The Effects of Oil Price on the Korean Economy: A Global VAR Approach

This article empirically explores the effects of oil price on the Korean economy using a Global VAR model. First, we evaluate the average connectedness of oil price with the Korean domestic variables over the precrisis period. We then investigate the time-varying contribution of oil price to the Korean financial and real sectors during and after the global financial crisis through recursive estimation. It is found that the contribution of oil price becomes very large in the case of real exports, equity prices, and real output, but plays a much less prevalent role in the remaining cases. In the meantime, the time-varying contribution of oil price to the Korean economy has not changed during and after the global financial crisis. Interestingly, we find that the Korean economy is affected mostly by overseas financial conditions in the short-term but it becomes more susceptible to oil price fluctuations in the long run, suggesting that Korea’s reliance on energy imports leaves the economy exposed to volatility in energy prices.     

全站仪的误差分析及精度控制在水利工程测量中的研究

水利工程是国民经济建设过程中非常重要的建设内容,能够为人们的生产生活提供极大的便利,这就需要保证水利工程测量工作的准确性。在水利工程测量过程中,常用的测量工具就是全站仪,做好其误差分析与精度控制工作是非常必要的,本文就主要针对此予以简单分析。     

Modeling asymmetric price transmission in the European food market

In this study, we employ a multivariate panel error correction model (PVECM) to investigate asymmetric price transmission among the farm, processor, and retail segments of the European food supply chain for the 2005–2016 period. The results indicate that, in both the long- and short-run, retail prices respond more strongly to processor price increases than decreases and the same occurs for processor prices due to farm price changes. Thus, the findings demonstrate the presence of positive asymmetric price transmission in the European food supply chain. Finally, the results of the present study indicate that the food price pass-through varies greatly across product category and across countries, and that the pass-through to producer prices is greater than that to consumer prices.     

双选信道下一种基于混沌交织的FBMC系统

高速移动环境下，无线信道具有时频双选性衰落的特性，使得滤波器组多载波(Filter Bank Multi-carrier，FBMC)系统产生长突发差错。将一种基于Baker映射的混沌交织算法应用在滤波器组多载波系统中，根据混沌密钥对发送数据进行分块和重新排列，按照Baker映射规则完成数据交织。此方法可以将长突发差错变为单突发差错，结合卷积编码能有效地纠正双选信道产生的长突发差错。仿真结果表明，在双选择信道中，基于混沌交织的滤波器组多载波系统误比特率性能优于传统基于块交织的滤波器组多载波系统。     

输送机中心轴线标定及测量精度分析

通过对带式输送机安装中心轴线标定方法进行理论分析,推导出边长和角度实测的精度相关公式,同时输送机的施工安装工艺对测量标定中心轴线提出了较高的要求,为我们提出了在实际工作中的具体做法和应注意的几个问题。     

天然气输送支干线生产管理探讨

天然气输送管线安全运行面临风险,本文主要对天然气输送管线生产管理进行探讨。     

Are betting returns a useful measure of accuracy in (sports) forecasting?

In an economic context, forecasting models are judged in terms not only of accuracy, but also of profitability. The present paper analyses the counterintuitive relationship between accuracy and profitability in probabilistic (sports) forecasts in relation to betting markets. By making use of theoretical considerations, a simulation model, and real-world datasets from three different sports, we demonstrate the possibility of systematically or randomly generating positive betting returns in the absence of a superior model accuracy. The results have methodological implications for sports forecasting and other domains related to betting markets. Betting returns should not be treated as a valid measure of model accuracy, even though they can be regarded as an adequate measure of profitability. Hence, an improved predictive performance might be achieved by carefully considering the roles of both accuracy and profitability when designing models, or, more specifically, when assessing the in-sample fit of data and evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performances.     

国际资金循环测度的统计方法及应用

研究目标：本文研究如何测量国际资金循环（Global Flow of Funds，GFF），试图整合国际金融相关数据源，创建GFF统计矩阵。研究方法：讨论了GFF的基本概念，确定了国际资金循环的统计范围。按照2008SNA所提倡的From Whom to Whom 的统计基准，建立了GFF的统计框架，据此框架整合了国际金融组织之间的数据系统关系和现有的国际金融统计数据源。研究发现：利用相关统计创建了GFF矩阵模型表，试编了一个包含中国在内的由11个国家所构成的“国家×国家”的GFF统计矩阵表。研究创新：创建了GFF矩阵表，展开了以中国为主要观测对象的国际跨境资本比较分析。研究价值：建立了观测GFF统计，开辟了新的分析视野，客观揭示了中国在GFF中的状况及现存的主要问题。     

A number‐of‐modes reference rule for density estimation under multimodality

We consider kernel density estimation for univariate distributions. The question of interest is as follows: given that the data analyst has some background knowledge on the modality of the data (for instance, ‘data of this type are usually bimodal’), what is the adequate bandwidth to choose? We answer this question by extending Silverman's idea of ‘normal‐reference’ to that of ‘reference to a Gaussian mixture’. The concept is illustrated in the light of real data examples.     

TEM4之作文错误分析及其对教学的反拨作用

学生写作中经常出现词汇、语法、措辞等方面的错误,教师在教学中应分析其错误形成的原因,正确对待其错误,努力改进教学方法和评价手段,鼓励学生自主学习,以提高学生文化修养和作文质量。