Populists versus theorists: Futures markets and the volatility of prices

In this paper, the divergence between popular and professional opinion on speculation in general and futures markets in particular is explored. Along the way, a synopsis of prevailing popular attitudes on futures markets is presented, and an outline of a formal model of futures markets and its implications for commodity price volatility are sketched. The heart of the analysis is drawn from the historical record on the establishment and prohibition of futures markets. Briefly, the results presented in this paper strongly suggest that futures markets were associated with—and most likely caused—lower commodity price volatility. The paper concludes with a discussion of potential sources of popular antagonism against futures markets.     

Coordination of speculation

We extend the models of Krugman [Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 11 (1979) 311] and Flood and Garber [Journal of International Economics, 17 (1984) 1] on balance of payments crises to a multi-country setting such that coordination among speculators is important for a focal point to emerge. The moment of successful coordination when the currency is devalued is shown to depend on initial beliefs, the degree of imperfect communication, the rate of domestic credit creation, and the number of countries that have overvalued currencies. Contagion arises naturally in our framework. Subsequent speculative attacks occur faster and faster and communication among speculators results in fluctuating stocks of reserves prior to the attack.     

APPROACHES TO PRICE FORMATION IN FINANCIALIZED COMMODITY MARKETS

A recent debate about the financialization of commodity markets has stimulated the development of new approaches to price formation which incorporate index traders as a new trader category. I survey these new approaches by retracing their emergence to traditional price formation models and show that they arise from a synthesis between commodity arbitrage pricing and behavioural pricing theories in the tradition of Keynesian inspired hedging pressure models. Based on these insights, I derive testable hypotheses and provide guidance for a growing literature that seeks to empirically evaluate the effects of index traders on price discovery in commodity futures markets.     

Why do firms engage in selective hedging? Evidence from the gold mining industry

The widespread practice of managers speculating by incorporating their market views into firms’ hedging programs (“selective hedging”) remains a puzzle. Using a 10-year sample of North American gold mining firms, we find no evidence that selective hedging is more prevalent among firms that are believed to possess an information advantage. In contrast, we find strong evidence that selective hedging is more prevalent among financially constrained firms, suggesting that this practice is driven by asset substitution motives. We detect weak relationships between selective hedging and some corporate governance measures but find no evidence of a link between selective hedging and managerial compensation.     

“热钱”流入中国的套利机制及其防范

目前在人民币升值预期较强的条件下,投机资本早已把目光投向中国市场,大量的投机资本流入中国,加剧了通货膨胀的压力,影响中国金融的稳定。本文主要分析了投机资本流入的原因、套利机制原理、热钱流入的影响,并重点考察了通过外汇贷款套利和通过港币套利的机制。最后本文提出了投机资本管理和防范的政策建议。     

Demand effects and speculation in oil markets: Theory and evidence

We present evidence showing the existence of stable cointegrating vectors connecting four important variables in the U.S. and global oil markets: oil production, stocks of crude oil, the real price of oil, and broad measures of income. Our data are monthly, and go back to the 1930s, split into sub-samples which correspond to periods before and after the 1973 crisis. We further show that the cointegrating vectors found in the data accord well with an extended commodity storage model which allows for demand growth dynamics and for supply regimes. Specifically, inventories and price move in opposite directions when supply is flexible, but the relationship reverses so that they comove when supply is inflexible.     

Synthetic Trades and Calendar Day Patterns The Case of the Dollar/Sterling Markets

Significant day of the week patterns are shown to exist in the dollar/sterling market. These patterns are associated with the returns to synthetic and actual forward trades as well as to spot trades. These trading strategies, geared to buying or selling sterling, reflect different timing, if not valuation, considerations on the part of traders. Nevertheless, pronounced calendar patterns are observed on Wednesdays for all the trading strategies evaluated. This is attributable to significantly different risks on Wednesdays. The observed end‐of‐the‐week patterns in forward returns persist and reinforce the returns at the start of the next week of trading. Furthermore, the overall returns to forward speculation on Fridays and Mondays are of opposite sign. Our results on calendar day patterns are thus supported by both parametric and non‐parametric tests. We provide evidence that the frequency of synthetic trading opportunities is inversely related to maturity. We also find that the period of market turbulence analyzed did not trigger abnormal opportunities for covered interest arbitrage.     

美国金融体系、大萧条和投机蔓延

相比于非主流的经济学家,2008年以来的美国经济大萧条对主流经济学家来说是一个巨大的震动,原因在于二者对于虚拟经济与实体经济间的互动关系一直存在争议。虽然政策的制定者依然依据的是主流经济理论,监管和透明度提升可以弥补市场失灵,但是有不少人对于监管在防范类似危机中的作用持怀疑态度。深层次的经济转型和对投机的限制对于经济的长期稳定来说是必要的。我们已经找到了一种衡量投机活动与生产活动的方法,被称之为"投机蔓延"模型,它提供了一个理解经济过度金融化的新视角。     

Hedging, hedge accounting, and speculation in a rational expectations equilibrium

This paper explains corporate hedging and speculation in a two period rational expectations model. A risk averse manager represents a firm that is priced in a risk neutral market. The manager enters into a cash flow hedge of a forecast transaction by taking a short position in the futures market. When the futures position is chosen, the manager possesses private information regarding the firm’s production capacity. Mandatory disclosure of the futures position in the financial statements allows the market to draw inferences over the manager’s information. These inferences affect the market’s pricing decision and in turn the manager’s hedging decision. The futures position taken is chosen not only to reduce price risk exposure but to signal some capacity level. In equilibrium, however, the market anticipates the manager’s strategy and is not fooled.Considering varying managerial preferences, we analyze three settings. In the basic setting speculation occurs whenever the manager prefers high market values in both periods. In the second setting we add transaction costs and find that speculation is less likely. Finally, we introduce uncertainty regarding the manager’s preferences. If the market needs to determine prices based on expected preferences, incentives to speculate are mitigated in equilibrium but still present.     

How financial investment distorts food prices: evidence from U.S. grain markets

Convergence between commodity futures prices and the underlying physical assets at each contract's expiration date is a pivotal condition for the market's functioning. Between 2005 and 2010, convergence failed for several U.S. grain markets. This article presents a price pressure‐augmented commodity storage model that links the scale of nonconvergence to financial investment channeled through indices, which are traded in commodity futures markets. The model is empirically tested, using Markov regime‐switching regression analysis. Regression results strongly support the model's predicted link between index investment and the extent of nonconvergence for three grains traded at the Chicago Board of Trade: wheat, corn, and soybeans.