中国农业保险的赔付风险:风险测度与应对策略——基于1984~2012年农业保险与财产保险赔付率的滤波分解与比较

由于农业保险所承保的农业自然灾害具有统计学上的不可预测性,灾害学上的时空延展性和经济学上的不可控性,使得经营农业保险的保险公司面临较高赔付风险. 为测算我国农业保险的赔付风险度,收集整理1984~2012年农业保险与财产保险赔付率数据,采用H-P滤波分解法对其进行长期趋势与短期波动的分解和比较分析. 研究发现:我国农业保险整体赔付水平和赔付的波动幅度远高于财产保险,验证了农业保险具有高风险经营的特性. 但是近年来,农业保险长期赔付趋势呈现平稳略微下降态势,短期波动幅度逐步收敛. 未来随着经营主体的增加,农业保险经营中须把握保险保障度的提升与保险公司经营风险管控的有效平衡;农业保险的适当盈利性与福利改进的有效融合.     

人力资本、财务资本与资本结构——基于高新技术上市公司的经验数据

以人力资本特殊性质为切入点,对高新技术企业中人力资本、财务资本及资本结构的关系进行实证分析,研究结果表明：财务资本对人力资本的担保作用大于替代作用,人力资本的投入程度随着财务资本的增加而上升;企业负债水平的变化会影响人力资本的投入程度,企业的负债水平越高,人力资本的投入程度越低。因此,保持合适的财务资本水平可以促进人力资本的高效率投入,而协调好人力资本与资本结构关系可以提高成本效率,甚至缓解代理问题。     

出口商信用证风险影响因素分析——基于交易费用理论

本文从交易费用理论角度对信用证风险的影响因素进行了分析,认为买卖双方的信息不对称和信用证本身的制度缺陷引起的机会主义行为是引起风险的因素,提出了出口商可以通过事前防范和事后救济手段来降低交易费用.     

What induces online loyalty? Online versus offline brand images

This study investigates the effect of the interplay between a multi-channel retailer's offline and online brand images on consumers' online perceived risk and online loyalty within the framework of a theory of cognitive dissonance. A sample of 671 female college students participated in an experiment using a 2 (prior offline brand image) × 2 (online performance) between-subjects design. Results reveal that offline brand image exerts significant effects on online brand image - which, in turn, significantly explains online perceived risk - and online customer loyalty. However, online perceived risk has no significant effect on online customer loyalty after controlling for the effects of online and offline brand images. These results provide implications for the direct and indirect halo effects of offline brand image and the direct effect of online performance that may influence consumers' perceptions, expectations, and loyalty regarding multi-channel retailers.     

Linking Ethics and Risk Management in Taxation: Evidence from an Exploratory Study in Ireland and the UK

Ethical dilemmas involving tax issues were identified by members of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants as posing the most difficult ethical problem for them (Finn et al., Journal of Business Ethics 7(8), pp. 607–609, 1988). The KPMG tax shelter fraud case proves that the tax profession has not gone untainted in the age of numerous accounting and corporate scandals, such as the Enron débacle (Sikka and Hampton, Accounting Forum 29(3), 325–343, 2005). High-profile scandals serve to highlight the problems caused by differences in ethical judgement among accountants and tax practitioners and the issue of ethics has been brought publicly to the forefront of the profession. Nevertheless, the nature and dimension of ethical issues in tax practice have been largely unexplored (Erard, Journal of Public Economics 52(2), 163–197, 1993; Marshall et al., Journal of Business Ethics 17(12), 1265–1279, 1998; Frecknall Hughes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, The University of Leeds, 2002). This research aims to contribute to the debate on ethics in tax practice by reporting interview data on tax practitioners’ perceptions of ethics in the jurisdictions of Ireland and the United Kingdom and exploring the link or equation of ethics with risk management.     

RISK MEASURES FOR NON-INTEGRABLE RANDOM VARIABLES

We show that when a real-valued risk measure is defined on a solid, rearrangement invariant space of random variables, then necessarily it satisfies a weak compactness, also called continuity from below, property, and the space necessarily consists of integrable random variables. As a result we see that a risk measure defined for, say, Cauchy-distributed random variable, must take infinite values for some of the random variables.     

AN AXIOMATIZATION OF QUANTILES ON THE DOMAIN OF DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS

In an environment in which the primitive is the space of distribution functions, we characterize the quantile functions by the axioms ordinal covariance, monotonicity with respect to first-order stochastic dominance, and upper semicontinuity. We show how to characterize the VaR in a similar manner.     

CONSTANT PROPORTION PORTFOLIO INSURANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF JUMPS IN ASSET PRICES

Constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) allows an investor to limit downside risk while retaining some upside potential by maintaining an exposure to risky assets equal to a constant multiple of the cushion , the difference between the current portfolio value and the guaranteed amount. Whereas in diffusion models with continuous trading, this strategy has no downside risk, in real markets this risk is nonnegligible and grows with the multiplier value. We study the behavior of CPPI strategies in models where the price of the underlying portfolio may experience downward jumps. Our framework leads to analytically tractable expressions for the probability of hitting the floor, the expected loss, and the distribution of losses. This allows to measure the gap risk but also leads to a criterion for adjusting the multiplier based on the investor's risk aversion. Finally, we study the problem of hedging the downside risk of a CPPI strategy using options. The results are applied to a jump-diffusion model with parameters estimated from returns series of various assets and indices.     

金融危机对我国银行理财产品影响及应对之策初探

由华尔街次贷危机引发的全球金融危机正在由虚拟经济向实体经济蔓延．由发达国家向发展中国家蔓延,中国也将不可避免的受到影响和波及,银行业理财产品市场也遭受了极大的考验。文章在对金融危机对我国银行理财产品影响分析的基础上,提出了应对之策。