我国财政改革中几个全局性问题的思考

按照党的"十六大"提出的战略构想,未来20年里我们将完成经济体制转轨的任务,实现全面小康.这样的构想意味着,中国经济体制改革目标的实现已从政策设计的角度锁定在1978-2020年的时段内,我们正处在承前启后的转折点上.在政府主导的渐进路径上,政府既推进着市场机制的建立,也同时推动着计划手段的创新,在市场机制发挥作用的同时,又始终承担着计划体制下的诸多任务与责任.财政作为政府政策实施的财力保障,以自身的变动见证了这一过程,与体制转轨进程和经济运行状况有着深刻的互动关系.因此,在这样一个特殊时刻,对财政改革中的一些关系全局的问题进行思考、解释,不仅关系到财政自身的运行,无疑也将直接影响到整个经济发展的绩效.本文主要围绕三个方面的重大问题提出了分析的路径与依据,并做出了基本的评价.     

转移支付与地方政府支出规模膨胀——基于中国预算制度的一个实证解释

自2000年以来,为了缩小地区间差距和促进基本公共服务均等化,我国的财政转移支付规模迅速扩大。本文利用1994-2015年省级年度数据发现,地方政府获得的一般性转移支付和专项转移支付每增加1元,年度一般预算财政支出将分别增加1.61元和2.12元,远远超过本地财政收入增加所产生的影响。这也意味着财政转移支付在我国产生了较大的“粘蝇纸效应”。在2010年提前下达固定数额转移支付指标改革后,一般性转移支付的“粘蝇纸效应”有所下降。使用分月数据的回归结果显示,“年底突击花钱”对专项转移支付“粘蝇纸效应”的贡献最大。本文的研究表明,转移支付引发的地方财政收入的不确定性、转移支付下拨时滞以及刚性的年度预算平衡制度是导致我国地方政府支出规模膨胀的重要原因。本文的研究结论意味着,中央应进一步规范转移支付制度、扩大提前下达转移支付指标的范围、加快转移支付的拨付进度、建立和完善跨年度预算平衡机制、积极防范转移支付的道德风险问题。地方各级政府应该加强预算执行管理,强化预算约束力。     

"省直管县"财政体制改革模式探讨——以湖南为例

"省直管县"财政体制改革是地方政府从政府规模、层级及财政关系等层面实行的一次深远变革,也是地方政府突破中央权力设置的制度壁垒而获得创新效率的一个难得契机,湖南省应从实际出发探索建立地方新型财政管理模式和地方公共产品供应模式.     

Can Federal Grants Mitigate Social Competition?

The European economic integration leads to increasing mobilityof factors, thereby threatening the stability of social transferprograms. This article investigates the possibility to achieveby means of voluntary matching grants both the optimal allocationof factors and the optimal level of redistribution in the presenceof factor mobility. We use a fiscal competition model a la Wildasin(1991) in which states differ in their technologies and preferencesfor redistribution. We first investigate a simple process inwhich the federal authority progressively raises the matchinggrants to the district choosing the lowest transfer and alldistricts respond optimally to the resulting change in transfersall around. This process is shown to increase efficiency ofboth production and redistribution. However, it does not guaranteethat all districts gain, nor that an efficient level of redistributionis attained. Assuming complete information among districts,we derive the willingness of each district to match the contributionof other districts and we show that the aggregate willingnessto pay for matching rates converges to zero when both the efficientlevel of redistribution and the efficient allocation of factorsare achieved. We then describe an adjustment process for thematching rates that will lead districts to the efficient outcomeand guarantee that everyone will gain. (JEL Classification:H23, H70)     

Aging: Some Pleasant Fiscal Arithmetic

Projections of age-related public expenditure growth have raised widespread concerns about fiscal sustainability. This paper examines how total expenditure would develop under four policy rules on public expenditure growth. Some simple arithmetic of expenditure, GDP, and population is reviewed and applied in simulations for 19 OECD countries over 2000–50. A general and a specific conclusion arise from the results. Generally, long-term expenditure projections could benefit from revisiting common assumptions on non-age-related expenditure growth. Specifically, realistic gradual adjustment in non-age-related expenditures could go a long way towards maintaining fiscal sustainability under age-related spending pressures.

Exchange Rate Pegs, Fiscal Policy and Credibility

In a fixed exchange rate regime, an exchange rate change can be a swift way to change the real exchange rate in the short run. Fiscal policy also affects relative prices, and fiscal policy response to various types of shocks can therefore be crucial for the credibility of an exchange rate peg. We develop a model within which fiscal policy plays a crucial role for ensuring the viability and thus credibility of an exchange rate peg. We use the insights of this model to take a closer look at Denmark, which has successfully pursued a fixed exchange rate policy since 1982.

The trust-control nexus in public private partnership (PPP) contracts

This study examines the trust-control nexus in the context of public private partnership (PPP) contracts. It draws on the literature and the case of two UK school PPP contracts with varying degree of trust among the partners to illustrate the role of control in building competence trust and goodwill trust, and how trust in turn affects control. Prior to entering into the PPP contract, under a condition of high risk and low trust, reliance was placed on formal control to evaluate competence trust for the purpose of selecting a preferred bidder, whilst goodwill trust, which takes time to evolve, played no role in the selection process. During contract implementation, formal control formed the basis for demonstrating competence and nurturing goodwill trust. Trust subsequently determined the extent of reliance on formal control and informal control. In the case of School 1, high level of trust led to a reliance on informal control which enabled partners to focus resources on solving problems, whilst formal control operated in the background. In the case of School 2, low level of trust and perceived lack of transparency led to a demand for additional formal control. This study adds to the trust-control literature by shedding light on how trust relates to control, in the context of long-term PPP contracts which are difficult to specify in advance.     

新冠肺炎疫情对我国财政经济的影响及其应对之策

新冠肺炎疫情的发生对我国财政经济造成重大冲击。本文基于当前疫情发展信息,初步评估其对2020年财政收支的影响程度。研究发现,新冠肺炎疫情将导致2020年财政减收增支在1.2—1.7万亿元之间,做好今年的财政平衡工作“压力山大”。因此本文提出,要财政收入、财政支出、赤字债务“三管齐下”、多措并举,一方面调整支出结构,提高赤字率和债务规模,另一方面积极挖掘收入侧的潜力,提高财政部门对于政府收入的统筹安排能力,努力谋求2020年财政收支基本平衡,全力支持国民经济实现“六稳”,保持经济社会稳定。     

准确把握当前疫情防控新形势新任务 全力抓好金融支持疫情防控和复工复产工作

新冠肺炎疫情发生以来,浙江省金融系统积极响应,快速落实,对内严格疫情排查防控,对外做实金融服务保障,及时出台疫情防控金融服务政策措施,精准用好专项再贷款资金,主动对接疫情防控领域重点企业生产资金需求,全力构建本外币政策绿色通道,充分发挥金融在疫情防控工作中的重要作用。当前,我省疫情防控工作已经进入新阶段,全省金融系统要进一步巩固阶段性成果,切实帮扶受疫情影响的困难企业,全面做好复工复产金融服务,坚决打赢疫情防控阻击战。     

西部地区民营经济发展财政支持对策与思考——以四川省达州市为例

改革开放以来,我国民营企业蓬勃发展,民营经济由小到大、由弱变强,在稳定增长、促进创新、增加就业等方面发挥了重要作用,已成为推动我国国民经济发展的重要力量.但是,随着外部环境的深刻变化和受到国内经济下行等多重因素的影响,我国民营企业,尤其是西部欠发达地区的民营企业普遍面临着成本增高、终端市场受限、融资难融资贵、税费负担重等发展瓶颈制约问题.如果这些困难和问题长期得不到有效解决,将会严重影响民营企业的健康发展和阻碍民营经济的快速发展.财政是国家治理的基础和重要支柱.财政部门要充分发挥职能作用,积极支持民营企业健康发展,要以降税减费为主攻方向,减轻民营企业发展中的压力,帮助民营企业做大做强,实现民营经济高质量发展.本课题以四川省达州市为例,提出财政部门支持民营经济发展"1234"工作思路和对策措施,积极推动民营经济发展动力强起来、发展质量高起来、发展速度快起来,为达州加快实现"两个定位"和争创全省经济副中心做出积极贡献.