通货膨胀目标制:内容、特点与启示

通货膨胀目标制是20世纪90年代以来货币政策实践的最新发展。这一新的货币政策框架使中央银行的独立性增强,货币政策透明度增加,货币政策操作更具前瞻性,并提高了货币政策的可信度。其成功经验,对完善中国货币政策操作具有启示和借鉴意义。     

Weighing what’s practical: proxy means tests for targeting food subsidies in Egypt

Despite achieving a significant cost reduction over the past two decades, the absolute cost of food subsidies in Egypt is still high relative to the benefits received by the poor. There is scope for better targeting these food subsidies, in particular for targeting cooking oil and sugar ration cards, both because reforms in this area are perceived to be far less politically sensitive than adjusting subsidy policy for bread and wheat flour and because higher income groups presently receive a significant percentage of the benefits. Targeting the high-subsidy green ration cards to the poor and the low-subsidy red ration cards to the nonpoor will require identification of both poor and nonpoor households. An International Food Policy Research Institute research team in Egypt, in collaboration with the Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Supply, developed a proxy means test for targeting ration cards. The paper describes the process of moving from the optimal income-predicting model to the final model that was both administratively and politically feasible. An ex-ante evaluation of the levels of accuracy of the proxy means testing model indicates that the model performs quite well in predicting the needy and nonneedy households. An effective and full implementation of this targeting method would increase the equity in the ration card food subsidy system, and, at the same time, the total budgetary costs of rationed food subsidies would decline. Moreover, the experience gained under this reform would facilitate targeting future social interventions to reduce and prevent poverty in Egypt.     

资产价格对核心通货膨胀指数的修正

在目前被广泛认同的通货膨胀钉住货币政策操作中,对核心通货膨胀指数的选择存在一定争议,常用的CPI及GDP平减指数是否能真正准确及时地反映实际通货膨胀水平受到了部分经济学家的质疑。Alchian和Klein(1973)首次系统提出了对传统核心通货膨胀指数的批评,以及使用资产价格等其他经济变量对其进行修正的想法。本文将实证分析资产价格对我国传统核心通货膨胀指数的修正作用,并通过一个动态凯恩斯模型在加入通货膨胀钉住策略约束后进行检验,结果显示,经修正后的新指数可以使既定的货币政策更有效。     

Pilferage from opaque food subsidy programs: Theory and evidence

Theft rates from subsidized food programs vary greatly and strongly influence program efficiency. Unfortunately, the determinants of these variations remain understudied because the agencies that run these programs seldom publicize the allocations of subsidized food to local markets. We develop a theoretical model of pilferage which predicts that: (i) pilferage from opaque programs is likely to rise more than proportionately with per capita food allocations; (ii) pilferage of inferior goods may be lower in poorer communities; (iii) pilferage rates need not rise as price subsidies are increased; and (iv) pilferage may rise as the relative quality of subsidized food is reduced. A comprehensive literature review and new estimates of pilferage across regions of the Philippines validates these predictions. Our finding, that around 48% of the subsidized rice went missing, is robust to new tests for sampling and recall error. Our policy discussion encourages geographic over administrative targeting, greater transparency in food allocations, and the use of realistic quotas.     

Inflation-targeting rules: History-dependent or forward-looking?

This note discusses the inflation-targeting strategy if price setting gives rise to a hybrid Phillips curve. The strategy is inverted relative to private sector pricing behavior: if private sector price setting is backward-looking, policy should be forward-looking, and vice versa.     

通货膨胀目标制度与我国货币政策借鉴——兼论泰勒规则

内容本文将近似理性假设引入新兴新古典综合理论(New Neoclassical Synthesis),建立起通货膨胀目标制度的理论模型(NPC-MPR模型)和新兴新古典综合泰勒规则模型。之后对我国1993年第一季度到2005年第四季度的宏观经济数据进行协整检验,建立误差修正模型。进而提出了我国货币当局选择通货膨胀目标制度下实施泰勒规则的路径,以提高货币政策的针对性和有效性,稳定物价,促进经济增长。     

Sexual health education for young tourists

There is a pressing need for developing effective sexual health education for a high-risk group of young tourists. The purpose of this study was to explore the necessity of sexual health education for young tourists and to identify the characteristics of potentially successful sexual health messages. The data were obtained from three mixed-gender focus groups and 13 individual interviews (N = 32) and analyzed using constructivist grounded theory. The findings highlight the necessity for innovative sexual health education methods supporting young adults' decision-making in tourism. Participants' recommendations for sexual health education for tourists included informing decisions about safer sex instead of condemning sex; developing tourism-focused, age-specific, and gender-sensitive messages; varying messages’ emphases on risks vs. benefits; and individualizing the messages based on risk perceptions and motivations. These recommendations can be explained and applied using context-specific, harm reduction, and health promotion approaches as well as the methods of targeting, framing, and tailoring.     

住房保障政策瞄准效率及其影响因素——来自北京市廉租房和经济适用房政策的实证

为探讨住房保障政策效率,本文分别运用Probit模型和多元Logit模型,实证测算了北京市廉租房和经济适用房的瞄准效率及其影响因素。结果发现:(1)从住房保障政策瞄准效率看,廉租房明显高于经济适用房,并且,随着政府保障能力的提升,提高住房保障收入标准和瞄准效率之间将是一个两难选择;(2)在住房保障收入标准较低时,一些显性指标可以用来作为识别保障对象的辅助性工具;(3)从廉租房瞄准错误的原因看,目标家庭所在社区规模越大,出现第Ⅰ类瞄准错误的可能性越大。     

Targeting agricultural research to benefit poor farmers: Relating poverty mapping to maize environments in Mexico

We explore approaches for targeting agricultural research to benefit poor farmers. Using small area estimation methods and spatial analysis, we generated high-resolution poverty maps and combined them with geo-referenced biophysical data relevant to maize-based agriculture in Mexico. We used multivariate classification and cluster analysis to synthesize biophysical data relevant for crop performance with rural poverty data. Results show that the rural poor are concentrated in particular regions and under particular circumstances. Formal maize germplasm improvement trials were largely outside the core areas of rural poverty and there was little evidence for direct spillover of improved germplasm. Agro-climatic classification used for targeting breeding is useful but often ignores some important factors identified as relevant for the poor. Combining this method with poverty mapping improves stratifying and targeting crop breeding efforts to meet the demands of resource-poor farmers. We believe this integrated approach will help increase benefits from agricultural research to poor rural communities.     

Optimal income support targeting

This paper considers the practical problem of distributing a fixed budget for poverty alleviation to a population whose poverty status is not directly observable. The solution we propose improves on the techniques that are commonly used in practice by taking both the concavity of the social welfare function and the entire conditional distribution of poverty status into account, and by endogenously determining the optimal transfer levels. We provide an algorithm to calculate the optimal transfers for any population of benefit applicants. Finally, we explain how our method is a generalization of statistical classification techniques and thus provide an intuitive discussion of the defects of currently operational methods. JEL CodeH2 · C4