Perspectives on risk and governance

Improper understanding and inefficient management of risk coupled with gaps in governance framework are considered to be major factors behind the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis. This article highlights the gaps in the risk management and governance framework which led to the crisis and delineates international initiatives in building robust governance systems. The article also analyses the impact of new regulations on the economic growth and bank profitability which is the subject matter of intense debate currently and underscores the necessity of adopting Basel III by EMDEs. Highlighting the Reserve Bank of India's policy initiatives in mitigating the impact of global crisis, the paper discusses some contemporary issues in Basel III implementation in India.     

Integration of Spatial Correlation into a Combined Travel Model with Hierarchical Levels

Abstract

A combined travel model incorporating spatial correlation is derived from the optimality conditions of a multi-objective optimization framework, in which the trip generation and distribution steps are expressed as hierarchical logit functions. Different forms of spatial correlation are shown to be easily accommodated in combined models using hierarchical logit structures. An extension incorporates spatial correlation into combined models enabling analyses of the impacts of urban development policies on transportation systems as well as the effects of transportation projects on trip generation. A principal finding is that integration of spatial correlation into travel models significantly improves their explanatory power and forecasting abilities; indeed, its exclusion may lead to biased parameter estimates.

RÉSUMÉ Un modèle sur des déplacements mixtes, comprenant une corrélation spatiale, est dérivé des conditions d'optimalité d'un cadre d'optimisation multi-objectifs, dans lesquelles la production du voyage et les mesures de distribution sont exprimées sous forme de fonctions logit hiérarchiques. On démontre que différentes formes de corrélation spatiales sont facilement incorporées dans des modèles mixtes, en permettant l'exécution d'analyses des impacts de politiques de développement urbain sur les systèmes de transport, ainsi que les effets de projets de transport sur la génération d'un déplacement. Une des principales conclusions est que l'intégration d'une corrélation spatiale dans des modèles de déplacement renforce de façon significative leur pouvoir explicatif et leurs capacités de prévision, et son exclusion peut même porter à des estimations paramétriques faussées.

EXTRACTO Un modelo combinado de viajes que incorpora correlación espacial se deriva de las condiciones de optimalidad de un marco de optimización de objetivos múltiples, en el que los pasos de generación y distribución de viajes se expresan como funciones logit jerárquicas. Se muestra que diferentes formas de correlación espacial son fácilmente acomodadas en modelos combinados utilizando estructuras logit jerárquicas. Una extensión incorpora correlación espacial en modelos combinados, permitiendo el análisis del impacto de las políticas de desarrollo urbano sobre los sistemas de transporte, así como de los efectos de los proyectos de transporte sobre la generación de viajes. Un hallazgo importante es que la integración de correlación espacial en modelos de viaje mejora significativamente su poder explicativo y habilidades de pronóstico; de hecho, su exclusión podría producir estimaciones parciales de parámetros.

摘要:

本文从多目标优化系统的最优化条件中得到了一种包含空间相关性的复合旅行交通模型, 其中旅行线路生成和行程规划作为分层logit函数。使用分层logit结构 ' 复

合模型可以轻松提供不同形式的空间相关性 。将复合模型进行拓展 ' 融入空间相

关性后 ' 分析城市发展政策对交通系统的影响以及交通工程对旅行线路的效果成为可能 。一个基本结论是 ' 将空间相关性纳入旅行交通模型能够大大提高模型的解释功能和预测能力 ; 的确 ' 不考虑空间相关性可能会造成参数估计偏差 。     

The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area

We develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and Global Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions in the euro area and between the euro area and the world economy. Specifically, we simulate a permanent reduction in labor tax rates in the euro area. The effects on real activity are expansionary in both the short run and long run. Implementing reforms simultaneously across regions would produce extra benefits and make the macroeconomic performance in the euro area more even.     

A micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches

This article presents a micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches. Using a survey among German firms which regularly queries the firms' assessment of the current willingness of banks to extend credit, we estimate the probability of a restrictive loan supply policy by time taking into account the creditworthiness of borrowers. Creditworthiness is approximated by firm-specific factors, e.g. the firms' assessment of their current business situation and their business expectations. After controlling for the return on the banks' risk-free investment alternative, which is also likely to affect the supply of loans, we derive a credit crunch indicator, which measures that part of the shift in the loan supply that is neither explained by firm-specific factors nor by the opportunity costs of providing risky loans.     

Information visualisation based on graph models

Information visualisation is a key component of support tools for many applications in science and engineering. A graph is an abstract structure that is widely used to model information for its visualisation. In this paper, we consider practical and general graph formalism called hierarchical graphs and present the Higres and Visual Graph systems aimed at supporting information visualisation on the base of hierarchical graph models.     

Introduction: The Elephant in the Living Room

Abstract

This paper compares the internal validity, external validity and ease of implementation of different types of compositional, decompositional and hybrid evaluation models in the context of recreational trip behavior. The results indicate that the full‐profile conjoint measurement model outperforms the self‐explicated models, the hybrid evaluation models and the trade‐off conjoint measurement model in terms of both internal and external validity, although the models differ less in terms of external validity. However, in terms of ease of implementation, the decompositional models may be less attractive.     

Is it a Timing or a Probability Effect? Four Simulations and an Application of Transition Rate Models to the Analysis of Unemployment Exit

Among the applications of event history analysis, in the last 10 years the lion's share has been played by proportional transition rate model. This type of models suffers from a major draw-back: it does not allow us to distinguish whether a covariate affects the event timing (the event occurs sooner/later) or the overall probability of the ultimate event occurrence (the chances of occurrence are constantly higher/lower). Thus, a positive/negative effect of a covariate found using a proportional transition rate model might reflect an acceleration/deceleration in the timing of the event and/or a high/low probability of the ultimate event occurrence (Yamaguchi, 1992). This paper shows how this problem can be reformulated in terms of the proportionality/non proportionality of the covariate effects. A twofold solution to disentangle the timing/probability problem is presented: this solution consists of a test of the proportionality of the covariate effects and a computation of the survival function at the end of the time interval studied. Two applications are discussed. The first one is based on four simulated processes. The second is based on an analysis of unemployment exit in Italy, with particular attention being paid to the effects of unemployment benefits. In the conclusion, implications for future applications of event history analysis are discussed.     

Alternative Models of Trustworthiness of Service Providers

ABSTRACT

The structure and dimensionality of the trustworthiness construct are important theoretical and practical issues. Building on the work of Ennew and Sekhon and based on a sample of 625 respondents, this research identifies a six-factor structure of trustworthiness of service providers in the retail banking sector: customer orientation, integrity and honesty, communication and similarity, shared values, expertise, and ability and consistency. After assessing the reliability and validity of this factor structure, the study also compares the five alternative models of trustworthiness. Results indicated that the trustworthiness model with the six first-order factors has the best model fit. Higher order confirmatory factor analysis was used to identify three second-order trustworthiness factors, which are competency, openness, and benevolence. The various dimensions of trustworthiness are viewable as levers of improving a bank's trustworthiness in the minds of its current and potential customers.     

Ships in the night and the quest for safety

Injury prevention, by its nature, is a highly multidisciplinary field and so is of direct or indirect interest to an exceptionally wide professional as well as lay audience. Although a safer society likely constitutes a common vision for most of those concerned with injury prevention, the concept of safety, when scrutinised, can be seen to be perceived and effected in different ways by different professional groups. In extreme cases, divergent approaches may continue to co-exist by becoming cocooned in worlds of their own, setting their own injury prevention priorities without much heed for what happens elsewhere. This diversity, because it is often only tacitly acknowledged if at all, can give rise to misunderstanding and even conflict between those with otherwise shared goals, and may also account for much of the public controversy frequently associated with safety issues. A further consequence of the existence of discrete and contrasting notions of safety is the introduction of an element of randomness into the overall societal process of achieving safety, which may dilute and, in some cases, even subvert the primary intention. This arises because of the unpredictability of the outcome where competing concepts are engaged. It is argued here that inter-professional discord is an impediment to the pursuance of safety, and that greater communication between professional disciplines and agencies organised along professional lines, and between professionals and the wider public, about the fundamental choices involved in injury prevention would enable safety to be pursued in a more effective manner, and that this should be in everyone’s interest.     

BAYESIAN INFERENCE METHODS FOR UNIVARIATE AND MULTIVARIATE GARCH MODELS: A SURVEY

This survey reviews the existing literature on the most relevant Bayesian inference methods for univariate and multivariate GARCH models. The advantages and drawbacks of each procedure are outlined as well as the advantages of the Bayesian approach versus classical procedures. The paper makes emphasis on recent Bayesian non‐parametric approaches for GARCH models that avoid imposing arbitrary parametric distributional assumptions. These novel approaches implicitly assume infinite mixture of Gaussian distributions on the standardized returns which have been shown to be more flexible and describe better the uncertainty about future volatilities. Finally, the survey presents an illustration using real data to show the flexibility and usefulness of the non‐parametric approach.