Credit vs. demand constraints: The determinants of US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011

The paper studies empirically how relative supply and demand conditions on the capital market affected US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011. A dynamic econometric specification of capital accumulation including sales growth, Tobin's q, the cash flow-capital ratio and the cost of capital as covariates is fitted by a rolling window System GMM estimator using quarterly data on publicly traded US corporations in order to obtain time-varying coefficients. We find that the investment effects of the variables capturing the demand-side of the capital market, i.e. sales growth and Tobin's q, behave counter-cyclically, whereas this does not hold for the investment effects of supply-side variables such as cash flow or the cost of capital. Our results suggest that investment was typically driven by adverse demand rather than supply conditions on the capital market during the most severe recessions.     

A system dynamics model as a decision aid in evaluating and communicating complex market entry strategies

Developing a market entry strategy is a critical activity for any firm but all the more so for those firms that wish to successfully compete in today's challenging global economy. Unfortunately, developing a market entry strategy is an ill-structured and complex activity for which structured approaches have proven inadequate. In less structured situations, data driven and model based decision-support systems (DSS) have been shown to be of significant help to decision-makers faced with such tasks. Getting managers to use such systems, however, is a major challenge that has been the subject of considerable research in the field of DSS. As far back as the 1970's scholars identified reasons why managers are reluctant to use such systems. Among the most often cited reasons why managers are reluctant to use these systems are: they do not understand the model inherent in the DSS; they do not know when to use them; they are unable to extend the use of the DSS; or they are unable to explain the model or its output to others. This paper describes the process of building a system dynamics model that can be employed by marketing managers to help them test the effectiveness of different market entry strategies, and equally important to help them to explain the system's logic and output. The model was built in a bottom-up fashion with the help of a team of marketing managers. In this way the team that helped build the model not only felt a sense of ownership concerning the model, but were also be able to better explain and defend their proposed strategy.     

论城市低保中的社会排斥及解决路径

近年来,我国城市低保制度取得了许多令人瞩目的进展,但是也存在着比较突出的社会排斥问题,把相当一部分城市贫困人口排斥在低保之外。究其原因,主要是对贫困及致贫原因认识的偏差、社会救济理念认识的滞后、识别低保户的困难、低保资金支出压力大等造成的。因此,建设服务型政府、调整社会救助资金的来源构成、专业的社会工作者介入社会救助工作就成为解决社会排斥问题的路径选择。     

国外跨流域水利工程运行管理体制分析

本文在简要介绍美国、澳大利亚等国家跨流域调水工程运行管理经验和特点的基础上,提出了相应的建议,以期对我国南水北调工程的运行管理提供一些借鉴。     

中国商业银行薪酬激励机制及效率增进

薪酬制度是商业银行激励机制的重要组成部分,合理的薪酬制度不但能有效激发员工的积极性,提高银行效益,而且能在人力资源竞争激烈的环境下吸引和保留住一支具有竞争力的员工队伍。对于中国的商业银行来说,如何最大程度地发挥员工和管理人员的积极性,建立高效的薪酬激励机制具有非常重要的现实意义。     

区域旅游产业品牌竞争力评价指标体系构建研究

区域旅游产业竞争力对区域旅游产业和旅游经济有重要的作用.以产业竞争力理论为基础.考虑旅游产业、区域环境和品牌三个方面的因素,构建了区域旅游产业品牌形成的因素模型.依据模型,从以上三个维度,具体从资源、产业水平和协调、区域硬环境和软环境、品牌的建设、营销、保护和创新等方面建立了旅游产业品牌竞争力的评价指标体系.     

中央银行再贷款政策及转型研究

再贷款是指中央银行对金融机构发放的贷款,是中央银行体制形成以来的重要的货币政策手段,也是中央银行作为最后贷款人的政策工具。基于对央行再贷款政策三次转型历程的分析,针对当前再贷款存在的问题,我国再贷款政策需要进行第四次转型。转型目标是再贷款作为“最后贷款人”的调控手段,并建立存款保险制度作为转型的制度保障。     

我国农业投资的制度研究

针对我国现行家庭联产承包责任制所具有的恢复性、改良性和风险累积性制度缺陷，根据农业投资专用性、长回收期和实物期权的特征，本文从农业的投资收益、投资风险两个方面，对我国农业投资进行了制度研究，提出了推行农业用地永佃制的构想和建议。     

金融机构风险管理机制有效性研究——对风险管理长效机制问题的思考

本文针对我国金融界普遍关注的“建立风险管理长效机制”问题。从理论和实践两个角度研究风险管理的有效性问题。第一部分讨论“效”和“长效机制”问题的本质,第二部分根据发达国家实践研究有效风险管理机制的主要内容,第三部分对风险管理有效性的相关理论进行分析,第四部分分析风险管理失效的现实原因。第五部分对我国金融业实践中存在的风险管理“花瓶论”进行分析和评论,最后是本文的基本结论。     

煤泥试验分析及药剂优化

根据新建选煤厂煤泥浮选药剂消耗过高的现状,通过分步释放试验分析煤泥的性质,了解煤泥中不同可浮性物料的数量、质量的分布规律;通过煤泥浮选的优化试验,确定浮选过程中的最佳药剂量,从而提高浮选精煤的回收率,减少尾煤的排放量,提高尾煤的灰分,取得较好的经济效益。