Subprime cohorts and loan performance

Loan performance of subprime originations during the boom years of 2004–2006 is contrasted with that of subprime originations during the early period of 2000–2002. A counterfactual technique is developed to determine how originations during the early period would perform in a different environment, namely, the environment faced by originations of 2004, 2005, and 2006. In an environment where house prices are increasing rapidly, low credit score originations do not show high rates of default—as was witnessed for 2000–2002 cohorts. However, in an environment of stagnant or deteriorating home prices, low credit score originations show significantly higher rates of default than high credit score originations. With a greater proportion of low credit score originations, earlier cohorts of 2000–2002 were no less vulnerable to the environment faced by cohorts of 2004–2006. In essence, these results raise concerns about the viability of all cohorts of subprime originations because of their reliance on the appreciation of the underlying collateral rather than the creditworthiness of the borrower.     

The Japanese labour market during the global financial crisis and the role of non-standard work: A micro perspective

This paper analyses aggregate labour dynamics during the global financial crisis in Japan and the role of non-standard work using micro data. The analysis proceeds in two steps. First, using comprehensive establishment-level datasets for the period 1991–2009, it provides a detailed portrait of the adjustment behaviour of establishments at the micro level. Second, it compares aggregate labour market dynamics during the global financial crisis with that observed during the 1997 crisis and decomposes the observed differences into components that can be attributed to changes in the micro-adjustment behaviour of Japanese establishments, changes in the incidence of non-standard work and changes in the distribution of shocks across establishments. It finds that the incidence of non-standard work has increased considerably, worker turnover is much higher among non-standard than standard workers and adjustments in working-time are less important for non-standard workers. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the employment response during the global crisis would have been smaller if the incidence of non-standard work remained at the level observed during the 1997 crisis. The relatively small employment response observed during the global financial crisis is therefore driven by factors other than the increase in the incidence of non-standard work.     

Systemic financial risk early warning of financial market in China using Attention-LSTM model

We propose an Attention-LSTM neural network model to study the systemic risk early warning of China. Based on text mining, the network public opinion index is constructed and used as a training set to be incorporated into the early warning model to test the early warning effect. The results show that: (i) the network public opinion is the non-linear Granger causality of systemic risk. (ii) The Attention-LSTM neural network has strong generalization ability. Early warning effects have been significantly improved. (iii) Compared with the BP neural network model, the SVR model and the ARIMA model, the LSTM neural network early warning model has a higher accuracy rate, and its average prediction accuracy for systemic risk indicators has been improved over short, medium and long terms. When the attention mechanism is included in the LSTM, the Attention-LSTM neural network model is even more accurate in all the cases.     

Effects of crisis response tone and spokesperson's gender on employer attractiveness

Timely apologies to key publics on social media are becoming an important aspect of crisis recovery but little is known of how the spokesperson’s characteristics and the tone of apology may influence the outcome. Recognising the importance of the need to attract quality workforce, this study examines the impact of social media response to a preventable crisis on organisational attractiveness. Specifically, a 2 (message tone: corporate/formal vs. human/informal) x 2 (spokesperson’s gender: male vs. female) between-subjects factorial design was used to test the effectiveness of an apology. The results suggest a significant moderated mediation effect. We find that account acceptance mediates the relationship between message tone and organisational attractiveness, and this effect is conditional on gender of the spokesperson. The results are relevant to crisis managers and brand managers that seek to attract and retain talents.     

Competition and stability in the credit industry: Banking vs. factoring industries

Over the last decade, most credit-industries registered a decline in lending volumes, while factoring industries instead registered a substantial growth in terms of turnover. Surprisingly, only a handful of papers so far investigate factoring companies. Do factoring firms display the same stability levels of banks? Is the competition similar in factoring and banking industries? Is the relationship between competition and stability the same in these industries? Focusing on Italy (one of the largest factoring and banking markets in Europe) and using a unique dataset, we show three main results: factoring companies are (on average) more stable than banks; 2) the stability of factoring companies increase when competition declines (competition-fragility view); 3) the competition-fragility view is weaker in the factoring industry than in the banking industry. Our findings indicate that competition in the Italian credit industry was greater in factoring than in banking.     

Connectedness and systemic risk spillovers analysis of Chinese sectors based on tail risk network

This paper investigates the systemic risk spillovers and connectedness in the sectoral tail risk network of Chinese stock market, and explores the transmission mechanism of systemic risk spillovers by block models. Based on conditional value at risk (CoVaR) and single index model (SIM) quantile regression technique, we analyse the tail risk connectedness and find that during market crashes, stock market exposes to more systemic risk and more connectedness. Further, the orthogonal pulse function shows that Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of edges has a significant positive effect on systemic risk, but the impact shows a certain lagging feature. Besides, the directional connectedness of sectors shows that systemic risk receivers and transmitters vary across time, and we adopt PageRank index to identify systemically important sector released by utilities and financial sectors. Finally, by block model we find that the tail risk network of Chinese sectors can be divided into four different spillover function blocks. The role of blocks and the spatial spillover transmission path between risk blocks are time-varying. Our results provide useful and positive implications for market participants and policy makers dealing with investment diversification and tracing the paths of risk shock transmission.     

Bank business models and liquidity creation

Using a large panel of US bank holding companies from 2001 to 2015, this study investigates the association between functional diversification and bank liquidity creation. I document evidence of lower liquidity creation for higher diversification. The effect of moving into nontraditional activities on liquidity creation is more apparent with large banks and less pronounced with small banks. The impact of diversification on liquidity creation is less significant during the late stage of crisis and is more clearly observed in small and medium-sized banks. Low liquidity creation banks, leveraged by a higher share of non-interest income, are more likely to further decrease their liquidity creation. The study is of interest to regulators and policymakers who are concerned about bank business models.     

Freeing Greece from capital controls: Were the restrictions enforced in time?

Recent developments in Greece have caused for the implementation of banking capital controls on the outflow of funds, a policy decision not uncommon, especially in emerging markets. However, the issues of the Greek economy, which seem to stem from the public sector but have been passed on to the banking sector, pose a unique challenge to researchers. In this paper, we employ VBanking, an object-oriented model for banking simulations to examine whether capital controls in Greece were enforced at the appropriate time. Additionally, we propose that the banking sector will not purge this regulation soon. Finally, we demonstrate the destructive effects of capital controls both on the financial system and on the real economy. We present the empirical results of our work, which suggest that the Greek authorities’ response to the deterioration of the banking sector was lagged.     

Measuring the deadly embrace: Systemic and sovereign risks

This study contributes to the literature by making a first step toward implementing a comprehensive internally coherent measurement of systemic risk in a country. It measures systemic risk and the ensuing conditional contingent liabilities of the sovereign stemming from Luxembourg’s Other Systemically Important Institutions (OSIIs), the Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) to which they belong, the investment funds sponsored by the OSIIs, the household and the non-financial corporate sectors. The ensuing estimated systemic contingent claims are included in a stochastic version of the general government’s balance sheet to gauge their impact on the country’s sovereign risk. Results indicate that time-varying conditional implicit guarantees from OSSIs are larger than those from G-SIBs and investment funds, while systemic risk stemming from the household and non-financial corporate sectors is moderate. The robustness of the sovereign is not drastically affected by systemic risk stemming from the rest of the economy. However, illustrating the so-called “deadly embrace”, sovereign risk would significantly rise as a result of a historically plausible increase in sovereign assets’ value volatility combined with an economy-wide shock. The main policy implication is that financial stability stands on two columns, a resilient financial sector and a sustainable fiscal position.     

Creating a safe haven during the crisis: How organizations can achieve deep compliance with COVID-19 safety measures in the hospitality industry

The COVID-19 health crisis has engendered a set of additional health and safety regulations and procedures (e.g. social distancing) to the hospitality industry. The purpose of this paper is to explore in-depth how organizations can facilitate employees’ deep compliance with these procedures. Employing an instrumental case-study approach, we collected multi-level interview data and archival data in a small-medium sized restaurant in China. The findings reveal that employees’ deep compliance with safety procedures includes a four-stage psychological process, and this process is underpinned by both management safety practices and organizational crisis strategies. As the hospitality industry starts to exit lockdown and ramp up operations, this study offers theoretical and practical insights on how organizations in hospitality can protect the health and safety of their employees and the broader community.