Asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks on economic performance: empirical evidence from Turkey

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks on the macroeconomic variables of exchange rate, output and inflation for an emerging economy ? Turkey ? by using monthly data between 1990 and 2014. We employ the innovative nonlinear vector autoregressive model of Kilian and Vigfusson (2011), which allows us to observe the effect of different stances (tight or loose) and different sizes (small or large) of monetary policy actions. Our empirical evidence reveals that tight monetary policy, which, in this case, is captured with a positive shock to interest rate, decreases exchange rate, output and prices, as economic theory suggests. Loose monetary policy, which is captured with a negative shock to interest rate, has the opposite effect on these variables. However, the effects of loose monetary policy are weaker than the effects of tight monetary policy because loose monetary policy shocks are less effective than tight monetary policy shocks. Moreover, as the magnitude of a shock increases, the difference between the effects of tight and loose monetary policy policies also increases.     

The impact of housing market disturbances on the US financial system: a pre-crisis analysis

A common critique of the Federal Reserve over the past crisis is that it should have better anticipated the impact of the run-up in home mortgage debt and the subsequent housing market crash on the financial system. As a result, the Federal Reserve should have moved much more quickly to shore up financial markets. Our article tests the hypothesis that the impact of the housing market crash on the financial system could have been anticipated. Using a VAR model along with impulse response functions and variance decompositions, we examine the link between housing market mortgage debt shocks and the financial intermediaries’ credit market behaviour. We find important connections between key macroeconomic variables and the credit behaviour of these financial institutions. However, using the pre-crisis data, we find that housing market debt shocks fail to have an impact on the credit markets accessed by these firms. These results support the notion that the impact of this crisis on the financial system could not have been anticipated given the information available at the time.     

Fiscal sustainability and dollarization: the case of Ecuador

This article tries to disentangle the dynamic relationships between fiscal variables and economic activity in a small emerging economy characterized by full dollarization, namely, Ecuador. We find that fiscal policy in Ecuador seems to be sustainable, explained by its policy of debt payment through oil revenues, rather than by a fiscal discipline that dollarization is supposed to encourage. The non-oil tax revenues variable is a purely adjusting variable. This result suggests that in a dollarized country that cannot benefit from the ‘seignorage’ revenues, the reliance on volatile oil revenues and on smoothing tax revenues leaves the economy’s fiscal sustainability vulnerable.     

我国政府环境规制在低碳经济发展中作用的实证分析

本文分别从静态和动态两个方面构建一元回归估计模型以及自向量回归VAR模型,研究政府环境规制与各类能源碳排放之间的关系,从而探索我国政府环境规制在低碳经济发展中作用,本文研究认为：政府环境规制与各类能源碳排放之间存在动态关系,环境规制是碳排放量的格兰杰因果关系,长期以来,我国政府环境规制投入赶不上经济发展对能源消耗的需求,造成各类能源碳排放不断增加,在低碳经济发展的道路上,政府环境规制的作用是显著性的,未来我国政府必须加强政府环境规制的投资额度,更要加强环境规制投入的力度,综合利用国家规制手段,实现我国低碳经济的长期稳定发展。     

深圳成分指数收益率的VAR分析

根据VAR理论和计算方法,利用我国成份指数为研究对象,分析我国深圳成份指数的VAR值,并进行比较分析,最后给出相应的结论。     

企业级建设项目管理利器--MS Project 2002

项目管理软件MS Project2002的一个重大改进是提供了网络化的企业级项目管理平台，只需使用一个Web浏览器，就可以访问个性化的建设项目信息、协作工具，并对项目和资源信息进行连续一致的建模、分析和报告。这为建筑企业适应信息经济环境下的新挑战提供了支持。     

铝合金材料ε—N 曲线研究

本文分别采用 Manson—Coffin 公式和 Fu's 公式,对8条铝合金材料ε—N 曲线试验数据进行了分析、处理,并对两种公式所处理试验数据的绝对误差和相对误差作了比较。结果表明,Fu's 公式比著名的 Manson—Coffin 公式能更好地描述铝合金材料ε—N 曲线。而且 Fu's 公式还简化了ε—N 曲线的测试工作。     

Is the Austrian business cycle theory still relevant?

We compile econometric evidence from the latest available time series data on US savings, consumption, interest rates, and gross domestic product (GDP) to test a reduced form model of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT). We build indexes that mimic the gap between the market and natural rates of interest and, using this gap as a proxy for expansionary policy, uncover evidence that changes in reserves lead to changes in real GDP in the manner predicted by ABCT. In addition, we establish that the pattern of endogenous changes in output, from positive to negative, also conforms to the predictions of ABCT. Thus, by incorporating improvements with regard to data and methods over the few other examples of econometric work in this area, we provide more distinctive evidence on ABCT relative to competing theories of the business cycle than has been done previously.

Dissecting the Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks on the Korean Economy

Micro- as well as macro-level analyses on the terms of trade (TOT) for Korea are conducted. We demonstrate that the deteriorated TOT since the mid-1990s are largely attributable to declines in export prices of manufacturing goods and surges in energy import prices. A further investigation using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model identified by sign restrictions on impulse responses suggests that the structural innovation that reduces export prices and increases import prices is the most significant driver of the TOT fluctuations in Korea. Although the shock deteriorates the TOT, it is clearly associated with an expansionary effect on output, which is more pronounced at longer horizons.     

研发投入与中国经济增长:基于VAR模型的研究

我国从1988年开始才正式对研发投入进行统计,由于受到数据可得性和样本规模的限制,以往学者很难从宏观视角对我国研发投入和经济增长之间的定量关系进行深入研究。为此,根据我国1988-2006年的有关数据,建立了向量自回归模型,对我国研发投入与经济增长之间的长期均衡关系进行了检验,在协整关系存在的前提下,进一步检验了二者的格兰杰因果关系,并利用脉冲响应函数对两者的动态关系进行了分析。