International Spillover Effects and Monetary Policy Activism

This paper examines how the preferences of a large economy’s central bank affect the trade‐off between output and inflation volatility faced by the central bank of a small open economy by analyzing the impact of a global cost‐push shock. We demonstrate that under the assumption of producer currency pricing, the trade‐off faced by the small open economy is likely to worsen as the foreign central bank becomes more focused on output stabilization relative to inflation stabilization; but the opposite is true in the case of local currency pricing.     

“金砖四国”生产性服务贸易结构与竞争力研究

本文从进出口总量、结构和贸易竞争力三个角度,采用RCA指数和TC指数对金砖四国生产性服务贸易进行比较研究,结论是:与印度、俄罗斯和巴西相比,中国生产性服务贸易逆差较大,生产性服务贸易进出口结构很不合理,知识技术密集型生产性服务贸易竞争力较弱,处于比较劣势。因此要着力提高我国生产性服务贸易的国际竞争力,优化服务贸易结构,为我国工业化的发展注入新的能量。     

Explaining asset pricing puzzles associated with the 1987 market crash

The 1987 market crash was associated with a dramatic and permanent steepening of the implied volatility curve for equity index options, despite minimal changes in aggregate consumption. We explain these events within a general equilibrium framework in which expected endowment growth and economic uncertainty are subject to rare jumps. The arrival of a jump triggers the updating of agents' beliefs about the likelihood of future jumps, which produces a market crash and a permanent shift in option prices. Consumption and dividends remain smooth, and the model is consistent with salient features of individual stock options, equity returns, and interest rates.     

Adding and subtracting Black-Scholes: A new approach to approximating derivative prices in continuous-time models

We develop a new approach to approximating asset prices in the context of continuous-time models. For any pricing model that lacks a closed-form solution, we provide a closed-form approximate solution, which relies on the expansion of the intractable model around an “auxiliary” one. We derive an expression for the difference between the true (but unknown) price and the auxiliary one, which we approximate in closed-form, and use to create increasingly improved refinements to the initial mispricing induced by the auxiliary model. The approach is intuitive, simple to implement, and leads to fast and extremely accurate approximations. We illustrate this method in a variety of contexts including option pricing with stochastic volatility, computation of Greeks, and the term structure of interest rates.     

经济周期、前景理论与BHS资产定价模型修正

行为资产定价研究引起了国内外的广泛关注,但由于现实资本市场中诸多异象的存在,导致人们对经典资产定价模型的质疑。经济周期波动会对投资者的理性产生显著影响,而非理性投资可能引发金融危机。据此,引入经济周期这一独特视角,剖析前景理论对资产定价的作用机理;提出相关假设,对BHS模型进行修正,以适应经济周期影响下的行为资产定价问题研究。     

关于三月浮息债负利差产生的原因与投资建议

该文基于Shibor报价工作实践,首先从投资者类型、债券流动性等多角度列举了浮息债定价的影响因素,分析了当前3M_Shibor浮息债利差持续为负的原因,然后在探讨归纳3M_Shibor的定价机理和阐释近期Shibor报价新特征的基础上,对3M_Shibor中期走势进行展望,并就投资3M_Shibor浮息债时需关注的问题予以提示。     

股票市场发展对广东产业结构优化的实证分析

本文采取新的产业结构优化综合指标体系,运用格兰杰因果检验方法,实证分析股票市场发展对广东产业结构优化的影响,以此验证股票市场对产业结构优化是否存在积极的效应。研究结果表明:股票市场对广东省产业结构的优化存在积极影响,但效应并不强,对此本文提出了相应的对策建议。     

关于完善重大资产重组股份发行定价机制的思考

根据现行规定,重大资产重组交易中发行股份价格不能低于上市公司董事会决议公告日前20个交易日股票交易均价。但从目前实践看,该机制已不能很好地适应市场发展的需要。为此,本文从现行定价机制在实践操作中存在的问题入手,重点就现行定价机制无法较好反映非流动性折扣和控制权溢价等因素的实际情况进行研究,并通过分析借壳上市、整体上市和向第三方发行股份购买资产三种交易类型在现行定价机制下的利益平衡机制及其存在的问题,对下一步定价机制的改革有针对性地提出了相关政策建议,以期增加定价机制的合理性和灵活性,更好地适应和促进资本市场并购重组业务的发展。     

电力系统继电保护技术的探析

通过对我国电力系统继电保护技术发展现状的分析,探讨继电保护的任务和基本要求,从分析当前继电保护装置的广泛应用,提出保护装置维护的几点建议,结合实际情况,探讨继电保护发展的趋势。     

基于期权的农产品供应链模式分析

首先分析了农产品供应链的一般模式及其存在的问题,然后结合期权理论与农产品供应链的自身特点,以及我国现阶段农民专业合作社的特点及发展情况,提出了新的模式＂公司＋农民专业合作社＋农户＋期权＂。在此模式的基础上,运用经典的Black-Scholes期权定价模型对棉花供应链进行实例分析,说明了在农产品供应链中引入新模式之后,供应链实现了收益共享、风险共担,由此促进了农村经济的发展。