基于不同时期典型案例比较分析的货物贸易外汇业务违规趋势及建议

在不同外汇管理时期，货物贸易违规业务呈现多样化的特点。本文通过对四个外汇管理时期的典型案例比较，总结出贸易项下违规业务的动机、专业化水平和规避监管手段的变化趋势，揭示当前形势下货物贸易外汇监管难点，并提出针对性建议。     

Does it help firms to secretly pay for stock promoters?

We examine deals between listed firms and promoters who have been secretly hired to increase their stock prices. This behavior by the secret promoter is illegal (and leads to prosecution) but the actions of the hiring firm are legal. We use data from these prosecutions to analyze the behavior and motivations of the hiring firms. We find that secret promotion leads to an initial increase in the price and trading volume of the firms on the date that the secret promotion started. Subsequently, however, we find that this increase in price is reversed when regulators (e.g. SEC or NASD) take action against these promoters for not disclosing their relationships with the hiring firms. We find that the main motives behind these relationships are to maximize the private benefits of the firm’s managers and owners through pumping the share prices and subsequently dumping their shareholdings.     

Regulatory performance of audit tournaments and compliance observability

This paper examines the effectiveness of traditional regulatory schemes and newly emerging social information schemes for achieving compliance. Our experiment focuses on two stochastic audit schemes for enforcing regulatory compliance. In the Random Audit mechanism firms are randomly chosen for inspection. In the Tournament Audit mechanism the probability of inspection increases with the degree of estimated underreporting. To study the effects of social information, the experiment varies the observability of identity, output, and compliance decisions. Optimal output is theoretically independent of the auditing scheme, but equilibrium reporting is higher under the Tournament mechanism than Random auditing. Experimental findings are broadly consistent with the theoretical predictions for reporting, but deviate modestly for output. In particular, we find that average output is lower and reporting is higher in the Tournament treatment compared to the Random Audit treatment. At the individual level, a majority of participants misreported in most periods. Social observability does not affect output or reporting significantly in either of the audit treatments.     

An economic evaluation of market development programmes for US dairy products

‘This study measured the effectiveness of US dairy export promotion programmes on increasing foreign demand and enhancing producers’ revenues. An import demand equation based on panel data was used to test whether export promotion has a positive and significant impact on US dairy exports. The effects of various promotion scenarios on the dairy market were then simulated, and benefit–cost ratios (BCRs) for these programmes were estimated. There were three key findings. First, the combined effort of public and private dairy export promotion expenditures had a positive and statistically significant impact on demand for US dairy products in the world market. The findings indicated that export promotion stimulated total dairy exports by 4.14 billion pounds, on average, per year, which represented 55.8% of total exports. Second, US dairy export promotion has been highly profitable for the nation’s dairy farmers. The calculated BCRs, based on assumed elasticity of supply, ranged from a low of 8.54 for the most elastic assumption to a high of 30.12. Third, from an optimality standpoint, dairy farmers are underinvesting in export promotion. The marginal BCRs ranged from a low of 3.79 to a high of 15.22, which means that, at the margin, increasing export promotion expenditures would be profitable for dairy farmers.     

On the Differential Effects of European Patents

Since the invention of the European Patent System, national patent systems have continued to co-exist, although they did lose appeal. How have the different national systems been affected in view of their characteristics? In order to answer this question a constant-market-share (CMS) analysis is carried out. While on a theoretical level, the different elements adding to the appeal of each patent system are discussed, the CMS-analysis reveals the importance of country size in that the national systems of smaller countries lose.     

消费者视角下江苏医药企业履行社会责任满意度研究

从消费者视角出发,通过对江苏12家公立医院的300名消费者的实地调研,对江苏医药企业消费者社会责任履行的满意度的调研结果进行因子分析,并根据分析结论提出针对性的建议,以促进江苏医药企业更好的履行社会责任。     

Revisiting the labor supply effect of social security earnings test: New evidence from its elimination and reinstatement in Japan

We explore the labor supply effect of the social security earnings test in Japan on those aged 65–69 years through a combined examination of the elimination of the earnings test in 1985 and its reinstatement in 2002. We present evidence showing that the effects of changes in the earnings tests on the labor supply of the elderly are not symmetric, controlling for changes in the attributes of workers and firms. The repeal of the earnings test in 1985 did affect the earnings distribution of the elderly (especially for male), while its reinstatement in 2002 did not alter the earnings distribution.     

绥芬河市新华街隧道围岩稳定分析

绥芬河市新华街隧道是目前黑龙江省最长的公路隧道,该隧道东起新华街,西至301国道,其最大埋深为101.1m,由于隧道穿越区域地质条件复杂,地应力较高,因此在前期施工过程中,已经出现了局部掉块现象。为了避免隧道在施工与运营期内出现大面积垮塌情况,本文对隧道的稳定性进行了分析评价,该隧道出现岩爆的可能极小,但是洞室围岩有塑性破坏的可能,为了防止由于塑性破坏诱发的塌落现象,建议采用4~5m的系统锚杆进行支护。     

A neuro-fuzzy combination model based on singular spectrum analysis for air transport demand forecasting

Air transport demand forecasting is receiving increasing attention, especially because of intrinsic difficulties and practical applications. Total passengers are used as a proxy for air transport demand. However, the air passenger time series usually has a complex behavior due to their irregularity, high volatility and seasonality. This paper proposes a new hybrid approach, combining singular spectrum analysis (SSA), adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO), for short-term air passenger traffic prediction. The SSA is used for identifying and extracting the trend and seasonality of air transport demand and the artificial intelligence technologies, including ANFIS and IPSO, are utilized to deal with the irregularity and volatility of the demand. The HK air passenger data are collected to establish and validate the forecasting model. Empirical results clearly points to the enormous potential that the proposed approach possesses in air transport demand forecasting and can be considered as a viable alternative.     

我国财政专项转移支付决策过程分析--以多源流分析为视角

财政转移支付是1994年实行分税制以来平衡中央-地方以及区域间财力不均的制度，我国专项转移支付又始终占据着财政转移支付的重大比重。专项转移支付在确定资金转移地区，资金转移项目以及每个专项拨款多少的标准是如何确定的？这些都取决于专项转移支付的决策过程。文章通过多源流分析视角来探析我国财政专项转移支付的决策过程中存在的问题，了解我国财政专项转移支付的决策过程。