的正外部性等特点,需要政府相关机构对其进行价格管制,以保证和促进可再生能源电力的发展。目前主要的管制方法有固定电价政策、竞价上网政策以及可交易的绿色证书政策等。本文从理论的角度对绿色证书政策进行研究,分析了可再生能源发电市场和绿色证书市场的本质和价格的决定问题,阐述了绿色证书政策对资源配置的促进作用以及对绿色证书政策的制约和影响因素。