试论我国地方政府债务及其风险控制

地方政府债务是指地方政府承担的,所有需要其在将来运用资产或其它经济资源偿还的义务。它具有以下几个特点:首先,地方政府债务是一种综合性的债务。它可能由多种因素诱发产生,或由其它形式的债务(例如金融债务)转化而来。其次,地方政府债务具有较大的隐蔽性。某些形式的地方政府债务并不直接表现在政府资产负债表上,可能直到需要偿还时才会最终暴露出来。第三,作为最终需要地方财政偿还的债务,地方政府债务一般由地方财政实施控制。     

地方财政体制权责不对称问题研究

地方财政体制权责不对称已经成为分税制后我国地方财政管理体制运行中的一个较为突出的问题。主要表现为：事权划分原则性不强且缺乏法制化基础导致了政府间事权下移，地方政府级次过多与“倒轧账”式的分税模式引起了地方政府间财权上移，转移支付制度不规范造成了地方政府间财力差距日益扩大。为此，我们应选择相应的治理对策来完善我国地方财政体制。     

泰国城市化过程及其启示

20世纪60年代以来,泰国经济迅速发展,但城市化的进程却相对滞后.由于历史、政策以及政治体制等多方面原因,泰国在城市化过程中出现了城乡发展不协调、城市规模等级体系畸形化、贫民窟等严重的城市问题.泰国城市化过程的经验和教训对如何实现城乡协调和可持续发展具有重要的借鉴意义.对于发展中国家城市化而言,政府更应该重视优化城市层级,赋予城市一定的自治权,尊重农民的地方性知识并努力缩小城乡教育水平的差距.     

Modelling the dynamics of Bitcoin and Litecoin: GARCH versus stochastic volatility models

We examine and compare a large number of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) and stochastic volatility (SV) models using series of Bitcoin and Litecoin price returns to assess the model fit for dynamics of these cryptocurrency price returns series. The various models examined include the standard GARCH(1,1) and SV with an AR(1) log-volatility process, as well as more flexible models with jumps, volatility in mean, leverage effects, t-distributed and moving average innovations. We report that the best model for Bitcoin is SV-t while it is GARCH-t for Litecoin. Overall, the t-class of models performs better than other classes for both cryptocurrencies. For Bitcoin, the SV models consistently outperform the GARCH models and the same holds true for Litecoin in most cases. Finally, the comparison of GARCH models with GARCH-GJR models reveals that the leverage effect is not significant for cryptocurrencies, suggesting that these do not behave like stock prices.     

Nonparametric estimation of stochastic volatility models

This letter introduces nonparametric estimators of the drift and diffusion coefficient of stochastic volatility models which exploit techniques for estimating integrated volatility with high-frequency data. The performance of the proposed estimators is assessed on simulations of two popular stochastic volatility models.     

关于完善地方税体系的探讨

地方税体系是分税制财政管理体制的重要组成部分，是我国目前在理论和实践中尚未解决好的问题，提出了完善地方税体系应坚持的原则，在原则指导下，借鉴国外的经验，合理划分中央和地方税收管理权限，科学界定税种归属；优化地方税制结构，完善地方税体系。     

论我国现行缺陷产品召回制度

我国有关缺陷产品召回制度的法律规范或者原则性较强缺乏可操作性、或者位阶较低不具有广泛性、或者针对特定产品适用面较窄。所以,我们应借鉴发达国家的先进经验制定有关缺陷产品召回制度的基本法律和针对特定行业的特别法律,同时建立明确的缺陷产品召回管理体系,以形成保护消费者、维护市场安全与稳定的健全的法律制度和运行机制。     

省级以下土地垂直管理及实施难度研究

阐述土地管理机构垂直管理是满足现阶段市场经济要求的有效管理体制，符合当前行政管理体制改革中垂直管理渐强的趋势。实行机构垂直领导体制是统一当前国土资源管理的基本要求，是当前市场经济阶段处理中央与地方关系，加强中央宏观调控能力和防范经济风险的必然选择。新形势下的垂直管理在实施之初转变领导意识，正确处理国土资源管理部门与地方政府的关系，重视自身的权力监督与约束制度建设。     

Valuation of commodity derivatives in a new multi-factor model

This paper extends existing commodity valuation models to allow for stochastic volatility and simultaneous jumps in the spot price and spot volatility. Closed-form valuation formulas for forwards, futures, futures options, geometric Asian options and commodity-linked bonds are obtained using the Heston (1993) and Bakshi and Madan (2000) methodology. Stochastic volatility and jumps do not affect the futures price at a given point in time. However, numerical examples indicate that they play important roles in pricing options on futures. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Implied Volatility of Interest Rate Options: An Empirical Investigation of the Market Model

We analyze the empirical properties of the volatilityimplied in options on the 13-week US Treasury bill rate. These options havenot been studied previously. It is shown that a European style put optionon the interest rate is equivalent to a call option on a zero-coupon bond.We apply the LIBOR market model and conduct a battery of validity tests tocompare three different volatility specifications: contact, affine, and exponentialvolatility. It appears that the additional parameter in the affine and theexponential volatility function is not justified. Overall, the LIBOR marketmodel fares well in describing these options.