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11.
Loïc Cadiou Stphane Des Jean-Pierre Laffargue 《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》2003,27(11-12):1961
This paper presents a vintage capital model assuming putty–clay investment and perfect foresight. The model is written in discrete time and is simulated by using a second order relaxation algorithm. By computing the eigenvalues of the dynamic system, we have checked the conditions of existence and uniqueness of a solution (Blanchard and Kahn's conditions) and identified the echo effect that characterizes vintage capital models and the related dynamics of creation and destruction. By calibrating the model on French data, it has been proved useful to explain the medium-term movements in the distribution of income in France during the last three decades. 相似文献
12.
This article proposes a new approach to testing for the hypothesisof a single priced risk factor driving the term structure ofinterest rates. The method does not rely on any parametric specificationof the state variable dynamics or the market price of risk.It simply exploits the constraint imposed by the no-arbitragecondition on instantaneous expected bond returns. In order toachieve our goal, we develop a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and applyit to data on Treasury bills and bonds for both the United Statesand Spain. We find that the single risk factor hypothesis cannotbe rejected for either dataset. 相似文献
13.
Motivated by the implied stochastic volatility literature (Britten–Jones and Neuberger, forthcoming; Derman and Kani, 1997; Ledoit and Santa–Clara, 1998) this paper proposes a new and general method for constructing smile–consistent stochastic volatility models. The method is developed by recognising that option pricing and hedging can be accomplished via the simulation of the implied risk neutral distribution. We devise an algorithm for the simulation of the implied distribution, when the first two moments change over time. The algorithm can be implemented easily, and it is based on an economic interpretation of the concept of mixture of distributions. It can also be generalised to cases where more complicated forms for the mixture are assumed. 相似文献
14.
Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances.
We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is
followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria.
The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact
on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes
of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables
and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models.
JEL no. F32, C23, C53 相似文献
15.
William R. Dillon Ulf Böckenholt Melinda Smith de Borrero Ham Bozdogan Wayne de Sarbo Sunil Gupta Wagner Kamakura Ajith Kumar Benkatram Ramaswamy Michael Zenor 《Marketing Letters》1994,5(4):323-334
Our paper provides a brief review and summary of issues and advances in the use of latent structure and other finite mixture models in the analysis of choice data. Focus is directed to three primary areas: (1) estimation and computational issues, (2) specification and interpretation issues, and (3) future research issues. We comment on what latent structure models have promised, what has been, to date, delivered, and what we should look forward to in the future. 相似文献
16.
This paper uses the binary choice model to identify the factors that are significantly influencing the household purchase decisions of seafood products for home consumption in Auckland, New Zealand. It is found that ‘quality’ and ‘cooking easiness’ are the main product attributes that significantly influence households’ choices of seafood in Auckland. Also, the representative household has shown a strong preference for fresh and other alternative seafood products, including processed, smoked and canned, over frozen products. Retail outlets are found to be more attractive to the household purchasing seafood for home consumption. The New Zealand seafood industry may find this baseline study useful as a guide to developing future research structure on the domestic market. 相似文献
17.
随机生产前沿方法的发展及其在中国的应用 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
本文对随机前沿生产函数模型的发展及其在中国生产率分析中的应用进行了评述。文章首先介绍随机前沿方法的基本原理、估计方法和在面板数据下对全要素生产率增长的分解,随后评述随机前沿生产函数模型的最新进展和在经验分析中的优势与作用,最后总结了在中国行业和地区经济增长研究中随机前沿方法的成果和不足,并探讨今后研究的发展方向。 相似文献
18.
Calhoun Charles A. Deng Yongheng 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2002,24(1-2):9-33
This paper provides a side-by-side comparison of loan-level statistical models for fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages. Multinomial logit models for quarterly conditional probabilities of default and prepayment are estimated. We find that the estimated impacts of embedded option values for prepayment and default are generally quite similar across both FRM and ARM loans, providing additional empirical support for the basic predictions of the options theory. We also find that differences in estimates of conditional probabilities of prepayment and default associated with mortgage age, origination period, original LTV, and relative loan size, indicate the continued significance of these other economic and demographic factors for empirical models of mortgage terminations. 相似文献
19.
20.
Dong He Laurent L. Pauwels 《中国与世界经济(英文版)》2008,16(6):1-21
In the present paper, we model the policy stance of the People's Bank of China (PBC) as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a discrete choice regression that relates these observed indicators of policy stance to major trends of macroeconomic and financial developments, which are represented by common factors extracted from a large number of variables. The predicted value of the estimated model can then be interpreted as the implicit policy stance of the PBC. In a second step, we estimate how much of the variation in the PBC' s implicit stance can be explained by measures of its policy objectives on inflation, growth and financial stability. We find that deviations of CPI inflation from an implicit target and deviations of broad money growth from the announced targets, but not output gaps, figure significantly in the PBC's policy changes. 相似文献