企业风险传导及其载体研究

本文在概述风险与企业风险的基础上定义了何为企业风险传导,并对企业风险的传导路径作了归纳和分析;阐述了在企业风险的传导链和传导网络中,载体是风险传导过程中风险各要素相互联系的桥梁,也是各要素相互作用实现的有效形式;还揭示了在整个风险传导过程中,载体具有承载风险和传导风险的作用,同时,风险源、驱动力以及风险载体之间相互作用形成的耦合效应也使载体在企业风险传导链中具有“放大镜”的效应;并从企业风险传导的角度探讨了如何防范和控制企业风险。     

Keynes, uncertainty and interest rates

Uncertainty plays an important role in The General Theory, particularlyin the theory of interest rates. Keynes did not provide a theoryof uncertainty, but he did make some enlightening remarks aboutthe direction he thought such a theory should take. I arguethat some modern innovations in the theory of probability allowus to build a theory which captures these Keynesian insights.If this is the right theory, however, uncertainty cannot carryits weight in Keynes's arguments. This does not mean that theconclusions of these arguments are necessarily mistaken; intheir best formulation they may succeed with merely an appealto risk.     

Financial crisis in Southeast Asia: dispelling illusion the Minskyan way

This paper extends Minsky's financial instability hypothesisto the case of the open, ‘liberalised’, economy,making it possible to put forward a specifically Minskyan accountof the road to the financial crisis in Southeast Asia (1997/1998).The analysis suggests that the threats to growth and employmentemanating from the financial sector which Minsky identifiedin the closed economy setting are much intensified in open,liberalised, developing economies. Financial liberalisationis an important key factor in this process. Rival explanationsof the crisis are examined and rejected in favour of the extendedMinskyan explanation. The policy implications are derived anddiscussed.     

Giffen goods and market making

Summary. This paper shows that information effects per se are not responsible for the Giffen goods anomaly affecting traders demands in multi asset noisy, rational expectations equilibrium markets. The role that information plays in traders strategies also matters. In a market with risk averse, uninformed traders, informed agents have a dual trading motive: speculation and market making. The former entails using prices to assess the effect of error terms; the latter requires employing them to disentangle noise traders demands within aggregate orders. In a correlated environment this complicates the signal extraction problem and may generate upward sloping demand curves. Assuming (i) that competitive, risk neutral market makers price the assets or that (ii) uninformed traders risk tolerance coefficient grows unboundedly, removes the market making component from informed traders demands rendering them well behaved in prices.Received: 30 April 2002, Revised: 3 December 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: G100, G120, G140.Support from the Barcelona Economics Program of CREA and the Ente per gli Studi Monetari e Finanziari Luigi Einaudi, are gratefully acknowledged. I thank Anat Admati, Jordi Caballé, Giacinta Cestone, and Xavier Vives for useful suggestions. The comments provided by the Associate Editor and an anonymous referee greatly improved the papers exposition.     

我国跨国公司融资问题分析

我国跨国企业资本结构不尽合理，资产负债率总体水平偏低，而且呈稳中趋降的趋势。造成这一现象的根本原因是我国跨国企业在融资顺序的选择上倾向于股权融资而忽视债权融资，存在明显的股权融资偏好，这与融资优序理论相悖。本文以跨国企业为研究对象，从我国跨国企业融资行为及其导致的资本结构存在的问题入手，通过对这种现象产生的原因的深入分析，对我国跨国企业融资结构优化提出了几点建议。     

Government financing in an endogenous growth model with financial market restrictions

Summary. In this paper, we develop an endogenous growth model with market regulations on explicitly modeled financial intermediaries to examine the effects of alternative government financing schemes on growth, inflation, and welfare. In the presence of binding regulation, there is always a unique equilibrium. We perform four alternative policy experiments; a change in the seigniorage tax rate, a change in the seigniorage tax base, a change in the income tax and a change in the fiscal-monetary policy mix. We find that in the presence of binding legal reserve requirements, a marginal increase in government spending need not result in a reduction in the rate of economic growth if it is financed with an increase in the seigniorage tax rate. Raising the seigniorage tax base by means of an increase in the reserve requirement retards growth and it has an ambiguous effect on inflation. An increase in income tax financed government spending also suppresses growth and raises inflation although not to the extent that the required seigniorage tax rate alternative would. Switching from seigniorage to income taxation as a source of government finance is growth reducing but deflationary. From a welfare perspective, the least distortionary way of financing an increase in the government spending requirements is by means of a marginal increase in the seigniorage tax rate. Under the specification of logarithmic preferences, the optimal tax structure is indeterminate. Received: March 20, 2000; revised version: June 26, 2001     

金融衍生工具的风险暴露与监控框架设计

分析金融衍生工具的活动特点，观察金融衍生工具的风险暴露，研究金融衍生工具各种监控方式的内涵、主要操作手法、适用的范围以及可供选择的对策，有助于建立起全球性金融衍生工具监控框架设计体系。     

关于金融风险监测的思考

文章根据金融风险预警指标体系的设计原则，提出一套由八个指标构成的金融风险监测预警指标体系，并用综合指数法对金融风险进行综合度量。     

IT集成项目的风险评价与控制

本文就 IT集成项目的风险问题进行了系统研究和探讨 ,其内容包括 IT集成项目的特点、风险的产生与特征、预测和评价、防范和控制等。     

新兴加转轨条件下中国证券公司的风险成因及监控

证券业是一个高风险行业 ,防范和化解风险是证券公司和监管机构的永恒主题。随着我国证券市场的蓬勃发展和逐渐规范 ,证券公司风险监控已经成为一项长期的重大任务。中国目前正处于新兴加转轨过程中 ,证券公司主要面临哪些风险 ?是如何形成的 ?在特定约束条件下怎样提高监控效率 ?围绕这些问题 ,本文首先对中国证券公司的风险及其成因进行分析 ,接着从实践的角度指出风险监控的现实约束 ,最后提出内外部风险监控协调与平衡的基本架构。