基于溢出指数的上海与伦敦铜期货市场收益联动研究

分析表明,2006年1月5日至2010年4月29日上海期货交易所与伦敦金属交易所三个月期铜收盘价对数收益率一阶差分互为Granger原因,溢出指数为15.6%,说明上海期货交易所与伦敦金属交易所存在明显的收益溢出效应。进一步分解溢出指数,结果显示伦敦金属交易所在联动过程中处于主导地位,但溢出指数呈现下降的趋势,表明上海铜期货定价的自主性逐步加强。目前上海期货交易所还无法挑战伦敦金属交易所的世界铜定价中心的地位,中国还需进一步提升实力,增强国际铜定价的“话语权”。     

Financial Integration in Emerging Asia: Challenges and Prospects

Using both quantity‐ and price‐based measures of financial integration, the paper shows an increasing degree of financial openness and integration in emerging Asia. Assessing the impact of a regional shock relative to a global shock on local equity and bond markets, the findings suggest that the region's equity markets are integrated more globally than regionally, although the degrees of both regional and global integration have increased significantly since the 1997/1998 Asian financial crisis. However, emerging Asia's local currency bond markets remain generally segmented, being neither regionally nor globally integrated. There are potential benefits from increased regional integration of financial markets. Financial integration at the regional level allows for the region's economies to benefit from allocation efficiency and risk diversification. Policymakers in the region must strike the right balance between maximizing the net benefits from regional and global financial openness, and minimizing the potential costs of financial contagion and crisis.     

利率变动对我国证券市场的影响分析

股市是国民经济的重要组成部分,国民经济的宏观走势对股市有着非常重要的影响。在宏观经济的相关变量中,利率变动对股市带来的影响最直接、最明显。本文主要分析了利率变动对我国股指的影响,认为我国股市信息不对称现象严重,股市对利率变动预期有过度反应。     

政策性农业保险、合作制经营模式与博弈论证

农业风险的特殊性和农业保险的准公共性使得政府成为农业保险的直接提供者,其具有的政策性属性却也面临着经营模式的困境。体制机制占优的合作制经营模式成了当前农业保险试点的一个突破口,文章通过构造市场主体的期望收益矩阵和博弈图,进行对比分析,结果表明,合作制经营模式表现出了相对优越性。     

Stock listing and financial flexibility

A stock listing usually reflects easy access to external equity financing. Although scant empirical evidence exists on the matter, the literature suggests that the enhanced standing towards creditors - which would result in easier access to debt financing - is an extra advantage of being publicly quoted. This paper tests whether a stock listing leads to more flexibility of debt financing, using a data set of listed and comparably large unlisted companies. The data reveals that listing mainly increases the flexible use of debt financing. The difference between listed and unlisted firms is most apparent when investment opportunities tend to arrive in low-cash-flow states. Furthermore, as the unlisted firms in the dataset are all large consolidating business groups, the results indicate that a group structure does not substitute for listing. The results are robust to different estimation methods.     

The Choice and Role of Lockups in IPOs: Evidence from Heterogeneous Lockup Agreements

This paper analyses heterogeneous lockup agreements from the London Stock Market. With hand‐collected data, I compare and contrast absolute‐date lockups with the relative‐date lockups and single lockups versus staggered lockups. This paper tests several potential explanations for the choice of lockup contracts: (i) information asymmetry, (ii) signaling, (iii) agency problem, and (iv) certification. I find strong evidence for information asymmetry and certification (VC and prestigious underwriters) and partial support for agency explanation for the choice of lockups. The insider selling activity and lockup expiration returns are also consistent with asymmetric information, certification and agency hypothesis.     

我国上市公司控制权形态及治理规则多样化研究——以银行类上市公司为视角

主流理论认为,我国上市公司股权结构呈现一股独大特别是国有股一股独大的控制权形态,我国上市公司治理理论研究及规则设计多围绕此种股权结构和控制权形态展开。笔者以我国银行类上市公司为视角进行研究,得出我国上市公司已经不能以一股独大型的控制权形态来概括的结论,相应的,公司治理理论及规则制定也应该围绕多样化的股权结构和控制权形态展开。     

“汶川地震”的证券市场板块效应研究

本文采用事件研究法分别研究了汶川地震对我国金融板块和四川板块的影响。本文根据汶川地震的特点确定了估计窗和事件窗,选择市场模型作为正常收益的估计模型,得到了各个板块在事件窗内的累积非正常收益并对其进行了显著性检验。本文研究结果表明:汶川地震对我国金融板块没有显著性影响;汶川地震对我国四川板块的影响是四川板块组合的累积非正常收益由显著为正到显著为负的变化过程。     

基于半参数LM-ARMAX模型的股价波动成因分析

对股票价格波动的建模分析,一直是经济与金融研究的核心领域,是什么导致了股票价格的波动,也一直是投资主体共同关注的话题。有鉴于此,本文选择沪市1991-2010年所有上市公司的数据,建立了LM-ARMAX模型来实证股票价格波动的决定因素,最后根据模型半参数估计的结果,进行了基于半参数估计的非线性检验和基于Wild Bootstrap的Smirnov检验,结果表明:市账率和成交量是股票价格波动的主要因素,而净资产收益率对股票价格波动的影响不显著。     

国际商品市场与股票市场的溢出效应——基于中美数据的VAR-MGARCH分析

基于VAR-MGARCH-BEKK模型,对国际商品市场与中美股票市场之间的均值与波动溢出效应进行了经验分析。结果表明,国际商品市场与中美股票市场之间存在着相互的均值溢出效应,国际商品市场对中美股票市场存在波动溢出效应,同时,美国股票市场对国际商品市场存在波动溢出效应;另外,中国应该尽快编制科学合理并适合自身国情的商品指数。