高投资、宏观成本与经济增长的持续性

过去20多年,中国高投资—高增长的发展模式以宏观成本积累为代价。增长是中国今后相当长时期的主题,但是以高成本为代价的高投资—高增长发展模式的持续性如何?本文从理论上说明了中国高投资的政府激励机制及宏观成本边界和高成本增长的临界点;进而指出,在开放经济中,资本流动、外部需求和供给冲击构成高成本投资模式的现实约束,政府必须权衡粗放式高增长的宏观收益和成本,制定相应的政策来约束低效率的投资行为,实现全社会的福利优化。     

基于生态位理论城市商业银行的发展策略

生态位是生态学中的一个重要概念,本文从生态位基本理论出发,分析了基于生态位理论城市商业银行发展的自然特性、层次性、社会性和时空性,提出了生态位理论下的城市商业银行要明确市场定位,突出特色立行的发展策略。     

国内外水资源承载力的研究综述

随着能源危机的出现,资源环境问题逐渐成为各国经济学家和环境学家特别关注的问题.近年来,水资源短缺越来越成为各地经济发展的制约因素,面对这种情况,资源承载力概念的提出为资源与经济发展问题提供了一条新的研究途径.本文将国内外有关水资源承载力概念和量化方法的研究作一总体分析,结果表明:(1)国外对水资源承载力的研究较少,国内的研究大体可分为初始、发展、鼎盛和拓展四个阶段;(2)从横向比较来看,水资源承载力的研究在我国以近十年为盛.但研究多集中在资源学科领域和地理环境学科领域,角度大多是综合考虑多方面的影响因素,对一个地区的水资源承载力作出系统评价,并借助可持续发展的思想,应用已有的和创新的方法来解决水资源承载力的问题;(3)水资源承载力的研究在一定程度上是土地资源承载力研究的进步;(4)水资源承载力的研究较少考虑环境污染对水资源承载力以及整个社会系统的影响.在此基础上,本文最后对承载力在自然资源方面的研究作了小结和展望.     

Does too much government spending depress the economic development of transition economies? Evidences from dynamic panel threshold analysis

This paper investigates the relationship between government size and economic growth and determines the optimal level of government spending to maximize economic growth. The paper applies a dynamic panel data analysis based upon a threshold model to test the threshold effect of government spending in 26 transition economies over the period spanning 1993–2016. According to the analysis results, government expenditures have a threshold effect on economic growth, and there is a non-linear relationship depicted as an Armey curve in these transition economies. The findings indicate that a government size above the threshold government spending level adversely affects economic growth, while a government size below the threshold level has a positive effect. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant relationship between the two variables above and below that optimal level, even if we divide the sample into developed and developing countries. Our findings suggest that governments in transition economies should consider optimal government size at around the estimated threshold level to support sustainable economic growth.     

The Change of Ecological Footprint and Its Effect on Sustainable Development in Beijing of China

Speeding up the environmental protection and construction is one of the major issues in ＂Greener Olympic Games＂ held in Beijing in 2008. Making a thorough study to find out the reliable measures to ecological resumption in Beijing has an important scientific and practical significance. It can provide scientific basis for making a better decision for ＂Greener Olympic Games＂ held in capital Beijing and development in harmony for society and economy, as well as management for ecological environment. By studying of change of ecological footprint from 1990 to 2003 in Beijing, the paper shows that ecological footprint per capita has a strong relativity with population and GDP, and both of the correlation coefficient between them is about 0.92, as well as the fossil energy land has a position in the lead in ecological footprint items. The study also shows that the ecological capacity per capita in Beijing occupied about 1.25% in global ecological capacity per capita. Began 1990, the ecological deficit in Beijing was about 0.72 hm2, which is at strong unsustainable development at present. Finally, the paper suggests social and economic structure should be adjusted as soon as possible, resources should be strengthen sustainable used and population increasing should be controlled strictly, as well as arable land also should be under control used for built-up areas. Simultaneity, the utilizing ratio of energy sources should be increased, and the consumption of energy sources and ecological deficit in Beijing should be reduced in order to speed up the society and economy development in harmony and sustainment.     

激励扭曲与努力的无效分配——基于银行客户经理制模拟利润考核的有效性分析

文章首先通过运用多任务委托代理模型分析商业银行模拟利润考核制度的激励效应和扭曲效应,以及可能导致客户经理努力的无效分配;然后扩展分析银行模拟利润考核的有效性和模拟利润成本之间的权衡以及模拟利润的最优精确水平;最后结合我国商业银行的现实状况引申出与商业银行客户经理模拟利润考核制度相关的结论与政策建议。     

上海市生态可持续发展评价研究

本文利用生态足迹法对上海市1985～2004年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行了研究，结果表明上海市入均生态足迹和生态承载力分别由1985年的1．9340hm^2、0．1582hm^2逐年增加至2004年的3．0459hm^2、0．5805hm^2，一而同期的入均生态赤字也由1．7958hm^2上升到2．6656hm^2。同时计算了万元GDP生态足迹，并预测了2010年的入均生态足迹和生态承载力。最后得出，上海市入口对自然资源的利用逐年增加，目前已超出了自然生态系统的生态承载力范围，现有的发展模式是不可持续的。     

Bank loan versus financial lease: how do traditional and innovative approaches within the banking sector influence economic growth? A comparative analysis between the US and China

ABSTRACT

The argument over the effects of financial structures on economic growth remains unsettled. This study, therefore, compares the dynamic correlation and lead–lag relationship between the different financial approaches within the banking sector (that is, traditional bank loans versus innovative financial leasing) and economic growth. We employ a continuous wavelet analysis using time-series data from 1982–2017 from the US (the world’s largest developed country) and China (the world’s largest developing country). The empirical results show that (1) episodes of significant correlation usually emerge during periods of reform, crisis or policy implementation; and (2) in China, traditional banking promotes economic growth in the long term, while the real economy only imputes the evolution of banks during critical economic reforms in the short term. Meanwhile, financial leasing could only promote the development of the real economy under suitable regulation; and (3) in the US, before the crises, the irrational growth of the real economy could increase bank assets, while during the crises, the traditional banking approach harms economic growth, and after the crises, financial leases play an important role in recovery. Therefore, we suggest that policymakers should establish adequate policies and regulations to solve the situation.     

Government Consumption and Industrial Productivity: Scale and Compositional Effects

Within a production function framework in which government spending produces public goods which enter firms production functions, empirical tests using time series data spanning eleven countries and thirty industries find both the scale and the composition of government consumption spending to affect the level and the rate of growth of total factor productivity at the industry level.Jel Classification: H50, D24     

金融系统视角下我国商业银行金融控股集团化

本文比较了银行主导型和市场主导型两种金融系统,阐述了两者趋同的国际趋势及金融系统中间模式的思潮,在此基础上提出金融系统视角下我国商业银行金融控股集团化的深远影响和战略意义.