Chance Constrained Programming Formulations for Stochastic Characterizations of Efficiency and Dominance in DEA

Pareto-Koopmans efficiency in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is extended to stochastic inputs and outputs via probabilistic input-output vector comparisons in a given empirical production (possibility) set. In contrast to other approaches which have used Chance Constrained Programming formulations in DEA, the emphasis here is on joint chance constraints. An assumption of arbitrary but known probability distributions leads to the P-Model of chance constrained programming. A necessary condition for a DMU to be stochastically efficient and a sufficient condition for a DMU to be non-stochastically efficient are provided. Deterministic equivalents using the zero order decision rules of chance constrained programming and multivariate normal distributions take the form of an extended version of the additive model of DEA. Contacts are also maintained with all of the other presently available deterministic DEA models in the form of easily identified extensions which can be used to formalize the treatment of efficiency when stochastic elements are present.     

Integrating ecosystem services into conservation assessments: A review

A call has been made for conservation planners to include ecosystem services into their assessments of conservation priority areas. The need to develop an integrated approach to meeting different conservation objectives and a shift in focus towards human wellbeing are some of the motivations behind this call. There is currently no widely accepted approach to planning for ecosystem services. This study contributes towards the development of this approach through a review of conservation assessments and the extent to which they include ecosystem services. Of the 476 conservation assessments identified by a set of search terms on the Web of Science, 100 were randomly selected for this review. Of these only seven had included ecosystem services, while another 13 had referred to ecosystem services as a rationale for conservation without including them in the assessment. The majority of assessments were based on biodiversity pattern data while 19 used data on ecological processes. A total of 11 of these 19 assessments used processes, which could be linked to services. Ecosystem services have witnessed an increase in attention received in conservation assessments since the year 2000, however trends were not apparent beyond this date. In order to assess which types of ecosystem services and how they have been accounted for in conservation assessments, we extended our review to include an additional nine conservation assessments which included ecosystem services. The majority included cultural ecosystem services, followed by regulatory, provisioning and supporting services respectively. We conclude with an analysis of the constraints and opportunities for the integration of ecosystem services into conservation assessments and highlight the urgent need for an appropriate framework for planning for ecosystem services.     

Theory and practice of monetary policy

Summary. We consider an optimally managed renewable resource with stochastic non-concave growth function. We characterize the conditions under which the optimal policy leads to global extinction, global conservation and the existence of a safe standard of conservation. Our conditions are specified in terms of the economic and ecological primitives of the model: the biological growth function, the welfare function, the distribution of shocks and the discount rate. Our results indicate that, unlike deterministic models, extinction and conservation in stochastic models are not determined by a simple comparison of the growth rate and the discount rate; the welfare function plays an important role.Received: 20 October 2004, Revised: 28 February 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: D90, O11, O41, Q32.Santanu Roy: Correspondence toResearch on this paper was completed when the second author visited Cornell University in July, 2003. We thank the Center for Analytic Economics and the Department of Economics at Cornell University for making this research visit possible. The current version has gained considerably from the comments made by an anonymous referee.     

The Legislator as Political Entrepreneur: Investment in Political Capital

This paper applies the standard Austrian theory of capital investment to the standard interest group model of legislator behavior. Distinguishing between reputational capital and representative capital as interdependent forms of political capital, I argue that legislator behavior (specifically roll call voting) can be explained as entrepreneurial investment in political capital under uncertainty. I discuss several examples in which this approach can potentially add predictive power regarding legislative voting.     

Estimating exchange rate dynamics with diffusion processes: an application to Greek EMU data

Recently various exchange rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. Technically, these stochastic equilibrium models are diffusion processes which have to be estimated by discretely sampled observations. Using daily exchange rate data prior to the Greek EMU-entrance on 1 January 2001, we develop a rigorous estimation procedure. Our estimates point to an increasing interventionist economic policy in the run-up to the Greek EMU entrance. A comparison of this econometric indication with policy information provided (ex-post) by the Bank of Greece (BoG) in its Annual Report 2000 reveals that the BoG indeed pursued such an active policy stance (so-called institutional frontloading strategies).      

Accelerating leadership performance at the top: Lessons from the Bank of America's executive on-boarding process

This article examines the critical role that on-boarding processes play in the successful development of executive leadership talent. It is based on an in-depth case analysis of one organization's sophisticated on-boarding intervention. Specifically, we explore the potential of these interventions both to pre-empt leadership failures and to accelerate the knowledge and relationships necessary to step into an executive role. Lessons are provided on designing on-boarding interventions for senior leaders.     

通用制造工艺分类编码标准研究

在对通用制造工艺进行调研的基础上,采用面分类法和线分类法相结合的方式对制造工艺进行分类,得到制造工艺分类标准草案,以及在此基础上对通用制造工艺进行编码,有效地解决了机械制造企业信息化过程中对通用制造工艺知识的交流与共享问题。     

Nonparametric estimation of stochastic volatility models

This letter introduces nonparametric estimators of the drift and diffusion coefficient of stochastic volatility models which exploit techniques for estimating integrated volatility with high-frequency data. The performance of the proposed estimators is assessed on simulations of two popular stochastic volatility models.     

Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.     

The Lévy LIBOR model

Models driven by Lévy processes are attractive because of their greater flexibility compared to classical diffusion models. First we derive the dynamics of the LIBOR rate process in a semimartingale as well as a Lévy Heath-Jarrow-Morton setting. Then we introduce a Lévy LIBOR market model. In order to guarantee positive rates, the LIBOR rate process is constructed as an ordinary exponential. Via backward induction we get that the rates are martingales under the corresponding forward measures. An explicit formula to price caps and floors which uses bilateral Laplace transforms is derived.