双循环新发展格局下制造业企业开放式创新研究

在国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局下,如何深化我国制造业企业创新发展是一个重要课题。基于开放式创新理论,本文建立了开放式创新系统动态模型,并以玉柴集团为案例,分析企业开放式创新在要素获取、结构协同、功能提升和环境适应四个方面的表现并发现了其创新亮点。基于此,在双循环新发展格局下提出了积极顺应动态环境,多渠道获取创新要素,模块演进、重点突破,创新为本、合理利润等制造业企业开放式动态创新的对策建议。     

Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method

Monitoring business cycles faces two potentially conflicting objectives: accuracy and timeliness. To strike a balance between these dual objectives, we propose a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to identify turning points in real time with a sequential stopping time as a solution. Using four monthly indexes of real economic activity in the United States, we evaluated the method’s real-time ability to date the past five recessions. The proposed method identified similar turning-point dates as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with no false alarms, but on average, it dated peaks four months faster and troughs 10 months faster relative to the NBER announcement. The timeliness of our method is also notable compared to the dynamic factor Markov-switching model: the average lead time was about five months when dating peaks and two months when dating troughs.     

An Eclectic Approach to Estimating U.S. Potential GDP

Rennison (Comparing alternative output gap estimations: a Monte Carlo approach, 2003) has provided simulation-based evidence showing that the joint use of extended multivariate filters and structural vector autoregression models is optimal for estimating potential output. We use this approach to estimate the two components of potential GDP: the full-employment labour input and trend labour productivity. This decomposition is useful for identifying sources of fluctuations in potential output. It reveals, for example, that the vigorous growth rate of U.S. potential GDP recorded during the second half of the 1990s is attributable to a fall in the structural rate of unemployment and a marked upswing in trend productivity growth.     

20世纪90年代以来我国经济周期新特征及"反周期"经济政策的有效性

20世纪90年代以来，随着经济转轨过程的逐步深入和市场化程度的不断提高，我国经济周期出现了一系列新的特点和变化趋势：从波动性质上看，经济周期开始向“增长型”转变；从周期长度看，经济周期有向尤格拉中周期演变的趋势；此外，世界经济周期对我国经济周期的影响不断加深，二者有同步化的发展趋势。然而，当前我国的市场经济体制尚不完善，为保持经济的持续稳定增长，需针对90年代以来我国经济周期出现的新特征，增强“反周期”经济政策的有效性，以减少经济周期波动可能产生的负面效应。     

用产品生命周期进行财务管理

本文扩展了产品生命周期模型，提出用产品生命周期进行财务管理的系统模型。在产品生命周期的每一阶段，应采取不同的财务策略。同时。应保持足够的战略柔性，适时修正已经制定的财务战略以最大化企业的利益和股东的利益。财务战略的制定和执行要从公司作为一个整体的角度来进行，应与公司的其它职能部门进行必要的协调以实现公司的目标。     

区位决策视角下的集群生命周期分析

本文在对当前产业集群生命周期研究述评的基础上,将集群周期划分为成长、成熟、衰退、再发展四个阶段,并从企业区位决策的视角对集群生命周期的不同阶段进行分析。然后通过考察企业区位决策因子的动态变化和集群区核心产业的区外出口量增长率、主导产业的企业数量、修正后的空间基尼系数来对生命周期阶段进行划分,分析不同阶段下政府的决策行为。     

企业需求、企业能力与企业社会责任的匹配探讨——一种新的企业履行社会责任的理论分析框架

本文首先研究了企业履行社会责任的模式并提出了企业社会责任的层次模型;其次,将企业需求与个人需求在企业生态学的范畴下进行了类比,提出了企业需求层次模型,并将企业需求归纳为企业履行社会责任的动力;再次,本文运用企业生命周期原理,将企业成长状况看作是衡量企业具有一定的履行社会责任能力的体现;最后,通过将企业需求、企业能力与企业社会责任进行匹配探讨,揭示了企业履行社会责任的动力和能力原理及其可能的行为,并得出了一些有意义的结论。     

产品寿命周期理论与标准化工作的探讨

根据实现带全局意义的两个根本性转变的要求，阐述了应用产品寿命周期理论对企业标准化工作的作用和意义。     

Can oil shocks explain asymmetries in the US Business Cycle?

We consider whether oil prices can account for business cycle asymmetries. We test for asymmetries based on the Markov switching autoregressive model popularized by Hamilton (1989), using the tests devised by Clements and Krolzig (2000). We find evidence against the conventional wisdom that recessions are more violent than expansions: while some part of the downturn in economic activity that characterises recessionary periods can be attributed to dramatic changes in the price of oil, post-War US economic growth is characterized by the steepness of expansions. First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: September 2001     

企业文化对知识型员工组织承诺影响的研究

为了探讨提高知识型员工组织承诺的有效路径,文章针对现有研究中的一些不足,提出了不同企业文化导向对知识型员工感情承诺及继续承诺影响的研究框架,从理论上探讨了员工导向文化与任务导向文化如何对知识型员工组织承诺产生影响,以期为企业提高知识型员工的组织承诺提供理论指导.