Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depends on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In the Asian economies, macroeconomic policy has been a complementary tool along with industrial policy to foster the diversification of production and capabilities. Inversely, in the case of the Latin American countries, long periods of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, combined with the weaknesses (or absence) of industrial policies, contributed to the loss of capabilities and lagging behind.     

中国式“荷兰病”与中国区域经济发展

文章从实证角度深入探讨了中国式"荷兰病"通过"支出效应"、"资源转移效应"和"人民币汇率效应"等渠道,对中国区域经济发展特别是对西部大开发的影响.文章建议适时扩大人民币汇率浮动区间,加大中央政府对中西部地区在政策和资金等方面的支持力度,以及鼓励中西部内陆地区更积极主动地改善投资环境和培育优势产业,从而减少中国式"荷兰病"对中国区域经济发展的不利影响,促进我国区域经济的协调发展.     

美元短期走势分析

目前美元仍是各国外汇储备持有的主要资产,美国的货币和资本市场是世界上最具广度和深度的成熟市场之一,在未来相当长的时期里,美元资产仍将是包括中国在内的各国政府和民间对外投资的主要组成部分。美元贬值与世界经济走势并非经济基本面因素所致,美元走弱还属于货币当局“可控制的贬值”。高油价及通货膨胀的困扰,次级债危机的冲击使本来就不明朗的美国经济前景更加暗淡,无论是从美国的国内经济还是国际经济的基本面来分析,美元短期贬值已是大势所趋,无可挽回了。     

对当前我国外汇储备基金实现投资增值的思考

外汇储备必须在满足流动性和安全性前提下,拓展投资渠道,控制投资风险,提高投资收益.近几年来,我国外汇储备持续高企,而外汇储备基金投资却只有3%的营运收益率.本文分析了我国外汇储备基金投资增值的现状,从区分管理功能和投资功能,组建高效基金运营模式;设定投资基准和投资限额,控制和规避投资风险;优化外汇储备的货币结构和资产结构,拓宽投资渠道;加快培养吸纳国际金融市场操作人才,完善有关法规等几个方面提出了改进外汇储备基金投资增值的对策.     

股权分置改革对流通股股东补偿问题的研究

股权分置改革是当前我国资本市场的热点问题，实施股权分置改革试点上市公司的股权分置改革方案的出台，更引起了广泛的关注。本文运用量化分析模型对股权分置改革中有关流通股股东的补偿问题进行了研究，得出了补偿的合理性是影响流通股股东对方案认可的重要因素这一结论，并结合实施股权分置改革试点上市公司所推出的具体方案进行了验证。     

论全面深化改革背景下上海自贸区的创新发展

上海自贸区是继经济特区之后中国特色社会主义市场经济的又一探索,承载着全面社会改革的重任,分析其发展战略意义、改革创新点、发展机遇和发展原则,对确保自贸区良性发展及进一步丰富社会主义市场经济理论有重要意义。     

怎样看待当前的货币信贷形势——基于科学发展观的一个视角

针对当前我国经济领域中存在的货币信贷快速增长和固定资产投资反弹现象,本文从科学发展观视角全面剖析了当前货币信贷的运行轨迹,并就货币信贷快速增长与固定资产投资反弹可能引发的相关问题进行了思考.本文认为,当前我国货币信贷快速增长的根源在于人民币汇率的错配与国内实行的低利率甚至负利率所致,因此,当前我国的政策应当重点从加快利率市场化改革、加快汇率市场化改革、加快推进金融体制改革和加快推动金融市场建设等4个方面入手.     

管理层薪酬和持股激励效应的行业性差异分析--来自我国上市公司的实证证据

本文的研究以我国上市公司不同行业的实际数据为考察样本,运用实证分析方法验证我国上市公司不同类型行业管理层薪酬和持股与公司绩效之间的相关关系,分析结果表明:我国上市公司管理层薪酬和持股激励效应存在着较大的行业性差异,并提出不同行业企业应该根据自身特点和性质以及管理层薪酬和持股激励效应的大小,相机选择薪酬激励或股权激励,制定出详细周密、客观有效、切合实际的企业管理层激励方案,从而使其激励效应最大化。     

Time-varying relationship of news sentiment,implied volatility and stock returns

I examine the relationship between aggregate news sentiment, S&P 500 index (SPX) returns, and changes in the implied volatility index (VIX). I find a significant negative contemporaneous relationship between changes in VIX and both news sentiment and stock returns. This relationship is asymmetric whereby changes in VIX are larger following negative news and/or stock market declines. Vector autoregression (VAR) analysis of the dynamics and cross-dependencies between variables reveals a strong positive relationship between previous and current period changes in implied volatility and stock returns, while current period and lagged news sentiment has a significant positive (negative) relationship with stock returns (changes in VIX). I develop a simple trading strategy whereby high (low) levels of implied volatility signal attractive opportunities to take short (long) positions in the underlying index, while extremely negative (positive) news sentiment signals opportunities to enter short (long) index positions. The investor fear gauge (VIX) appears to perform better than news sentiment measures in forecasting future returns.     

Shadow Money in the 19th Century: Is Marx Relevant for Understanding Contemporary Shadow Money?

ABSTRACT

The growth of shadow money, since the 1980s, has implications for both central bank policy and the theorization of money. However, modern shadow money has a historical analogue in the private bill market of 19th century England This article explores the relevance of Marx’s logical and historical analysis of the evolution of the forms and functions of money in capitalist economies, and his concrete analysis of the bill market in order to understand shadow money today.