Is it one break or ongoing permanent shocks that explains U.S. real GDP?

The relative importance of permanent versus cyclical shocks to GDP has been found to depend on the presence or absence of a single break in mean growth. We estimate unobserved components models conditional on a trend break having occurred in any specified quarter and use the Bayesian model averaging to combine the conditional estimates. We estimate a break occurred around 2006:1. Allowing for a break significantly reduces estimates of trend variance. However, enough spread remains in the posterior distribution to indicate that available data does not definitively settle the question of the relative importance of trend versus cycle.     

Exchange rate effect on carbon credit price via energy markets

This paper examines the impact of currency exchange rates on the carbon market. We scrutinize this effect through the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), which primarily uses two substitutable fossil energy inputs for the generation of electricity: coal and natural gas. The European coal market is directly driven by global coal markets that are denominated in USD, whereas, natural gas is mainly imported from Russia and is denominated in Euros. The impulse response functions of a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model demonstrate that a shock in the Euro/USD exchange rate can be transmitted through the channel of energy substitution between coal and natural gas, and influence on the carbon credit market.     

A neoclassical interpretation of momentum

The neoclassical theory of investment implies that expected stock returns are tied with the expected marginal benefit of investment divided by the marginal cost of investment. Winners have higher expected growth and expected marginal productivity (two major components of the marginal benefit of investment), and earn higher expected stock returns than losers. The investment model succeeds in capturing average momentum profits, reversal of momentum in long horizons, long-run risks in momentum, and the interaction of momentum with several firm characteristics. However, the model fails to reproduce the procyclicality of momentum as well as its negative interaction with book-to-market equity.     

Spatial takeoff in the first industrial revolution

Using the framework of Desmet and Rossi-Hansberg (forthcoming), we present a model of spatial takeoff that is calibrated using spatially-disaggregated occupational data for England in c. 1710. The model predicts changes in the spatial distribution of agricultural and manufacturing employment which match data for c. 1817 and 1861. The model also matches a number of aggregate changes that characterise the first industrial revolution. Using counterfactual geographical distributions, we show that the initial concentration of productivity can matter for whether and when an industrial takeoff occurs. Subsidies to innovation in either sector can bring forward the date of takeoff while subsidies to the use of land by manufacturing firms can significantly delay a takeoff because it decreases spatial concentration of activity.     

消费者视角下江苏医药企业履行社会责任满意度研究

从消费者视角出发,通过对江苏12家公立医院的300名消费者的实地调研,对江苏医药企业消费者社会责任履行的满意度的调研结果进行因子分析,并根据分析结论提出针对性的建议,以促进江苏医药企业更好的履行社会责任。     

Macroeconomic effects of structural reforms and fiscal consolidations: Trade-offs and complementarities

This paper studies the impact of product and labour market structural reforms and the effects of their joint implementation with alternative debt consolidation strategies. The set-up is a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated for the Greek economy. The results show that structural reforms produce important long-run GDP gains that materialize earlier, the faster the reforms are implemented. When implemented jointly with fiscal consolidations, structural reforms may amplify the short-run costs of fiscal tightening. The GDP dynamics depend on the fiscal instrument used for public debt consolidation. In the long run, however, there are complementarity gains irrespective of the fiscal instrument used.     

Individual differences in assessing problem similarity

This paper reports on a study which investigates the potential influence of perceptual differentiation (PD) ability on introductory accounting students' ability to identify and use analogies to solve problems. Accounting students with differing levels of PD ability first studied two sample problems with solutions which provided potential source analogues for analogical transfer. They then attempted to solve two analogous accounting problems differing only in the criteria for identifying problem analogousness. Findings suggest that PD ability may influence a problem solver's ability to identify analogous problems by affecting which problem features (surface or structural) he or she is likely to attend to and use for assessing problem similarity and potential analogousness. The paper concludes by discussing implications for pedagogical practices in accounting.     

论保险公司的人力资源管理

人力资源管理之所以重要是因为人力资源是保险公司获得可持续性竞争优势和财富的源泉 ,是公司核心竞争力的基础。中国入世 ,中国保险业要想在竞争中占居优势地位 ,就应重视人力资源管理 ,根据人力资源的不可效仿性、高度流动性和溢出性 ,通过持续人力资源开发与培训 ,建立市场经济体制下的用人机制 ,采取有效的员工激励机制 ,使员工各尽其能为公司做出最大贡献 ,最终确立保险公司的核心竞争优势 ,实现保险公司的可持续稳定发展。     

风马象征意义的结构分析

风马,作为世代生活在雪域高原上藏民族文化的一个标志性象征,多有学者进行研究,但就风马的象征意义只是在历史与宗教背景下的简单陈述,缺乏对风马象征意义的结构性认识。以前人关于风马的研究为基础,结合结构主义人类学相关理论,对风马象征意义的结构进行分析,试图得出风马象征意义深层内涵的结构。     

Does Multinationality Affect the Propensity to Innovate? An Analysis of the Third UK Community Innovation Survey

The paper is developed at the interface between internationalization and innovation studies. It utilizes data on innovation from the UK Community Innovation Surveys 3 and 2 (CIS3 and CIS2) to assess whether multinationality affects the innovation propensity of surveyed enterprises. The indicators of innovation propensity—our dependent variables—are taken from the following CIS sets of variables: innovation outputs; innovation inputs; innovation outcomes (patent applications); innovation continuity/sustainability. The latter element is considered to be the ability of the enterprise to sustain innovation over a long period of time and the relevant variable is derived from both CIS3 and 2 data. This allows the paper to introduce dynamic elements into the analysis. Four hypotheses are developed and tested. Our main hypothesis states that multinationality per se (i.e. being part of a multinational company network) affects the propensity to innovate. We also test for three sub‐hypotheses related to characteristics of multinationality: belonging to a group vs being independent; degree of multinationality; being part of a foreign vs domestic multinational. The results show that all those CIS enterprises that belong to a multinational corporation—whether UK or foreign—are more likely to exhibit innovation propensity; they are also more likely to engage in innovation activities on a continuous basis.