Customized Targeting Strategies for Category Coupons to Maximize CLV and Minimize Cost

It is standard procedure to use short-term measures for designing customized marketing campaigns and evaluating their success. We consider the integration of customer lifetime value (CLV) thinking into the category selection problem for targeted coupons. This problem involves two primary considerations: should the coupon be a category-specific one? – and, if so, should short-term or rather long-term objectives govern the choice of category? Our paper is the first to address these questions by analyzing the effects of different customized targeting strategies for category coupons on short-term marketing costs and long-term CLV using an analytical model. We develop these targeting strategies with the help of a data-driven customer segmentation framework based on the dimensions of churn, frequency, and loyalty. Using data from a German hypermarket chain, we identify four refined targeting strategies that enable multi-category retailers to exploit the full potential of customized marketing by optimizing the trade-off between marketing cost and CLV considerations. Our analysis reveals that the targeting strategy most likely to be employed by retail practice – as compared with the one most commonly used – can yield a substantially higher CLV even as it reduces wasteful marketing costs.     

高速铁路技术经济指标对投资影响的分析

高速铁路项目具有工程种类多、建设标准高、施工难度大、建设周期长等特点,导致高速铁路工程投资控制难度较大。以国内不同地区的5条高速铁路线路为研究背景,在简述铁路建设项目工程概况的基础上,分析不同地区、不同速度目标值、不同轨道类型对工程投资及技术经济指标的影响,为高速铁路工程在设计、施工阶段合理把控投资、合理运用建设资金提供参考。研究结果表明:影响高速铁路工程投资的因素是多样的,而且各因素对工程投资的影响是系统的,不宜单一、孤立地去分析。     

Spatio-temporal pattern and driving forces of construction land change in a poverty-stricken county of China and implications for poverty-alleviation-oriented land use policies

Sustainable land use, targeted poverty alleviation (TPA) and integrated urban/town development are key issues for the poverty-stricken counties of China. This paper explored the spatio-temporal pattern and driving forces of construction land change in Longzhou, a typical poverty-stricken border county in southwest China, based on high-resolution remote sensing images and field investigations. The results showed that, from 2011 to 2016, the construction land in Longzhou increased by 10.08%. The largest increase shown by urban built-up areas (37.74%) followed by rural residential (25.48%), industrial and mining (20.96%), and transportation areas (15.49%) as well by tourist facility areas (0.33%). The accelerated urban development, rural housing construction, and construction of industrial parks and transportation facilities are main factors driving construction land expansion, while the implementation of TPA strategy and the booming of border trade activities are important policy drivers of the construction land expansion. Some of the major implications for improving poverty-alleviation-oriented land use policies were further discussed. The authors argue that land use policy innovation could play a key role in breaking the Matthew effect (poor get poorer, rich get richer) of China's uneven regional development and generating and accelerating the transformation development of poverty-stricken counties. It is fundamental to meet the demand of construction land for TPA, meanwhile raise the intensive level of land utilization. The authors suggest that the government need to further improve and implement preferential land use policies for poverty-stricken counties from the provincial level, appropriately increase the quotas of construction land, and effectively strengthen the rational, efficient and intensive use of the quotas of construction land, and provide solid land policy support for poverty alleviation and thus achieve the Sustainable Development Goals with higher quality.     

Drugs,guns, and targeted competition

We consider a dynamic competition game involving three players, in which each player can vary the extent of his competition on a per-rival basis. We call such competition targeted. We show that if the players are myopic, then the weaker players eventually lose the game to their strongest rival. If instead the players are sufficiently far-sighted, then all three players converge in their power and stay in the game. We develop our model in application to drug wars, but the approach of targeted competition can be applied to competition between firms or political parties, or to warfare.     

西藏地区科技精准扶贫模式创新:对吉纳村的个案研究

相较于其它扶贫途径,科技扶贫具有内生性扶贫的积极特征,是精准扶贫的根本出路。科技精准扶贫并不是简单的技术培训,而是一项系统工程,涉及诸多因素的复杂互动,需要一整套社会支持系统的配合。西藏地区吉纳村在科技精准扶贫过程中注意与当地生产生活方式及社会文化传统相结合,创造性地探索出一些有益的可持续模式,取得了显著成效。吉纳村模式具有较高的借鉴价值。     

基础设施建设支出、结构性减税与最优政策选择

财政政策的最优政策选择问题对于国家宏观调控政策的出台具有指导意义。既往的研究忽略了利用动态一般均衡的方法探求具有双重外部性的基础设施建设支出与结构性减税支出的政策选择问题。本文利用引入基础设施建设支出和结构性减税的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,测算比较基建支出和结构性减税的政策福利效应。研究表明：具有双重外部性的基础设施建设支出不仅可以通过提高生产效率的方式促进产出,还可以通过挤入居民消费的方式加强政策福利效应。经过测算,短期的基建支出乘数大于结构性减税的政策乘数。同时,基建支出长期平均产出乘数小于结构性减税的平均产出乘数。与结构性减税政策相比,增加基建支出对于财政资金有限的政府是短期内更加有效的产出刺激政策,但在长期中,结构性减税政策不仅具有较高的政策效应,还可以从消费、劳动、投资等角度实现结构性政策目标。进一步研究发现,地区经济发展水平的不同会导致各地区的最优政策选择存在差异性：发达地区可以通过结构性税收政策解决结构性问题的同时实现长期经济增长;而欠发达地区则更应该注重运用基础设施建设为主的支出政策以促进经济增长;但随着人口逐渐从欠发达地区流出,提高欠发达地区的基建支出是否是可行之策,还需要考虑区域协调发展等诸多因素。     

陕西实施精准扶贫战略个案研究——以岚皋县为例

在全面建设小康社会的背景下,从岚皋县个案展开对陕西省脱贫攻坚情况的研究。思路为:基于精准扶贫理论,从产业脱贫、易地搬迁脱贫、生态脱贫、教育脱贫、医疗脱贫、就业脱贫、旅游脱贫、兜底脱贫、金融扶贫等角度深入阐述和总结岚皋县脱贫经验,并建议加强岚皋富硒茶的品牌建设和保护生态环境。     

定向降准与商业银行行为选择

为应对金融危机冲击,世界各国普遍实施了大规模的宽松货币政策,目前这些政策的效果正在日益弱化且副作用越来越大,市场呼吁货币当局推出更低成本、更精准、副作用更小的调控政策,在此背景之下,定向调控类的货币政策应运而生,其中就包括中国人民银行推出的定向降准政策。本文以农业贷款作为定向降准政策的代表性调控目标,构建了一个包含农业贷款收益与非农贷款收益的商业银行跨期效用函数,在具有信贷配给特征的信贷市场均衡分析框架下,研究了货币当局定向降准释放流动性时货币政策的传导渠道及商业银行的行为选择,并使用现实数据进行了仿真模拟。结论显示,定向降准具备一定的“调结构”功能,但受商业银行农业贷款与非农贷款行为选择的临界值限制,在特定区间内商业银行不会扩大农业贷款的发放。为了更好地发挥定向降准政策的效果,定向类货币政策还需要其他政策的协调配合。     

从“双到”扶贫到精准扶贫:广东农村扶贫体制的变革与发展

将扶贫资源传递到贫困户及贫困人口等目标人群,是扶贫理论与实践上一个难题。政府主导的开发式扶贫所包含的若干元素,都影响了扶贫资源的传递及其效率。自2009年后,广东农村扶贫体制经历了"双到"扶贫到精准扶贫的变革。在这一变革中,扶贫的组织机构、贫困户识别、扶贫资金对贫困人口覆盖、扶贫资金管理及扶贫考核制等有明显改进,但仍存在识别成本高昂、扶贫依赖于驻村工作队与扶贫干部,扶贫政策的着力点与贫困人口需求不一致、产业扶贫政策与实践存在较大偏差等难以克服的问题,因此,脱贫攻坚之后,作为乡村振兴战略重点的精准扶贫,在扶贫体制上应进一步变革,逐步实现扶贫治理模式的转变和形成良性社区发展。     

我国农业保险对农业生产影响效应的实证分析——基于精准扶贫视角

基于我国31省（自治区、直辖市）2007-2015年面板数据,本文从灾前与灾后两个 维度,首先理论分析了农业保险对农业生产的影响机理,再运用系统GMM模型和门槛效应模 型实证检验了农业保险对农业生产的线性和非线性影响。研究结果表明：农业保险灾前对农业 生产具有显著的负向影响,灾后具有显著的正向影响,但农业保险对农业生产的灾后正效应大 于灾前负效应,所以总体上农业保险促进了农业生产水平的提高;农业保险灾前影响效应对农 业生产存在显著的门槛特征,而灾后影响效应对农业生产不存在门槛特征;农业保险对农业生 产的影响依赖于农业生产风险水平,且农业保险对农业生产的促进作用随风险水平提高而下 降。另外,人力资本、农村劳动力转移、农业生产风险水平均对农业生产有显著影响,而人均 农作物播种面积、农业生产现代化水平则影响不明显。