中小企业融资与中小银行发展——由中国现实问题引发的理论与实证分析

长久以来困扰我国经济发展的一个突出问题是中小企业融资难、融资贵.本文首先梳理了中小企业融资的理论基础,即基于"软信息"的关系型贷款.在理论分析之后,我们继之以中小企业贷款实证分析的综述,将理论与实证进行了交叉印证.接下来,我们使用中国商业银行资产负债表微观数据,分析了中国中小银行服务中小企业的成功与不足之处.研究发现众...     

中国通货膨胀率持久性变化研究及政策含义分析

通胀率持久性在通胀率动态研究中备受学界的关注,并且直接影响现代货币政策传导机制的终解方程式。本文对我国通胀率持久性的统计特性做了严谨的计量检验和分析,应用“格点拔靴(自举)”中值无偏估计和Exp-Wald未知断点检验来捕捉我国物价波动持久性的特征。统计结果显示,通胀率持久性在高通胀时期走高,而在物价波动减小的20世纪90年代中后期显著减弱。我们讨论了这一发现对相关货币政策分析机制的含义。     

投资需求、利率机制与我国财政政策的有效性

本文在传统凯恩斯模型和新古典总供需模型的基础上构建了一个可计量的财政政策利率效应分析模型,并利用2LS方法对模型进行了估计,得出几点结论:一是我国财政政策对真实利率的影响在统计上并不显著;二是财政政策与真实利率之间无关性的估计结果并没有受财政赤字弥补方式和经济运行机制变化的影响;三是相对于财政政策,我国货币政策对真实利率的影响更显著,货币政策的相机变化通过利率机制对财政政策的有效性产生了一定的抵消作用,但程度有限。上述结论意味着,我国财政政策通过利率机制对私人部门投资需求产生的挤出效应是相当有限的。     

关系型融资对货币政策传导的影响效应探析

中国文化在一定程度上是一种关系本位的文化。渗透于我国社会生活的所谓关系网,对我国的经济活动有深刻的影响。本文选择了关系型融资对货币政策传导的影响这一视角,通过构建关系型融资对货币政策传导的影响的模型,考察了银行收益与融资量和概率间的关系,同时考察了企业融资需求与价格间的关系。通过研究发现央行单一紧缩货币总量、管制利率政策都难以有效控制商业银行的关系型贷款量,而关系型融资情况下信息不对称和预算软约束的存在更使央行的货币政策难于有效传导,央行的总量性货币政策难于奏效。为此,本文探讨了提高央行货币政策有效性的对策,以期达到货币政策对关系型融资的有效传导。     

试论消费税税制改革与完善

目前,消费税成为世界各国广泛研究的课题,在税收政策中扮演越来越重要的角色。我国自1994年1月开始征收消费以来,消费税收入从514．07亿元增长到1634亿元,翻了3倍。但是,由于消费税是一个与社会发展同步的税种,同时我国的消费税税制处于发展的初级阶段,现行消费税税制还存在一些问题。2006年4月1日,我国对消费税税制做了一次重大的调整,是自实行消费税以来第一次重大变革,为以后的进一步完善消费税指明了方向。     

Conditions influencing the adoption of a soda tax for public health: Analysis of the French case (2005–2012)

Although over 40 jurisdictions have adopted a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) for public health worldwide, it is still debated in many places. Policy processes can influence the prospect of an SSB tax, its design and its public health benefits. To get an insight into such processes, we undertook a case study of the soda tax enacted in France on the 1^st of January 2012. Newspaper articles (2003–2013) and institutional documents (2007–2012) were identified using keywords and search engines. Qualitative data extraction and analyses were performed on a thematic and chronological basis, with guidance from Kingdon’s multiple streams theory (MST). Triangulation was enhanced by using complementary sources. This study shows that in August 2011, the French government surprisingly announced a €3.58 cent/L excise tax on SSBs, excluding juices with no added sugars and non-calorically sweetened beverages (NCSBs). As part of a large budgetary plan, the proposal aimed to reduce SSB consumption and raise revenue that was earmarked for health care. Several conditions contributed to opening a policy window: The announcement occurred in the context of severe budgetary deficits; soda tax scenarios had already been discussed at a high level; and the bill was supported by convinced political leaders. Subsequently, the tax successfully passed through the legislative process due to a series of unexpected events, but its public health rationale and design were weakened. The first event was the disorganised reaction by the food industry, despite their sharp opposition to the tax. The next event was the support of the soda tax that came from a majority of Deputies, provided that the revenues would serve another purpose: relieving wage costs in the farming sector. Finally, policy entrepreneurs favoured a compromise to make the tax politically acceptable and legally viable: The tax rate doubled, the scope was extended to NCSBs and revenues were split between health care and agriculture. This study sheds light on influence factors that could be taken into account by public health actors willing to influence soda tax policy processes.     

Investigating menu kilojoule labelling policy adoption from a political science perspective

Implementation of internationally recommended policy options for obesity prevention has generally been slow and inadequate globally, and, as such, it is important to understand barriers and enablers to policy action in the area. This study aimed to apply political science theories to understand influences on the adoption of Menu Kilojoule Labelling Legislation in Victoria, Australia over the period 2009–2017. Data collection included 13 in-depth semi-structured interviews with participants of the policy development and decision-making processes, analysis of 68 policy documents, and field note observations. Data were analysed using established political science theories: the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) and the Multiple Streams Theory (MST). There were numerous and interrelating factors that influenced the Menu Kilojoule Labelling Legislative policy processes. Barriers to policy reform included electoral turnover, a dominance of neoliberal ideology, and policy maker concerns regarding potential food industry backlash. Key enablers to eventual policy change included the accumulation of evidence on policy effectiveness and feasibility of implementation, increased recognition of the importance of tackling the issue, as well as reductions in political risks achieved, in part, through relatively long consultation and negotiation processes. Findings highlight several tactics that can be used to secure similar policy change in future, including generation, dissemination and translation of implementation evidence, effective mobilisation of supporters, and negotiation and consultation processes that can reduce the degree of opposition to proposed policies.     

The long overhang of bad decisions in agro-industrial development: Sugar and tomato paste in Ghana

In theory, learning from past mistakes should result in adapted and improved development policy. However policy learning can be difficult to achieve, and the link between learning and policy change is neither direct nor immediate. In this study we look at learning in agro-industrial policy in Ghana, by tracing the interest in sugar production and tomato processing over six decades. Specifically we ask why four failed factories established in the early 1960s have continued to play central roles in both policy and public discourse. Using policy documents, academic material, and the popular press, we show that Ghana’s policy focus on sugar production and tomato processing has endured, despite the fact that the factories were misconceived, poorly sited, ill-equipped and poorly managed. Indeed, the political ideas that underpinned the establishment of these factories in the early days of independence can be seen in the current One District, One Factory policy. We suggest that it is their symbolic and political value, not their economic value, which keeps the discussion around these factories alive. Even when shut down, they are a physical manifestation of historic commitments by the state, and as such they guarantee the attention of politicians, and hold out hope of a next re-launch. Unfortunately as long as the factories continue to be incorporated into each new generation of agro-industrial policy, it is difficult for any alternatives to gain traction. This analysis highlights the very long overhang of bad decisions, particularly when they are associated with physical infrastructure. Learning from past mistakes will only happen if the short-term political cost of turning policy learning into policy action can be overcome.     

Viewpoint: Soda taxes – Four questions economists need to address

The popularity of soda taxes as a public health policy has grown rapidly in the last few years. While the evidence that the tax works in reducing the purchases of soda is emerging, there are a number of questions that are yet to be answered before the broader effectiveness of this measure can be determined. Beyond health effects, there is more specifically a need to better understand the economic mechanisms of change, redistributive effects, as well as causal and spillover effects in food systems and economy more broadly.     

经济政策不确定性与家族企业创新 ——融资约束及政府补助视角

家族企业作为社会发展的主要参与者,在促进经济增长方面发挥着不可替代的作用。家族企业若想实现长期发展,必然依靠创新。然而,我国家族企业普遍面临创新投入不足、创新产出效率低下等问题。基于2010—2018年中国上市家族企业数据,分析经济政策不确定性对于家族企业创新是否存在激励作用。结果发现,经济政策不确定性提高,会对家族企业创新研发活动投入与产出产生正向激励作用,促进家族企业创新。从融资约束与政府补助视角,分析两者在上述正向激励作用中的调节作用。结果表明,对于融资约束小以及受到政府补助的家族企业而言,其受到经济政策不确定性的正向激励作用更显著,有助于其开展创新研发活动。结论不仅验证了经济政策不确定性对于家族企业创新的激励作用,还揭示了融资约束以及政府补助的调节作用,可为政府制定相应补助政策,构建完善的金融市场提供理论支持和经验证据。