The lower bound and the causes of monetary policy inertia: evidence from Sweden

In 2009, in the midst of a global recession, Sweden’s Riksbank approached a lower bound on nominal interest rates. This encounter with the lower bound provides a natural experiment for investigating the causes of monetary policy inertia. To exploit this experiment, we estimate Taylor rules with Tobit specifications that permit both interest rate smoothing and persistent shocks (serial correlation) as explanations for inertia. The interest rate smoothing hypothesis leads to a specification in which lagged actual values of the dependent variable appear on the right-hand side of the Taylor rule, while the persistent shocks hypothesis leads to a specification in which lagged values of an unobserved latent dependent variable appear on the right-hand side of the Taylor rule. The divergence of actual and latent dependent variables that occurs at the lower bound provides leverage in distinguishing the two hypotheses. For a conventional Taylor rule, we find evidence of both sources of inertia. For a modified Taylor rule that includes a measure of financial stress, our evidence suggests that interest rate smoothing is the principal source of monetary policy inertia.     

陕西省耕地利用效率及其影响因素研究

研究目的:对陕西省1990—2008年期间耕地利用效率变化状况及其外部影响因素进行实证分析。研究方法:采用DEA-Tobit两步法,运用BCC模型对陕西省耕地利用效率进行评价,通过Tobit模型分析其影响因素。研究结果:(1)各地区间的耕地利用效率存在很大差异,咸阳、延安、汉中、安康4市和杨凌示范区耕地利用效率常年处于有效或高效状态。(2)耕地利用效率的变化主要是由纯技术效率的变化引起的。(3)单位耕地面积农业机械总动力、有效灌溉率、受灾面积占农作物播种面积比重、人均国内生产总值和政策虚拟变量等因素对陕西省耕地利用效率影响显著。研究结论:1990—2008年陕西省耕地利用效率具有较大的波动性,省内各地区间存在较大差异,耕地利用效率同时受多种因素共同影响。     

考虑价格因素的中国全要素生产率计算及其影响因素分析 ——基于Global Cost Malmquist和Tobit模型的实证研究

本文将价格因素引入模型中,基于Global Cost Malmquist指数模型估算全要素生产率,基于全要素生产率分解进一步分析我国的资源错配状况及其来源,并采用Tobit模型对全要素生产率尤其是价格效应的影响因素进行实证分析,研究结果表明:现阶段我国全要素生产率增长存在高估问题,技术进步对我国全要素生产率的正向促进作用日趋显著,由价格扭曲导致的资源错配是现阶段抑制我国全要素生产率进一步提高的主要因素,同时技术进步和价格扭曲加剧了地区全要素生产率差异;对外直接投资、出口贸易和金融发展提高了全要素生产率增长,改善了资源错配,而市场分割和工业占比则起到抑制作用;东部和西部地区的对外直接投资、中部地区的出口贸易以及西部地区的金融发展水平会显著改善地区价格扭曲程度。基于以上研究,提出加快资源配置市场化改革、培育开放的市场化动力、激发金融市场活力、优化产业结构等政策启示。     

Offline and Online Search in Used Durables Markets

This study examines how different information sources are used by consumers prior to their purchase of used durable goods, specifically used cars. We examine how online and offline search are related. Categories of online sources are dealer websites and resale websites, and of offline sources are print media and dealer visits. Prior research on new car purchases finds that online sources substitute for traditional, offline sources such as dealer visits. We examine whether this theory extends to used-car purchases and distinguish between dealer websites and resale websites (a distinction relevant to used-goods markets) by collecting data from a sample of used-car buyers. Because search in different sources can be interrelated, and due to data censoring, we build and estimate a simultaneous equations Tobit model. In contrast to existing research, we find that online search on dealer websites is complementary to and not a substitute for dealer visits. This complementary effect highlights the importance of dealers’ web presence in used markets.     

Farmers' perceptions of benefits and factors affecting the adoption of improved dual-purpose cowpea in the dry savannas of Nigeria

This study links participatory research methods, geographic information systems (GIS) techniques, village and household‐level surveys, and a tobit analysis to examine the adoption and impact issues related to a new technology, improved varieties of dual‐purpose cowpea (IDPC), developed by International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and recently released in Nigeria. The article analyzes factors affecting the adoption and impact of the technology across different socioeconomic domains as defined by degree of market access and population density. The results show multiple benefits from this flexible leguminous crop, many of which relate to the fodder and soil fertility‐enhancing aspects of IDPC rather than higher grain yields per se. The intensity of adoption was affected by different village‐ and household‐level factors in each socioeconomic domain, allowing more sharply defined recommendation domain‐targeting strategies. The multiple research approaches taken also provided useful lessons at different system levels regarding the benefits of, and perceived problems with, this technology for researchers, development practitioners, and policy makers. The collaborative research approaches taken in this study are helping to close the “feedback loop” from farmers back to researchers and others attempting to disseminate the technology, and by doing so, should contribute to faster and more widespread uptake of this technology.     

我国城市医院经营效率实证研究——基于DEA模型的两阶段分析

本文利用数据包络分析(DEA)模型对我国249家城市医院的经营效率进行总体分析与评价,并利用第二阶段Tobit回归模型分析医院经营效率的影响因素。本文通过将医疗品质引入效率评价模型,分析了医疗品质在医院经营效率评价中的作用。本文第一阶段研究结果发现:(1)医疗品质项加入与否直接影响着医院的效率评价;(2)股份制及民营医院的经营效率比其他类型医院的经营效率高,部队医院和事业医院效率较差。第二阶段研究结果表明:病床数、中高级技术人员比例、门诊住院比例、门诊病人治疗有效率、药品收入比例以及门诊人均费用都是影响医院经营效率的重要因素。其中,减轻患者负担、降低药品收入比例、增加中高级医师比例、适当调整医院经营规模、提高治疗病人有效率等都是现阶段提高医院经营效率的有效途径。     

Factors Affecting Capacity Utilisation in English Channel Fisheries

The harvesting capacity of the European fishing fleet far exceeds the reproductive potential of the resource base. As a result, most European Union fisheries are both biologically and economically over‐exploited. A series of fleet‐reduction policies have been introduced in order to bring the harvesting capacity in line with target output levels. However, the existence of unutilised capacity may reduce the effectiveness of these schemes as the remaining vessels may increase their individual capacity utilisation (CU), thus offsetting the effects of fleet reduction. In this paper, the effects of stock abundance, output prices, fuel prices and fleet size on the rate of capacity utilisation are examined for a range of UK fleet segments operating in the English Channel. Estimates of CU are derived using data envelopment analysis. Results indicate that the average beam trawl vessel, using existing physical inputs, could potentially increase its revenue by a further 50%, assuming current fish stock levels and unrestricted access to resources. The average gill net vessel could similarly increase its output by 43%, scallop dredge by 28% and otter trawl by 14%. The results suggest that changes in stock abundance are the main factor affecting CU, with no significant trends being observed for the economic variables.     

Cigarette and Alcohol Expenditures in Malaysia: Implications for Anti‐Smoking and Drinking Policies*

A number of studies have examined alcohol and cigarette consumption, but none have explored demand for both products simultaneously even though consumption decisions are likely often related. The present study uses microdata from the 2009/2010 Malaysian Household Expenditure Survey. A novel bivariate Tobit model that accounts for error heteroscedasticity is used to estimate Malaysian consumers' decisions to purchase cigarettes and alcohol and amount spent for each. The results indicate that household income and regional location, and the age, gender, education level and occupation type of the household head are associated with consumption decisions and expenditure levels, with some variation by ethnic group, suggesting the importance of these characteristics in policy deliberations to reduce consumption.     

Patterns of employment relationships: the association between compensation policy and contractual arrangements

Firms respond differently to labour market regulations and develop an employment relationship accordingly. We use linked employer–employee data to examine the relationship between compensation policies and contractual arrangements in large-sized firms in Portugal. In this country, the wages are regulated through minimum wage and collective agreement, while employment is protected by stringent employment legislation. The empirical analysis starts with a fuzzy clustering to identify typical compensation policies. Three major segments emerge from this analysis: Competitive, Internal Labour Markets and Incentive. The first segment comprises low-wage firms, which are highly responsive to market conditions. The other two reveal properties of internal labour markets, although the incentive-based firms reinforce the use of discretionary power to differentiate the workforce. Subsequently, we estimate a regression model to examine how the compensation policy interacts with contractual arrangement. Empirical evidence confirms the segmentation predictions, i.e. low, flexible wages and flexible contracts prevail in the same firms. Furthermore, vulnerable categories like young workers and female workers are over-represented in Competitive firms, while high-wages are associated with incentive devices benefiting white-collar employees. Apparently, firms foster inequality among segments of workers and often penalise or favour the same category of workers.