近期银行间市场隔夜拆借利率波动的原因分析

2011年以来,银行间市场隔夜拆借利率波动明显增强。尤其在月末与次月初表现得更为明显。这反映了银行流动性趋紧、货币调控“边际效应”增强的影响,也与存款“冲时点”有一定关联,从而使央行流动性调节与管理面临新的挑战。为此,有必要进一步加强对银行体系流动性走势的预测分析,研究改进商业银行流动性考核方式,使银行体系流动性保持在合理水平。     

信用环境、定向降准与小微企业信贷融资——基于合成控制法的经验研究

信用环境建设作为一项国家正大力推进的基础性金融工作,有助于缓解信息不对称。作为地方政府,如何推进信用环境建设落地成为当前的执政之要。浙江省台州市通过搭建信用信息共享平台进行了积极尝试,目前全国已有20多个地区复制推广,但是这一举措对增加小微企业信贷获取是否明显有效,学术界鲜有研究。本文基于2012—2015年城市层面季度数据,采用合成控制法,研究信用环境建设中信用信息平台的搭建对银行发放小微企业贷款的影响。研究发现,信用信息平台搭建有效地促进了银行发放小微企业贷款,但其作用效果还受到当时宏观政策背景的影响,并非一直显著。进一步使用农村商业银行微观数据研究表明,地方信用环境建设能够促进中央银行的定向降准政策在地方上发挥“支小”作用,并且随着信用环境建设质量的提升,享受定向降准政策优惠的银行其风险承担意愿也在增强,对小微企业“敢贷、愿贷”。本文的研究发现既是对“加强营商环境建设”这一决策部署的学术回应,也为“精准滴灌”货币政策的实施提供了有益参考。     

参与精准扶贫与企业创新——基于外部融资视角的分析

为实现消除农村贫困和区域贫困的目标,在党和国家的号召下,越来越多的上市公司参与到精准扶贫战略中,然而学术界对企业参与精准扶贫经济后果影响的相关研究还有待进一步丰富和拓展。以2016-2018年沪深A股上市公司为样本,文章实证检验了企业参与精准扶贫工作对其创新绩效的影响。研究结果表明,参与精准扶贫显著提高了企业的创新产出和创新效率。在改变变量度量方法、更换模型以及使用安慰剂检验和PSM模型控制内生性问题等一系列稳健性检验后,结论仍然成立。进一步探讨其中的作用机制发现,企业参与精准扶贫通过缓解融资约束进而提升了创新绩效,而资源效应（降低债务融资成本和提高税收优惠）和声誉效应（增加媒体正面报道数量）是参与精准扶贫所发挥的外部融资作用。最后,基于宏观社会层面、中观市场层面以及微观企业层面的异质性分析表明,参与精准扶贫对企业创新的正向影响主要存在于地方扶贫压力较大、资本市场信息环境较差的企业以及非国有企业中。通过理论分析和实证检验,本文不仅丰富了参与精准扶贫和企业创新领域的相关研究,也对充分发挥资本市场在服务国家脱贫攻坚战略中的作用以及深入实施创新驱动发展战略、发挥企业在技术创新中的主体作用具有重要的启示意义。     

Strategic Implications of Keeping Product Value Secret from Competitor’s Customers

Customers can sometimes learn unanticipated or hidden use value of a firm’s product whereas the non-customers remain uninformed about that extra value. A monopolist will increase its profit by informing the non-customers of its product’s hidden value. However, our analysis reveals that this may not be true when the firm faces competition in the market—the firm may actually make a higher profit if it keeps its hidden value secret from its competitor’s customers even if advertising to inform those customers is costless. This is because no advertising leads to information heterogeneity among consumers about the existence of the firm’s hidden value, which gives an incentive for both firms to continue targeting their own existing customers rather than poaching each other’s customers, alleviating price competition and increasing firms’ profits. This beneficial strategic effect of keeping some product value secret from the competitor’s customers can persist even when the firms anticipate the hidden value and compete more aggressively for customers in the early period. Our research suggests that firms can benefit from an “under-promise and over-deliver” strategy if they refrain from communicating their extra value to the competitor’s customers. Moreover, positive word of mouth about a firm’s product will not necessarily benefit the firm and can in fact make all firms worse off.     

The logic of Keynes' criticism of the Classical model

The Classics' remedy for unemployment was to lower money wages. Keynes opposes this remedy. Therefore, in The General Theory, he aims at building a model in which a fall in money wages may not cause an increase in employment. Most of the interpretations of Keynes identified this aim, but did not attach enough importance to it. Reading The General Theory in the light of this aim, we discover what Keynes' logic of elaboration is, then what Keynes' ideas about voluntary or involuntary unemployment are.     

Country factors and the investment decision-making process of sovereign wealth funds

In this paper, we examine the complex decision-making processes that lead to sovereign wealth funds' (SWFs’) choice of investment location. Using a two-tiered dynamic Tobit panel model, we find that country-level factors do not have the same impacts on the investment decision and the amount to invest and that SWFs tend to invest more frequently and at higher amounts in countries in which they have already invested. More specifically, we find that SWFs prefer to invest in countries with higher political stability, whereas they are more prone to invest large amounts in countries that are less democratic and more financially open. Our results also lend support to the idea that SWFs are prudent in their choice of a target country with regard to their investment decision but behave as more opportunistic investors with regard to the amounts to be invested.     

从精准扶贫走向跨区域联合开发——基于我国深度贫困县分类研究基础上的扶贫战略升级建议

我国扶贫工作经历了漫长的艰苦奋战,尤其2015年以来,精准扶贫力度空前加大、成效显著,终于在2020年末,我国脱贫攻坚取得胜利、彻底消除绝对贫困.然而,从贫困县尤其深度贫困县情况看,由于贫困区自身条件较为恶劣而且连片贫困区域较多,许多区域虽如期脱贫、消除了“绝对贫困”,仍无法短期内根除“相对贫困”.笔者在对全国334个深度贫困县分类研究和实地考察基础上,拓展精准扶贫思路,从贫困连片区、跨县角度研究,提出了跨区域联合开发的扶贫战略升级建议.     

Grade inflation in restaurant hygiene inspections: Repeated interactions between inspectors and restaurateurs

Restaurant hygiene grading schemes are considered exemplars of targeted transparency policies. We investigate the impact of an administrative design feature found in many schemes: repeated interactions between health inspectors and restaurateurs. Data was analyzed from 336,208 inspections of 27,119 restaurants conducted by 493 inspectors from 2000 to 2010 by the Los Angeles Department of Public Health (LADPH). The findings associate repeated interactions with higher public letter grades, and these grades drop with the assignment of a new inspector. Specifically, a one-unit increase in the logged number of visits by a prior inspector is associated with a 71% increased chance the restaurant will be downgraded to a lower letter grade upon the arrival of a new inspector. Exploiting an inspection protocol change in 2007, we also find that inspectors with more repeated visits to a restaurant are more likely to code a higher number of compliant rules as “Not Observed,” thereby possibly avoiding potential violations and corresponding penalties. Analysis of subsequent consumer complaints filed with the local health department shows that a one-unit increase in repeated inspector-restaurateur interactions is associated with an 10% increase in the likelihood of a consumer complaint, suggesting a public health impact. Coupled with prior evidence, the study demonstrates that administrative and design features of targeted transparency policies can impact the information provided to the public and potentially affect health outcomes.     

非小细胞肺癌靶向治疗药物的疗效及经济性研究综述

目的综述非小细胞肺癌靶向治疗药物的临床疗效及药物经济学评价结果。方法基于非小细胞肺癌的流行病学特征和治疗发展趋势,选取临床应用较多的靶向治疗药物,并检索国内外相关文献,对其治疗非小细胞肺癌的临床疗效和经济性进行综合分析。结果吉非替尼和厄洛替尼是目前针对非小细胞肺癌最受关注的靶向治疗药物。针对不同类型的患者,两者表现出不同的临床疗效,而较少的药物经济学研究显示了其经济性。结论吉非替尼和厄洛替尼的临床疗效和经济性在总体上优于其它治疗方案,但还需更深入的研究。     

PPP在精准扶贫中的应用研究

精准扶贫是解决我国贫困问题的最好方法,PPP模式可解决精准扶贫中的一些难点问题。在精准扶贫中采用PPP可以缓解政府部门的财政压力,提高基础设施和公共服务质量,激活社会资本精准扶贫的积极性,降低政府部门、社会资本和扶贫项目的风险。同时,在将PPP应用到精准扶贫时,应完善相关法律法规,营造良好的制度环境,培养专门人才,进行科学绩效考核,加强教育宣传和合理分担风险与利益,以更好地完成精准扶贫目标。