从政治合法性视角看社会主义核心价值体系的重塑

政治合法性是由广大民众给予积极社会支持与认可的政治统治的合理性和正当性。而意识形态的宣传和教化是一个政党获得政治合法性的基础,社会价值体系又是意识形态最直接的体现。党在新时期提出建立社会主义核心价值体系,从政治学的视角来看,这对新时期加强中国共产党信仰方面权威,增强政治合法性基础有着重大的意义。     

Evolutionary choice of markets

We consider an economy where a finite set of agents can trade on one of two asset markets. Due to endogenous participation the markets may differ in the liquidity they provide. Traders have idiosyncratic preferences for the markets, e.g.due to differential time preferences for maturity dates of futures contracts. For a broad range of parameters we find that no trade, trade on both markets (individualization) as well as trade on one market only (standardization) is supported by a Nash equilibrium. By contrast, whenever the number of traders becomes large, the evolutionary process selects a unique stochastically stable state which corresponds to the equilibrium with two active markets and coincides with the welfare maximizing market structure. We are grateful to Thorsten Hens, Fernando Vega-Redondo and a referee for valuable comments. We also thank seminar participants at the University of Zurich, the CES research seminar at the University of Munich, the Koc University in Istanbul as well as conference participants at the SAET conference in Ischia, the ESEM in Lausanne and the ESF workshop on Behavioural Models in Economics and Finance in Vienna. A first version of the paper was written while Marc Oliver Bettzüge was visiting the Institute for Empirical Research in Economics at the University of Zurich. Financial Support by the Swiss Banking Institute and by the National Centre of Competence in Research “Financial Valuation and Risk Management” (NCCR FINRISK) is gratefully acknowledged. The NCCR FINRISK is a research program supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation.     

The growth of knowledge: Testing a theory of scientific revolutions with a formal model

Modern theories of science emphasize scientific revolutions rather than the traditional cumulative view of scientific progress. Thomas Kuhn, in particular, has formulated a theory of science based on the lifecycle of paradigms. Though Kuhn's theory is attractive, no calculus is offered by which the theory can be tested. This study tests the dynamic consistency of Kuhn's theory by formalizing the theory and testing it with a computer simulation model. The model plays the roles of the actors, tracing out the consequences of their day-to-day actions. Sensitivity tests are used to explore the importance of various hypotheses. Results show the theory to be dynamically consistent: The lifecycle of paradigms described by Kuhn can be accounted for by Kuhn's theory. Kuhn's theory thus passes a test to which few other theories of science have been subjected. The study shows how modeling can provide a method for testing theories even when those theories are stated entirely in qualitative terms, at a high level of abstraction, and in a context divorced from explicit dynamic analysis.     

科学发展观背景下的公共支出管理改革

考察我国现有的公共支出管理,存在着依托背景微观化、制度约束软化、支出结构不够优化以及绩效考评体系缺失等问题。改革的方向是在满足社会公共需要和使公共服务均等化的前提下,明确政府支出责任,改革预算编制,优化支出结构,提高支出效率,以及研究和解决逆向预算软约束问题。     

面向科技智库的科技创新政策监测体系构建研究

科技创新政策研究是科技智库的核心职责之一，科技创新政策监测是开展科技创新政策研究的基本工具和手段，但目前针对科技创新政策监测体系的系统研究却不多。针对科技创新政策研究需求，创新性地以科技创新政策监测体系为研究对象，系统分析科技创新政策监测对象的范畴、科技创新政策监测的主要方法、科技创新政策智能监测的系统功能、科技创新政策监测的产品设计，可为相关科技智库机构开展科技创新政策研究提供一套具备操作性的研究模式，为后续科技创新政策监测研究提供有益借鉴。     

The Dynamic Evolution of Preferences

This paper develops a general methodology for characterizing the dynamic evolution of preferences in a wide class of strategic interactions. We give simple conditions characterizing the limiting distribution of preferences in general games, and apply our results to study the evolutionary emergence of overconfidence and interdependent preferences. We also show that this methodology can be adapted to cases where preferences are only imperfectly observed. Earlier drafts of this paper were circulated under the title: “The Evolution of Perception Biases” and some of these results appeared in the earlier working paper Heifetz, Shannon and Spiegel (2003). We thank three anonymous referees for their helpful comments. Shannon thanks the NSF for research support under grant SES-0351346.     

The economic agent as rule maker and rule user: <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Homo Sapiens Oeconomicus</Emphasis>

The paper discusses the micro foundations of evolutionary economics, introducing a unified concept of the economic agent as a rule maker and rule user. Based on recent findings of the neuronal, cognitive and behavioral sciences, Homo Sapiens Oeconomicus emerges as an alternative to Homo Oeconomicus. A taxonomy of rules distinguishing between cognitive, behavioral and blueprint rules and a set of theoretical propositions related to the structure and evolution of those rules are suggested.JEL Classification: A 12, B 41, B 52, B 53, D 00, D 64, D 80, D 83, E 11, L20The present paper had its origin in a research project on The Interdisciplinary Foundations of Economic Decision Making supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation during 1978-1980. The core of that work was a brain model whose architecture also serves as a corner stone for this paper. Since then there have been substantial developments in the respective areas; some of the major findings of the more recent research in the neuronal, cognitive and related sciences are discussed and integrated into the present paper. - I gratefully acknowledge insightful comments and criticisms from Georg D. Blind. Some ideas were discussed during my tenure as a Visiting Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Queensland, in fall 2003, and I wish to record my appreciation of the hospitality during that visit. Particular thanks for the inspiring discussions go to Peter Earl, John Foster, and, as always, Jason Potts. Special thanks are due to Juli Lessmann and Charles R. McCann for their thoughtful corrections of my English prose and their editorial help. The usual disclaimer applies.     

要给证券市场正确定位

中国股票市场不是自下而上自发产生的,而是由政府自上而下建立起来的,政府是股票主要供应者,又是股票市场监管者,这决定了中国股票市场的初始阶段必然是政策市;由于对股票市场定位偏差和制度性缺陷,中国股票市场过度投机,无优化资源配置功能;现在解决中国股市历史遗留问题的条件已经成熟;不能把政府失效产生的问题都推给市场解决,解决中国股市的问题要靠政策与市场的合力,现在关键在政策力度.     

论农村公共产品供给与地方财政改革的路径依赖——一个基于地方公共物品理论的分析框架

"新农村建设"已成为我国"十一五"规划的重要内容,然而当前农村公共产品的供给困境已成为实现这一战略目标的最大障碍.本文通过构建一个地方公共物品的理论框架,结合现行财政体制和农村消费主体的特点,并在一定的实证分析基础上,重新定位农村公共产品供给中地方财政的地位与职能,同时提出改革途径的政策建议.     

会计制度与税收法规的协作

本文在评介会计制度与税收法规的协作历程的基础上 ,讨论两者在税收征收管理的信息需求方面加强协作的必要性 ,并运用模拟法以“租赁或借款安排”为例实验分析了在税收监管中实现有效合作的可能措施。文章认为 ,应当大力提高国内税务筹划的研究水平 ,以推动税制和税法的进一步完善 ;在制度层面上 ,应当实现会计信息对税务征管实务的支持作用 ,从而加强反避税的工作力度。