政府规模、政府支出增长与经济增长关系的非线性研究

本文运用面板平滑转换回归模型(PSTR),在非线性的框架下对政府规模与经济增长关系的渐进演变展开深入研究,并对可能引发两者关系结构性转变的警戒政府规模进行有效估算。研究结果表明,政府规模与经济增长之间存在着非线性关系,即随着政府规模的逐步增大,由于税负增加等因素的影响,使得政府支出增加所产生的负效应影响逐步凸显,而政府规模进一步扩大并超过警戒水平时,过度拥挤的政府支出对经济增长将由促进作用转变为阻碍作用。研究还发现,尽管我国政府支出增长与经济增长的关系参数值有所下降,但由于基础设施落后,公共物品与公共服务供给仍然相对不足,政府支出的增加仍有助于促进经济的进一步发展。     

引入风险水平的外贸上市公司财务预警研究

本文以我国股票市场上因"财务状况异常"而被特别处理的外贸上市公司为研究对象,引入风险水平指标,运用因子分析、Logistic回归分析相结合的方法构建了我国外贸上市公司财务危机发生前三年的预警模型,并检验了该模型的有效性。     

Forecasting using supervised factor models

This paper examines the theoretical and empirical properties of a supervised factor model based on combining forecasts using principal components (CFPC), in comparison with two other supervised factor models (partial least squares regression, PLS, and principal covariate regression, PCovR) and with the unsupervised principal component regression, PCR. The supervision refers to training the predictors for a variable to forecast. We compare the performance of the three supervised factor models and the unsupervised factor model in forecasting of U.S. CPI inflation. The main finding is that the predictive ability of the supervised factor models is much better than the unsupervised factor model. The computation of the factors can be doubly supervised together with variable selection, which can further improve the forecasting performance of the supervised factor models. Among the three supervised factor models, the CFPC best performs and is also most stable. While PCovR also performs well and is stable, the performance of PLS is less stable over different out-of-sample forecasting periods. The effect of supervision gets even larger as forecast horizon increases. Supervision helps to reduce the number of factors and lags needed in modelling economic structure, achieving more parsimony.     

Transition, the Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency and Entry into EU: The Case of Romania

In this paper we demonstrate that the measurement of stock market efficiency is an important activity in establishing whether eastern European countries satisfy the Copenhagen Criteria for EU membership. Specifically, we argue that developing an efficient stock market should be an important policy focus for countries with aspirations to join the EU as it helps to demonstrate the existence of a functioning market economy. We illustrate this issue by examining the evolution of stock market efficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange from mid-1997 to September 2002. We use a GARCH model on daily price data and model the disturbances using the Student-t distribution to allow for ‘fat-tails’. We find strong evidence of inefficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange in that the lagged stock price index is a significant predictor of the current price index. This result is robust to the inclusion of variables controlling for calendar effects of the sort that have been observed in more developed stock markets. The level of inefficiency appears to diminish over time and we find evidence consistent with stock market efficiency in Romania after January 2000.     

Accept–reject Metropolis–Hastings sampling and marginal likelihood estimation

We describe a method for estimating the marginal likelihood, based on Chib (1995) and C hib and Jeliazkov (2001) , when simulation from the posterior distribution of the model parameters is by the accept–reject Metropolis–Hastings (ARMH) algorithm. The method is developed for one-block and multiple-block ARMH algorithms and does not require the (typically) unknown normalizing constant of the proposal density. The problem of calculating the numerical standard error of the estimates is also considered and a procedure based on batch means is developed. Two examples, dealing with a multinomial logit model and a Gaussian regression model with non-conjugate priors, are provided to illustrate the efficiency and applicability of the method.     

中国上市公司并购绩效与思考

我国上市公司从事着大量的并购活动,通过对上市公司财务和会计数据的实证分析,可以得出这样的结论:在上市公司并购中应积极拓展有实质性的规模扩张,同时在产业转型中更应注重原有产业的技术升级和致力于营造公司主业的强势竞争力,从体制和制度上为企业发展创造良好的条件和环境。     

配合物[Co(amb)_2(phen)(H_2O)]_2·CH_3OH的合成与表征

本文主要讨论配合物[Co(mb)(2phen)(H2O)]·2CH3OH(phen是指菲罗啉)的合成和结构表征。对丙烯酰胺基苯甲酸(Hamb)为第一配体,邻菲罗啉(phen)为第二配体,通过固相法与过渡金属醋酸钴反应,合成得到一个结构新颖的配合物,[Co(amb)(2phen)(H2O)]2·CH3OH。并将合成得到的配合物与苯乙烯单体共聚,得到含配合物结构单元的聚合物,为开发配合物-聚合物杂化新材料打下一定的理论基础。     

高速铣削碳纤维复合材料铣削温度实验分析

采用多因素正交实验法,在高速加工中心上,进行了高速铣削碳纤维复合材料的实验。基于概率统计和回归分析原理,对回归方程进行了显著性检验,并建立了碳纤维复合材料的切削温度经验模型。通过分析正交实验直观图,研究了切削参数对切削温度的影响。     

军校办学转型的内驱力——教员转型的对策分析

办学转型是目前大多数军队院校发展的新选择,而办学转型的内驱力是教员转型。需要从提高认识、与部队"亲密接触"、完善评价机制三个方面来实现教员的转型,进而驱动办学转型。     

“营改增”对物流企业的影响及应对策略

分析了“营改增”对物流企业的影响,包括对企业税负、企业管理与创新、企业行为、企业财务、宏观环境以及融资等方面的影响。研究发现,整体来说,“营改增”有利于生产率高的物流企业而不利于生产率低的物流企业,适合创新能力高、管理能力强的物流企业,而对效率低下、管理水平不高的物流企业并没有突出的优势。并提出了物流企业实行“营改增”的应对策略。