基于BP神经网络的中、美贸易预测研究

根据中、美贸易的经济研究背景,分析中、美贸易重要影响指标,对其进行线性回归分析,发现中、美贸易额与各指标之间不是简单的线性相关,且各指标之间存在相互关系,所以不能用单一的线性回归模型进行预测。而BP神经网络具有非线性映射、自适应学习和良好的泛化能力等特征,运用BP神经网络模型对中、美贸易进行实证预测,大大提高了预测精度,取得了较好的效果。     

论杨小凯教授对国际贸易理论的贡献

著名华裔经济学家杨小凯教授独创了超边际分析方法,提出了新兴古典经济学,并运用这一新的分析方法对传统的国际贸易理论进行了全新的诠释,对国际贸易新兴理论的形成与发展做出了很大的贡献,本文拟对此进行简单介绍,谨以纪念杨小凯教授。     

Are more resources always better for growth? Resource stickiness in market and product expansion

We examine how managerial growth logics combine with financial and human resource slack to influence the short‐term revenue growth of a sample of 112 manufacturing firms drawn from a unique database provided by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation. Our results provide evidence that firms pursuing product expansion logics generally grow more slowly than firms that are not expanding their product base, but that financial slack positively moderates this relationship. We also find that human resource slack enhances short‐term market expansion, but slows down short‐term product expansion. We discuss the implications of these results for resource‐based views of growth. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Audit Fees: A Meta‐analysis of the Effect of Supply and Demand Attributes*

We evaluate and summarize the large body of audit fee research and use meta‐analysis to test the combined effect of the most commonly used independent variables. The perspective provided by the meta‐analysis allows us to reconsider the anomalies, mixed results, and gaps in audit fee research. We find that, although many independent variables have consistent results, several show no clear pattern to the results and others only show significant results in certain periods or particular countries. These variables include a loss by the client and leverage, which have become significant in comparatively recent studies; internal auditing and governance, both of which have mixed results; auditor specialization, regarding which there is still some uncertainty; and the audit opinion, which was a significant variable before 1990 but not in more recent studies.     

International trade agreements, environmental policy, and relocation of production

This paper studies the influence of free trade agreements on national environmental policies and location strategies of polluting firms. It is shown that banning export subsidies makes relocation of production more attractive for firms. When export subsidies are banned relocation is profitable because: (1) the rival firm reduces output due to more stringent emission regulation in the host country of the investment and (2) relocation leads to lower emission tax rate in the original home country of the investing firm. When export subsidies are used, the first effect is absent because the host government is able to use the export subsidy to compensate the negative effect of more stringent emission taxation on domestic shareholders.     

Is Country Diversification better than Industry Diversification?

In this paper, we develop a framework in which one can examine the source of industry and country diversification by examining their underlying return components. We find that the global cash flow factor explains on average 39% of the variation of country cash flows and global discount rates explain 55% of the variation of country discount rates. These are much less than the explanatory power of the two factors over industry cash flow and discount rate variations, which are 72% and 78% respectively. This suggests that global factors are much less important for return components at country level than at the industry level. As a result, both better diversification of expected returns and cash flows across countries determine the larger benefits of country diversification versus industry diversification. Moreover, emerging markets tend to have much smaller co‐movements of both dividends and expected returns with those of the world, suggesting a lower degree of integration with the world goods and financial markets. Our results cast doubt on the prevailing wisdom that country diversification should be replaced by industry diversification.     

The Association of Natural,Social and Economic Factors with Bird Species Richness in Rural England

At a global level, increasing emphasis on sustainable development highlights the importance of maintaining and enhancing biodiversity. Within the European Union, agricultural reforms will have a considerable influence on the links between biodiversity, agriculture and rural communities over the next 10–20 years. An understanding of the associations between biodiversity and the rural economy is important for the development of policies to promote environmentally sustainable economic and social well‐being. However, investigations of this type are frequently hindered by the different ways in which data in the natural and social sciences are collected. In this paper, we develop an innovative approach to combine data using a common spatial unit. We illustrate the application of this approach by examining associations between bird species richness, environmental and socio‐economic variables. Our results show how the statistical relationship between biodiversity and environmental factors is strengthened and contextualised by prevailing socio‐economic conditions. This example highlights the additional insights that can be gained from such an integrative approach, especially in terms of the questions it raises about the inter‐relationships between the social, physical and ecological dynamics of rural environments.     

Testing export-led growth in Bangladesh in a multivarate VAR framework

Although the link between trade and growth has long been discussed, systematic empirical investigation of the relationship has been undertaken only relatively recently. A number of time-series studies exist for individual countries in the area of export-led growth, but for Bangladesh there has been little work in this area. This study seeks to bridge an important gap in the literature, and is perhaps the first to use Johansen's multivariate framework taking the terms of trade as an additional variable for Bangladesh. The findings suggest that the direction of both long and short-term causality is from income to exports. This result is hardly surprising as, for most of the period covered, Bangladesh has followed an inward-looking strategy of development that discriminated against exports.     

Knowledge relatedness and the performance of multibusiness firms

This study examines corporate performance effects of cross‐business knowledge synergies in multibusiness firms. It synthesizes the resource‐based view of diversification and the economic theory of complementarities to conceptualize cross‐business knowledge synergies in terms of the relatedness and the complementarity of knowledge resources across business units of the multibusiness firm. The study hypothesizes that corporate performance is improved when the firm simultaneously exploits a complementary set of related knowledge resources across its business units. In a sample of 303 multibusiness firms, the study finds that synergies arising from product knowledge relatedness, customer knowledge relatedness, or managerial knowledge relatedness do not improve corporate performance on their own. Synergies arising from the complementarity of the three types of knowledge relatedness significantly improve both market‐based and accounting‐based performance of the multibusiness corporation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.