生态工业园企业合作非正式契约的博弈分析

企业间稳定的合作关系是生态工业园顺利成长的前提条件．要保证这种合作关系就必须有强有力的制度保障。新制度经济学理论提出将长期契约用来代替纵向一体化经营,同时将长期契约分为正式契约和非正式契约。由于正式契约的非完备性和未来的不确定性,提高了它的实施成本,因此,非正式契约在规范园区企业行为方面提供了强有力的保证。本文对防止园区企业机会主义行为的非正式契约进行了博弈分析．着重用不完全信息下的动态博弈理论阐释非正式契约运行的内在机理,并对如何规范园区企业间合作关系提出了建议与对策,以期有助于生态工业园的健康成长。     

“十一五”我国建筑业发展预测模型建立和应用

基于灰色理论建立建筑业的GM(1,1)发展预测模型,对我国建筑业的发展进行预测,并运用多元回归预测模型进行验证比较,两种不同的预测方法得出的结论是一致的,“十一五”期间我国建筑业将继续保持较快增长。     

湖北省碳排放与经济增长脱钩分析

以2000-2014年湖北省GDP、能源消费和碳排放为基础数据,从能源结构、能源消耗强度和碳排放强度方面分析在此期间湖北省能源利用现状以及变化趋势,并且利用Tapio脱钩模型,分析湖北省2001 -2014年间经济增长与碳排放之间脱钩关系,将能源消费作为中间变量说明脱钩状态变化的原因。结果表明湖北省在此期间经济增长与碳排放绝大多数处于弱脱钩状态,并有向强脱钩转变的趋势,并且分析原因主要是经其二者与能源消费结构的改善和能源能利用率的提高有密切关系。最后就区域层面、企业层面以及个人层面提出相关建议。     

中国经济转型中的资本市场机遇——基于“四维理论”的分析

考察美国、日本等国历史经验,结合对中国资本市场的研究和实践,本文提出用四维理论——即宏观大背景决定方向,产业小背景精确定位股票,技术分析决定交易时机,心理博弈决定投资成败为纬度的四维理论来分析资本市场。从宏观、产业、技术及心理角度综合分析,当前资本市场估值处于合理区域,未来存在较大潜力。     

Coordination in retailer-carrier channels for long term planning

We study a retailer-carrier channel for the purpose of long term planning and coordination. Here, the term channel represents the business interaction between the retailer and the carrier. The retailer sells a particular item with price-dependent demand, whereas the carrier is responsible for transporting the item to the retailer's site. We characterize the profit functions of each channel member as well as the total channel profit. We consider two specific channel structures: (i) the centralized channel and (ii) the decentralized channel. Under the first channel structure, the goal is to set the retail price so as to maximize the total channel profit. Under the latter, the carrier and the retailer choose their own policy parameters, i.e., the freight rate for the carrier and the retail price for the retailer, so as to maximize their individual profits. We model the decentralized channel as a Stackelberg Game and propose a coordination mechanism between the retailer and the carrier in which the retailer signals a price multiplier to the carrier. We illustrate that this mechanism could provide win-win solutions for both parties and present analytical and numerical results on the efficiency of channel coordination. We demonstrate that coordination in retailer-carrier channels can be as promising as supplier-retailer channels. We also discuss the effects of retailer-carrier coordination on inventory levels.     

Adverse Selection,Investor Experience and Security Choice in Venture Capital Finance: Evidence from Germany

This article analyses 336 German venture capital transactions from 1990 to 2005 and seeks to determine why selected financial securities differ across deals. We find that a broad array of financial instruments is used, covering straight equity, mezzanine and debt‐like securities. Based on the chosen financial securities’ upside potential and downside protection characteristics, we provide an explanation for the differing use of these securities. Our results show that investors’ deal experience, adverse selection risks and economic prospects in the public equity market influence the selection of financial securities.     

论文化身份对儿童文学译介的影响

本文运用多元系统理论中有关理论对文化身份对童文学译介的影响进行了探讨。文化身份制约了儿童文学翻译,影响译者对翻译作品的选择及翻译策略的选择。然而,文化身份的制约不是决定性的,译者的主观文化态度、不同文化间的相互需求也会影响儿童文学翻译。     

Supporting ALARP decision making by cost benefit analysis and multiattribute utility theory

Current guidance in the UK and elsewhere indicate upper and target risk limits for the operation of nuclear plant in terms of individual risk per annum. ‘As low as reasonably practicable’ (ALARP) arguments are used to justify the acceptance or rejection of policies that lead to risk changes between these limits. The suitability of cost‐benefit analysis (CBA) and multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) are assessed for performing ALARP (‘as low as reasonably possible’) assessments, in particular within the nuclear industry. Four problems stand out in current CBA applications to ALARP, concerning the determination of prices of safety gains or detriments, the valuation of group and individual risk, calculations using ‘disproportionality’, and the use of discounting to trade‐off risks through time. This last point has received less attention in the past but is important because of the growing interest in risk‐informed regulation in which policies extend over several timeframes and distribute the risk unevenly over these, or in policies that lead to a nonuniform risk within a single timeframe (such as maintenance policies). The problems associated with giving quantitative support to such decisions are discussed. It is argued that multiattribute utility methods (MAUT) provide an alternative methodology to CBA which enable the four problems described above to be addressed in a more satisfactory way. Through sensitivity analysis MAUT can address the perceptions of all stakeholder groups, facilitating constructive discussion and elucidating the key points of disagreement. It is also argued that by being explicitly subjective it provides an open, auditable and clear analysis in contrast to the illusory objectivity of CBA. CBA seeks to justify a decision by using a common basis for weights (prices), while MAUT recognizes that different parties may want to give different valuations. It then allows the analyst to explore the ways in which different parties might (or might not) come to the same conclusion even when weighting items differently.     

“论文研习”实践教学模式初探

以＂论文研习＂的途径开展实践教学,不仅能藉由学生论文之选题,把握专业的发展走势,而且在老师的指导下,围绕专业论文所进行的选题、加工、研习、讲授、反思等环节,提高学生提出问题并运用所学知识分析、解决问题的能力。论文研习会上,通过学生与老师的角色互换,也使学生在表达思想、随机应变等方面得到了锻炼。     

How to Arouse the Poor Students＇ Interest in English Learning

As we all know, English plays an important role in the morden society. In the future, a person who knows nothing about English will be a new ＂blindman＂ o However, English learning is a complex process. Some poor students we often called can＇ t speak a little standard English. They always also make lots of mistakes in both homework and written English. This paper finds out that one of the most important factors influcening poor students is their low interest in English learning after an investigation in junior school. Then, this paper focuses on the importance of English learning interest, and analyzes the causes of the poor students＇ low interest in English learning. Lastly. the author suggests some ways of arousing poor English learners＇ interest in the teaching process, and believe that the poor students must be changed into good students as long as the English teachers arouse their interest in English learning.